| Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? | Yes | 393 | 83.9¢ | 94.3¢ | $371 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | Yes | 2,351 | 18.7¢ | 9.5¢ | $223 | −$216 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 230 | 86.8¢ | 94.5¢ | $218 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 673 | 29.7¢ | 29.3¢ | $197 | −$3.08 | −$56 | |
| SSI public model released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,450 | 17.1¢ | 12.5¢ | $181 | −$67 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 666 | 33.3¢ | 26.5¢ | $177 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 214 | 93.4¢ | 81.6¢ | $175 | −$25 | +$4.33 | |
| SSI public model released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 314 | 56.1¢ | 48¢ | $151 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 217 | 46¢ | 63.5¢ | $138 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 167 | 60¢ | 76¢ | $127 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 255 | 47.1¢ | 47¢ | $120 | −$0.34 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 184 | 54.2¢ | 59.5¢ | $110 | +$9.69 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 264 | 40.5¢ | 27¢ | $71 | −$36 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 274 | 29.2¢ | 25¢ | $68 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 455 | 11¢ | 13.5¢ | $61 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 72 | 83¢ | 72.6¢ | $52 | −$7.55 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | Yes | 199 | 36.8¢ | 25.7¢ | $51 | −$22 | +$7.00 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 283 | 14.2¢ | 18¢ | $51 | +$11 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 588 | 17¢ | 8.5¢ | $50 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes | 792 | 7.6¢ | 6¢ | $48 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 294 | 17¢ | 16¢ | $47 | −$2.94 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 53 | 75¢ | 88¢ | $47 | +$6.93 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 234 | 25.7¢ | 19.5¢ | $46 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 86 | 32.4¢ | 49.5¢ | $43 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 726 | 12.4¢ | 5.5¢ | $40 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | Yes | 37 | 67¢ | 93¢ | $35 | +$9.70 | $0 | |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 90 | 33.3¢ | 34¢ | $31 | +$0.60 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 38 | 80¢ | 72.5¢ | $27 | −$2.81 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 138 | 20.3¢ | 19¢ | $26 | −$1.76 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 37 | 81¢ | 65¢ | $24 | −$5.93 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | Yes | 198 | 24.3¢ | 9.7¢ | $19 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 36 | 53¢ | 50.5¢ | $18 | −$0.89 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 111 | 9¢ | 14.5¢ | $16 | +$6.11 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 41 | 41¢ | 38.5¢ | $16 | −$1.01 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | No | 57 | 35¢ | 23¢ | $13 | −$6.86 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 26¢ | 6.5¢ | $13 | −$39 | +$97 | |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 100 | 56¢ | 12.6¢ | $13 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 1,275 | 8¢ | 0.9¢ | $11 | −$91 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | Yes | 143 | 7¢ | 7.5¢ | $11 | +$0.71 | $0 | |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 83 | 60¢ | 10¢ | $8.33 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | No | 26 | 19¢ | 30.5¢ | $8.03 | +$3.03 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 18 | 55.3¢ | 37.5¢ | $6.79 | −$3.21 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? | Yes | 537 | 1.9¢ | 0.9¢ | $4.84 | −$5.16 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 20 | 49¢ | 15.5¢ | $3.16 | −$6.84 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 83 | 1.2¢ | 2.8¢ | $2.33 | +$1.33 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 718 | 1¢ | 0.2¢ | $1.08 | −$5.91 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | Yes | 43 | 23.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $1.06 | −$8.94 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 12.4k | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,738 | +$915 | |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12.3k | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$373 | −$11 | |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,679 | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$738 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | Yes | 4,506 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | Yes | 3,850 | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$210 | −$9.91 | |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | Norway | 3,557 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$223 | −$9.84 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | Yes | 1,724 | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,673 | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | −$1.74 | |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England? | Yes | 1,429 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$2.79 | |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,423 | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$180 | −$5.87 | |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | Yes | 1,413 | 18.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$265 | $0 | |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | Yes | 1,041 | 20.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$210 | −$6.64 | |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | Switzerland | 1,024 | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | −$11 | |
| Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | −$0.05 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | Yes | 982 | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$308 | $0 | |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | Yes | 928 | 31.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$290 | −$8.15 | |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | France | 799 | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | −$2.74 | |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | Yes | 750 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.75 | −$0.43 | |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 657 | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$3.39 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 647 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.00 | −$0.20 | |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | Yes | 631 | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$187 | −$3.83 | |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 627 | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$88 | −$46 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Yes | 569 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | Yes | 556 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 542 | 34.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$187 | −$4.06 | |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain? | Yes | 526 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.49 | |
| Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04? | Yes | 500 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$0.49 | |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | Yes | 476 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$1.40 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 434 | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$1.12 | |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 406 | 75.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$305 | −$2.75 | |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | Argentina | 395 | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$1.39 | |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 369 | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | −$2.50 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 367 | 13.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | −$1.54 | |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | Yes | 366 | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | −$2.16 | |
| Will Iceland win on 2026-09-26? | Yes | 364 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | −$1.78 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 363 | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | −$0.71 | |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 341 | 50.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$173 | −$3.31 | |
| France leading at halftime? | Yes | 321 | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.68 | |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | Yes | 308 | 25.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | −$2.81 | |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | Yes | 279 | 43¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | −$3.39 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | Yes | 205 | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.50 | −$45 | |
| Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain? | Yes | 185 | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.47 | |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | Yes | 164 | 38.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$63 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 111 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.36 | |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | France | 108 | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.45 | |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | Yes | 90 | 22.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.61 | |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | Yes | 88 | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.77 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | Yes | 83 | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | −$3.33 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | Yes | 78 | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.35 | |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium? | Yes | 77 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.43 | |
| Will Iceland win on 2026-10-06? | Yes | 54 | 56¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | −$0.65 | |