sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,903

Solid-Airfare

0x8c6…44f3
WhalePnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$54.4kvol $6.02M
PnL 30d+$3,015gains $4,638 · losses $2,304
PnL 7d+$995win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate72.4%adj 68.2% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$29.6kcash n/a
Positions63 / 150open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.6%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 8d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$58.4kbelow peak −$5,220Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale68
Adjusted win rateraw 72.4% · shrunk toward 50%71
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable73
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d73
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 63

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Iran leadership change by December 31?No18.0k84¢88.5¢$15.9k+$810$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No5,23878¢84.5¢$4,426+$340$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes4,49777¢83.5¢$3,755+$292−$898
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No3,50093¢93.5¢$3,273+$18$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No1,95151.5¢89.5¢$1,746+$741$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No53214¢82.5¢$439+$364+$1,350
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No8129.6¢94¢$76+$52+$707
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes123k0.6¢0¢$0−$789$0
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No114k8¢0¢$0−$9,092$0
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes104k6¢0¢$0−$6,223−$1,587
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No100.0k0.9¢0¢$0−$900+$2.87
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes63.9k13.7¢0¢$0−$8,776+$413
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes51.3k2.4¢0¢$0−$1,205+$11.8k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes42.2k17.3¢0¢$0−$7,327+$609
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes21.2k14.3¢0¢$0−$3,017−$3,990
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes17.2k9.9¢0¢$0−$1,715+$8,314
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Yes15.2k7.1¢0¢$0−$1,081+$208
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes13.1k18.5¢0¢$0−$2,425−$229
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?Yes12.9k5.2¢0¢$0−$672$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?Yes12.7k25.2¢0¢$0−$3,196+$1.40
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No11.4k33.9¢0¢$0−$3,852+$950
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Yes11.1k13.3¢0¢$0−$1,479$0
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?No9,9385.7¢0¢$0−$567$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes9,5347¢0¢$0−$667+$18.9k
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Yes9,00413.4¢0¢$0−$1,207$0
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Yes7,60111.2¢0¢$0−$852+$3,169
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No7,20054.5¢0¢$0−$3,920+$381
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes5,88417.4¢0¢$0−$1,024−$1,109
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Yes5,70018.3¢0¢$0−$1,043+$729
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No4,5838.1¢0¢$0−$370$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?Yes4,5776.9¢0¢$0−$316−$12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No4,14324.8¢0¢$0−$1,028+$1,417
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No4,00025¢0¢$0−$999$0
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes3,5565.5¢0¢$0−$195+$3,313
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Yes3,25013.7¢0¢$0−$445+$620
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes2,73519.4¢0¢$0−$531$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No2,70340.7¢0¢$0−$1,099$0
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Yes2,6570.8¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes2,52120.1¢0¢$0−$506$0
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes2,50020¢0¢$0−$500$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?Yes2,00091¢0¢$0−$1,820+$106
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No1,98524.8¢0¢$0−$491+$1,352
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes1,85333.8¢0¢$0−$626$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No1,80040¢0¢$0−$720+$108
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?No1,77855.7¢0¢$0−$990−$229
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Yes1,6259¢0¢$0−$147$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Yes1,10791.4¢0¢$0−$1,011+$1,024
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?No1,06710¢0¢$0−$107+$1,173
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes1,05311.1¢0¢$0−$116$0
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?No95014.6¢0¢$0−$138$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Yes93814¢0¢$0−$131−$2,665
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes75443¢0¢$0−$324−$175
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes50010¢0¢$0−$50+$2,912
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes50042.8¢0¢$0−$214+$777
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes4596¢0¢$0−$27$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes4474.8¢0¢$0−$21$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?No27321¢0¢$0−$57+$1,661
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes23050¢0¢$0−$115+$2.35
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No2219¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?Yes20092.8¢0¢$0−$186+$255
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?Yes1135.5¢0¢$0−$6.23$0
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes1059¢0¢$0−$5.90$0
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Yes831¢0¢$0−$2.33$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?23.3¢9,000$2,09472%63
BUY YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?77¢7,719$5,94472%63
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?78¢5,238$4,08572%63
BUY NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?48¢5,000$2,40072%63
BUY NoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?48¢3,222$1,54672%63
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?88¢15.0k$13.2k72%63Whale
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?61.8¢1,219$75372%63
BUY NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?93¢1,500$1,39572%63
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?79¢30.0k$23.7k72%63Whale
BUY NoKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?93¢2,000$1,86072%63
BUY NoIran leadership change by December 31?84¢18.0k$15.1k72%63Whale
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?42.4¢2,000$84872%63
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?43.3¢1,500$64972%63
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?11.5¢6,000$68872%63
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?2¢2,683$5472%63
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?85¢4,000$3,40072%63
SELL NoIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?61.7¢2,200$1,35872%63
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?2.6¢10.8k$28272%63
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?10¢13.0k$1,30272%63
SELL YesUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?98.6¢1,000$98672%63