PnL all-time−$418vol $21.4k
PnL 30d−$43gains $188 · losses $5.30
PnL 7d+$23win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate55.9%adj 55.2% · 30d 90.9%
Open value$200cash n/a
Positions19 / 164open / all-time
Max drawdown−60.7%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 1h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$553below peak −$580Oct 15
SharpScore inputs
41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 55.9% · shrunk toward 50%38
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity39
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET · Downclosed+$96Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET · Upclosed+$79Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET · Upclosed+$75Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET · Upclosed+$67Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET · Downclosed+$61
Worst markets
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET · Upclosed−$100Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET · Downclosed−$100Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Noclosed−$100Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET · Upclosed−$100Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yesclosed−$100
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 857 | 4.7¢ | 11.4¢ | $98 | +$58 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 24 | 83¢ | 95.7¢ | $23 | +$3.05 | $0 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 53 | 57¢ | 42.5¢ | $22 | −$7.63 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 52 | 57.4¢ | 33.5¢ | $18 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 189 | 52.9¢ | 5.1¢ | $9.63 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 121 | 16.5¢ | 7.5¢ | $9.11 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 125 | 16¢ | 5.5¢ | $6.88 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 132 | 75.5¢ | 4.9¢ | $6.49 | −$94 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 63 | 16¢ | 6¢ | $3.75 | −$6.25 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 109 | 9.2¢ | 3.4¢ | $3.70 | −$6.30 | $0 |
Recent trades
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