sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

hoodedmonkey

0x8f0…2033
<30d oldPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$63vol $17.4k
PnL 30d−$79gains $340 · losses $410
PnL 7d−$145win rate 7d 51.2%
Win rate52.1%adj 51.5% · 30d 52.1%
Open value$2,453cash n/a
Positions28 / 77open / all-time
Max drawdown0%of equity peak
Account age15dlast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

Not enough history to draw an equity curve.

SharpScore inputs

47/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale26
Adjusted win rateraw 52.1% · shrunk toward 50%29
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable63
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen+$94Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M? · Yesclosed+$74Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$48Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesclosed+$43Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen+$40

Worst markets

Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more? · Yesclosed−$115Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M? · Yesopen−$100Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$81Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$65Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? · Yesclosed−$62

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes81186¢79.5¢$645−$52+$13
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes51090¢88.1¢$449−$9.72+$25
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Yes30088¢97.1¢$291+$27+$12
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?Yes26087.9¢95.7¢$249+$20+$8.80
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes25351.4¢83¢$210+$80+$14
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Yes35258.6¢53.5¢$188−$18−$7.23
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes10673.2¢91.5¢$97+$19+$20
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes9459¢61.5¢$58+$2.36$0
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 28?No5090¢93¢$47+$1.50+$1.50
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Yes4880.1¢95.8¢$46+$7.58+$20
Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?Yes4572.9¢89.6¢$40+$7.48+$25
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes3867¢95.5¢$37+$11+$4.38
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes4660¢67.5¢$31+$3.45+$2.76
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Yes4650¢51.4¢$24+$0.64−$1.48
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?Yes2521¢35.3¢$8.85+$3.58$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?No965¢60.5¢$5.63−$0.42−$1.07
Will OpenRouter process between 725T and 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?Yes7033.2¢7¢$4.90−$18−$9.16
Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes854¢58¢$4.64+$0.32$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?Yes954¢44¢$3.96−$0.90$0
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes2573.4¢1.5¢$3.73−$4.89$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?No5513.1¢5.1¢$2.82−$4.44$0
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes10083¢2.1¢$2.10−$81$0
Will OpenRouter process at least 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?Yes234.5¢91.5¢$1.95+$1.21$0
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?Yes10040¢1.4¢$1.40−$39$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?Yes1113.5¢12.5¢$1.38−$0.11$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?12.8¢200$2652%47
BUY YesWill the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?60¢46$2852%47
SELL NoWill the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?55¢11$5.8852%47
SELL YesColorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?75.9¢20$1552%47
SELL UnderAl Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: Al Nassr Saudi Club O/U 1.517.2¢100$1752%47
SELL YesWill Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election?99.9¢19$1952%47
SELL NoWill United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?98.2¢19$1952%47
SELL NoWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?97.8¢20$2052%47
SELL YesWill Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?46.8¢50$2352%47
SELL YesWill Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?80¢25$2052%47
SELL YesWill the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?60¢46$2852%47
SELL YesWill voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?5.4¢180$9.6952%47
SELL YesWill OpenRouter process between 725T and 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?28¢110$3152%47
SELL YesWill "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?3.3¢10$0.3352%47
SELL YesWill Claude go down 5-7 times in October?87¢40$3552%47
SELL Piera RodriguezUFC Fight Night: Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)71¢50$3652%47
SELL NoWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?99.8¢40$4052%47
SELL YesWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?80.1¢34$2752%47
SELL NoWill "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?92.6¢46$4352%47
SELL YesWill Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?80¢60$4852%47