PnL all-time+$1,385vol $28.2k
PnL 30d−$56gains $2,467 · losses $951
PnL 7d+$1,748win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate48.0%adj 48.9% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$1,866cash n/a
Positions6 / 31open / all-time
Max drawdown−4.4%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$83below peak −$43Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale45
Adjusted win rateraw 48.0% · shrunk toward 50%22
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable50
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noclosed+$1,517Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Noclosed+$900Knicks vs. Spurs · Knicksclosed+$50Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Noopen+$5.01Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? · Yesclosed+$3.62
Worst markets
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$1,534Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yesclosed−$900Knicks vs. Spurs · Spursclosed−$50Trump and Biden shake hands at first debate? · Yesclosed−$42Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed−$15
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 1,431 | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | $1,416 | +$5.01 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 351 | 96.8¢ | 97¢ | $341 | +$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,220 | 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $76 | −$1,534 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 120 | 20.8¢ | 19.1¢ | $23 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 8 | 76¢ | 90.5¢ | $7.14 | +$1.14 | $0 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 7 | 55¢ | 48.4¢ | $3.52 | −$0.48 | $0 |
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