sharpside
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Traders/Rank #159

occasionalAwareness

0x8a4…532b
SharpWhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1.11Mvol $103M
PnL 30d+$15.1kgains $19.3k · losses $190
PnL 7d+$7,437win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate62.9%adj 62.4% · 30d 88.9%
Open value$292kcash n/a
Positions72 / 1,033open / all-time
Max drawdown−11.4%of equity peak
Account age4.8ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.16Mbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

76/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale86
Adjusted win rateraw 62.9% · shrunk toward 50%56
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d91
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity89

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? · Noclosed+$150kWas Trump hacked? · Yesclosed+$71.7kBiden wins the Popular Vote? · Noclosed+$59.2kWill Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? · Yesclosed+$58.4kWill Donald Trump be inaugurated? · Yesclosed+$49.6k

Worst markets

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? · Noclosed−$81.8kWill George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$78.0kWas Trump hacked? · Noclosed−$62.9kWill Trump win Florida by 8+ points? · Noclosed−$56.5kWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed−$54.2k

Open positions · 72

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No60.6k90¢90.5¢$54.9k+$303$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes94.0k48¢56.6¢$53.2k+$8,039+$530
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes63.2k44.3¢81.5¢$51.5k+$23.5k+$9,880
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes62.5k35.5¢75.5¢$47.2k+$25.0k+$8,762
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No27.6k90.6¢97.5¢$26.9k+$1,900+$97
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?No21.0k94¢94.5¢$19.9k+$106+$12
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No34.6k14.8¢23.5¢$8,126+$3,001$0
Plague pandemic in 2026?No8,25394.5¢97.2¢$8,018+$218+$575
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes24.8k29.9¢15.1¢$3,740−$3,676$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes13.7k11.5¢26¢$3,556+$1,989+$1,327
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No11.6k12.1¢22.5¢$2,610+$1,210$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes54.0k6.9¢4.4¢$2,376−$1,347$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yes15.4k46¢9¢$1,386−$5,697+$1,337
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes77.7k3.9¢1.7¢$1,282−$1,756$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No7,07148.2¢18¢$1,273−$2,134+$0.52
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,90943.1¢43.5¢$1,266+$11$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes15.5k18.6¢6¢$929−$1,945+$3,910
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes13.7k19.9¢6.5¢$888−$1,833+$403
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Yes11.0k10.1¢7.5¢$827−$283$0
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Yes60073.6¢40¢$240−$202$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No3,5122¢4.5¢$156+$85$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes2,93820.5¢5¢$147−$456+$241
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yes5,17812¢2.6¢$132−$489+$170
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yes3,23021¢3.9¢$126−$552+$1,041
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?No50022¢21.3¢$106−$3.75$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes39527.5¢26.5¢$105−$3.76+$1,005
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI2,62825¢4¢$104−$553$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes66.6k1.5¢0.2¢$100−$895$0
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes4,60515.9¢2.1¢$94−$638$0
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes3,91621.2¢2.3¢$88−$744+$0.97
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes18.8k1.8¢0.5¢$85−$256$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes2,87011.3¢2.9¢$82−$244+$74
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No8075¢88.5¢$71+$11$0
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?No5689.9¢95¢$53+$2.83$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes4,4543.7¢1.1¢$47−$116−$24
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?OpenAI16110.1¢24.3¢$39+$23$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes2,4441.2¢0.8¢$20−$11$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?Yes5481.1¢3.2¢$18+$12$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes6553.2¢2¢$13−$7.70$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes8085¢0.6¢$4.85−$35$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1,9470.3¢0.2¢$2.92−$2.21$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes3,0410.3¢0.1¢$1.52−$6.89$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?Yes8240.8¢0.2¢$1.24−$5.19$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1,8620.2¢0.1¢$0.93−$2.79$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1,6020.2¢0.1¢$0.80−$2.40$0
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes85.0k5.3¢0¢$0−$4,535−$105
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes57.3k5.3¢0¢$0−$3,031−$20
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes17.0k9.1¢0¢$0−$1,550−$640
Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Yes15.7k0.1¢0¢$0−$15−$0.34
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Yes6,0009.7¢0¢$0−$580−$21
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes5,58422.3¢0¢$0−$1,247−$11
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?Yes5,3680.7¢0¢$0−$38$0
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?No5,00012¢0¢$0−$600$0
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Yes4,6030.6¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by August 31?Yes2,6330.8¢0¢$0−$21+$15
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?No2,00011.1¢0¢$0−$222+$44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No1,45342.3¢0¢$0−$615−$1.43
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?Yes1,42412.9¢0¢$0−$184−$80
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No1,40027¢0¢$0−$378−$11
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No1,20012¢0¢$0−$144−$5.07
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?Yes6967.4¢0¢$0−$51−$1.91
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?Yes6908¢0¢$0−$55−$2.03
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes68740¢0¢$0−$275−$1.54
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?Yes6782.8¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?Yes6373.2¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Yes61814.6¢0¢$0−$90−$3.09
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?No50120.6¢0¢$0−$103−$3.28
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?Yes5005.7¢0¢$0−$29$0
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes40037.5¢0¢$0−$150+$19
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes6212¢0¢$0−$7.49$0
Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?Yes200.3¢0¢$0−$0.06$0
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes10.3¢0¢$0$0$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?94¢19.9k$18.7k63%76WhaleSharp
SELL YesWill Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?68.5¢2,500$1,71363%76Sharp
BUY YesWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?45¢1,578$71063%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?90¢60.0k$54.0k63%76WhaleSharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?75¢80$6063%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?48¢100k$48.0k63%76WhaleSharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?18¢140$2563%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?18¢211$3863%76Sharp
BUY NoAnthropic IPO before 2027?17¢10$1.7063%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?23¢6,910$1,58963%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?98.9¢300$29763%76Sharp
BUY YesFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?19¢500$9563%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?95.8¢244$23463%76Sharp
BUY NoWill CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?89.9¢56$5063%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?98.8¢660$65263%76Sharp
BUY YesWill BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?97.6¢500$48863%76Sharp
BUY YesWill BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?94.1¢144$13563%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?98¢364$35763%76Sharp
SELL UnderMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?70.7¢2,700$1,90963%76Sharp
BUY UnderMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?32¢2,200$70463%76Sharp