sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,488

pakukudolphi

0x88e…7489
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$132kvol $7.55M
PnL 30d+$3,718gains $11.7k · losses $2,854
PnL 7d+$3,983win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate46.5%adj 46.7% · 30d 48.5%
Open value$227kcash n/a
Positions32 / 308open / all-time
Max drawdown−26.6%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$136kbelow peak −$2,716Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

62/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 46.5% · shrunk toward 50%17
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity73

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yesclosed+$90.0kIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · Yesclosed+$50.1kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$21.2kUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · Yesclosed+$20.5kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$14.6k

Worst markets

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Noclosed−$90.0kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? · Noclosed−$23.4kWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$13.3kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$11.2kUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) · Khamzat Chimaevclosed−$10.1k

Open positions · 32

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No51.8k89.5¢90.5¢$46.9k+$517+$18
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No44.2k50¢80.2¢$35.4k+$13.3k$0
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No26.7k89¢95.5¢$25.5k+$1,736$0
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No24.9k87.4¢86.5¢$21.5k−$222$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No20.4k77.1¢79.5¢$16.2k+$499−$666
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No17.0k89¢89.5¢$15.2k+$85+$546
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No14.6k65.1¢87.2¢$12.7k+$3,218+$176
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes44.2k50¢19.9¢$8,774−$13.3k$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No9,99483¢83.5¢$8,345+$50+$6,841
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No8,00089¢91¢$7,280+$159$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes9,65360¢57¢$5,502−$290+$73
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No4,85888¢95¢$4,615+$340$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes20.0k19¢18.5¢$3,700−$100$0
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No3,10693.8¢92.5¢$2,873−$41$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No2,81474¢96.4¢$2,713+$630$0
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes4,00055¢54.5¢$2,180−$20$0
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No4,50061¢47.5¢$2,137−$607$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes2,47175¢68.5¢$1,693−$159−$38
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes1,50061¢48.5¢$727−$187$0
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?No71479.9¢98.7¢$704+$134+$626
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?No78475.7¢86¢$675+$81$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes5,00012¢10.5¢$525−$75$0
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes2,97416¢11.5¢$342−$134−$0.26
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No30077¢85.3¢$256+$25−$342
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No24590.8¢97.2¢$238+$16$0
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes37660¢60.5¢$228+$1.88$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes8648¢41.5¢$36−$5.59$0
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes19.2k0.3¢0.2¢$29−$35+$0.01
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes776.5¢1.9¢$1.42−$3.57$0
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Yes5,1000.4¢0¢$0−$20$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes50033¢0¢$0−$165$0
Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Yes505.2¢0¢$0−$2.60$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?89¢17.0k$15.1k47%62Whale
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61¢434$26447%62
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?74¢3,917$2,89947%62
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢3,015$2,38247%62
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?87.2¢15.0k$13.1k47%62Whale
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?82¢561$46047%62
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?91¢5,000$4,55047%62
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?83¢3,263$2,70847%62
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?90¢4,000$3,60047%62
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?0.5¢1,954$9.5947%62
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?3.8¢2,143$8247%62
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?4.5¢2,143$9747%62
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?75¢6,405$4,80147%62
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?60¢10.1k$6,05247%62
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?1.7¢1,954$3447%62
BUY NoIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?92¢45$4147%62
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?87¢7,000$6,09047%62
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?19¢20.0k$3,80047%62
SELL NoWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?91.6¢3,026$2,77147%62
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢8,262$6,44447%62