| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 5,000 | 80.5¢ | 81.5¢ | $4,075 | +$52 | +$52 | |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 3,948 | 42.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $3,691 | +$2,004 | +$436 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 2,500 | 98¢ | 98.8¢ | $2,469 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 2,500 | 91¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,237 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,210 | 75.8¢ | 67¢ | $1,481 | −$194 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 1,288 | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | $1,287 | +$164 | +$62 | |
| Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | No | 1,333 | 89¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,246 | +$60 | $0 | |
| Will over 68 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | No | 1,129 | 91¢ | 95.7¢ | $1,080 | +$54 | +$2.01 | |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 85.7¢ | 96.6¢ | $966 | +$109 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 1,000 | 92¢ | 95¢ | $949 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 1,007 | 82¢ | 90.5¢ | $912 | +$86 | $0 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 800 | 97.3¢ | 98.8¢ | $790 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | Yes | 2,500 | 24¢ | 24.5¢ | $613 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 1,000 | 55¢ | 59.5¢ | $595 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 96.3¢ | 97.2¢ | $486 | +$4.50 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 667 | 64¢ | 65.5¢ | $437 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 450 | 95.2¢ | 96.9¢ | $436 | +$7.38 | $0 | |
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 450 | 93¢ | 94.5¢ | $425 | +$6.75 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a vex? | No | 400 | 88¢ | 93.6¢ | $374 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 361 | 85.1¢ | 99.5¢ | $360 | +$52 | +$0.76 | |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 65.9¢ | 79.5¢ | $318 | +$55 | +$112 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? | No | 315 | 92.4¢ | 96.2¢ | $303 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 13.8k | 1.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $290 | +$113 | +$27 | |
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 500 | 13¢ | 55¢ | $275 | +$210 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 591 | 5¢ | 42.5¢ | $251 | +$222 | +$37 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 333 | 67¢ | 74.5¢ | $248 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 258 | 86.2¢ | 92.5¢ | $239 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 233 | 82.7¢ | 98.5¢ | $229 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | No | 250 | 86¢ | 85.5¢ | $214 | −$1.25 | $0 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | No | 366 | 31.2¢ | 57¢ | $209 | +$94 | $0 | |
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 344 | 11¢ | 54.5¢ | $187 | +$150 | $0 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 200 | 69¢ | 93.5¢ | $187 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? | No | 234 | 79¢ | 76.5¢ | $179 | −$5.77 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 200 | 83¢ | 83.5¢ | $167 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 98.9k | 0.1¢ | 0.2¢ | $148 | +$30 | +$21 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? | No | 158 | 85.8¢ | 93.1¢ | $147 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | No | 150 | 91.1¢ | 97.6¢ | $146 | +$9.68 | $0 | |
| Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | Yes | 683 | 42.4¢ | 17.5¢ | $120 | −$170 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 134 | 76¢ | 88.1¢ | $118 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 28¢ | 23.5¢ | $118 | −$23 | +$47 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a hoglin? | No | 119 | 81¢ | 98¢ | $117 | +$20 | $0 | |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | No | 138 | 5¢ | 82.5¢ | $114 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31? | No | 123 | 89.5¢ | 92¢ | $113 | +$3.06 | $0 | |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Yes | 725 | 34.3¢ | 15.5¢ | $112 | −$137 | −$1.56 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by magic? | Yes | 573 | 20.5¢ | 19¢ | $109 | −$8.85 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 451 | 29.6¢ | 22.5¢ | $102 | −$32 | −$25 | |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 96 | 69¢ | 99.4¢ | $95 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 107 | 3.4¢ | 86.9¢ | $93 | +$89 | $0 | |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 58.6k | 0.2¢ | 0.2¢ | $88 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 200 | 38¢ | 43.5¢ | $87 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 106 | 83.5¢ | 81.7¢ | $86 | −$1.98 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 99 | 67.4¢ | 85.5¢ | $84 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 88 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $83 | +$2.20 | +$32 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 382 | 43.9¢ | 21.5¢ | $82 | −$86 | −$249 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 242 | 34.9¢ | 33.5¢ | $81 | −$3.43 | +$7.68 | |
| Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | No | 81 | 43.1¢ | 94¢ | $76 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 75 | 90¢ | 99.7¢ | $75 | +$7.28 | $0 | |
| StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 132 | 1¢ | 55¢ | $73 | +$71 | $0 | |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | No | 75 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $71 | +$1.88 | $0 | |
| Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 147 | 61.9¢ | 43¢ | $63 | −$28 | +$1.86 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 9,374 | 0.6¢ | 0.7¢ | $61 | +$6.54 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 75 | 8¢ | 77.5¢ | $58 | +$52 | $0 | |
| Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 105k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $52 | −$157 | +$6.55 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 34.8k | 0.2¢ | 0.2¢ | $52 | −$17 | −$0.76 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 1,468 | 0.8¢ | 3.5¢ | $51 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by the void? | No | 48 | 71.5¢ | 97.5¢ | $47 | +$13 | +$15 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an ender dragon? | No | 48 | 60¢ | 90.5¢ | $43 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 86.6k | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $43 | −$43 | +$32 | |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? | Yes | 48 | 54¢ | 88.5¢ | $43 | +$17 | $0 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 333 | 35¢ | 12.5¢ | $42 | −$75 | +$3.33 | |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 75.0k | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $38 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 34 | 95.3¢ | 99.2¢ | $34 | +$1.33 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 30 and 59 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 33 | 94.5¢ | 99.9¢ | $33 | +$1.78 | $0 | |
| Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 33 | 89.4¢ | 97.6¢ | $32 | +$2.69 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 33 | 91.4¢ | 95.5¢ | $31 | +$1.34 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 50 | 47¢ | 45.5¢ | $23 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | No | 26 | 55.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $21 | +$6.62 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a wither skeleton in a 3rd timeframe? | Yes | 43 | 33¢ | 48¢ | $21 | +$6.42 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | Yes | 500 | 12.2¢ | 3.7¢ | $18 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Yes | 75 | 61.9¢ | 21¢ | $16 | −$31 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%? | No | 20 | 56¢ | 70.5¢ | $14 | +$2.90 | $0 | |
| Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 27.2k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $14 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | Yes | 100 | 3¢ | 10.5¢ | $11 | +$7.50 | +$85 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a piglin? | Yes | 413 | 46.4¢ | 2.5¢ | $10 | −$181 | +$0.28 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a blaze? | Yes | 84 | 42.8¢ | 12¢ | $10 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an elder guardian? | Yes | 249 | 6.3¢ | 4¢ | $9.96 | −$5.74 | +$5.57 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a polar bear? | No | 10 | 45¢ | 96.4¢ | $9.63 | +$5.13 | $0 | |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 166 | 5¢ | 5¢ | $8.29 | $0 | +$0.30 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an ender dragon? | Yes | 85 | 40¢ | 9.5¢ | $8.04 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 7 | 72¢ | 96.9¢ | $6.92 | +$1.77 | $0 | |
| Will "Street Fighter" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 39 | 11¢ | 15.5¢ | $5.98 | +$1.74 | $0 | |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9,223 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $4.61 | −$13 | +$2.21 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a blaze? | No | 5 | 58¢ | 88.1¢ | $4.40 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 4 | 78¢ | 96.9¢ | $3.52 | +$0.69 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8? | No | 1,000 | 74.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $3.00 | −$744 | +$1.27 | |
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | Yes | 208 | 3.3¢ | 1.2¢ | $2.49 | −$4.36 | $0 | |
| Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | Yes | 671 | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $2.35 | −$0.34 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | Yes | 934 | 0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $2.33 | −$0.66 | $0 | |
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 7 | 53¢ | 28.5¢ | $2.01 | −$1.73 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by powder snow? | Yes | 13 | 11¢ | 14.5¢ | $1.93 | +$0.46 | $0 | |