sharpside
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Traders/Rank #17,778

TimothyKennedy1931

0x8f3…f9d4@Joy693723778125
PoliticsSportCultureOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,094vol $394k
PnL 30d+$130gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$165win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate53.3%adj 53.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,407cash n/a
Positions71 / 542open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 5mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$1,073below peak −$2,604Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

25/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 53.3% · shrunk toward 50%33
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 71

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic1,01064¢95.3¢$962+$316$0
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over65051¢100¢$650+$319$0
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?No25699.9¢100¢$256+$0.26$0
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes58074.2¢37.6¢$218−$213$0
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois PanthersEastern Illinois Panthers10974.9¢100¢$109+$27$0
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?No7085.7¢97.8¢$68+$8.46+$3.56
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?No5776¢97.8¢$56+$12$0
Over $18M committed to the Space public sale?Yes1769¢100¢$17+$5.27$0
Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA?No1695.2¢100¢$16+$0.77−$2.14
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No1953¢81.5¢$15+$5.42−$16
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI31344¢4.8¢$15−$123$0
Will Legen_Eth win the Defi App trading competition?No692.8¢100¢$6.00+$0.43+$1.40
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?No515¢100¢$5.00+$4.25−$0.34
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?Yes422¢100¢$4.00+$3.12−$0.60
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No473¢93.5¢$3.74+$0.82$0
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?Yes380¢100¢$3.00+$0.60−$74
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?No249¢89¢$1.78+$0.80$0
Will Elon Musk attend the 2026 State of the Union address?No169¢100¢$1.00+$0.31+$48
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes422¢3.5¢$0.14−$0.74−$0.23
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.5Under1,92554.9¢0¢$0−$1,057$0
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI86513.9¢0¢$0−$120$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETUp72876¢0¢$0−$553$0
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes68111.3¢0¢$0−$77$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?Yes59813¢0¢$0−$78$0
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No54424¢0¢$0−$131$0
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?No51622¢0¢$0−$114$0
Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (February 22)No50149¢0¢$0−$245$0
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 6 be between 2,100,000 and 2,300,000?Yes48612¢0¢$0−$58$0
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETDown44427¢0¢$0−$120$0
Olympiacos B.C. vs. FenerbahceFenerbahce43148.8¢0¢$0−$210$0
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 11PM ETUp33350¢0¢$0−$167$0
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?Yes29721¢0¢$0−$62$0
New pandemic in 2025?Yes2211.4¢0¢$0−$3.09$0
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Yes2031.2¢0¢$0−$2.44$0
Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?No19235¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?Yes1821.8¢0¢$0−$3.28$0
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?Yes1581.1¢0¢$0−$1.74$0
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?No14875.3¢0¢$0−$111$0
Rippling IPO in 2025?Yes1451.1¢0¢$0−$1.59$0
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes1422.1¢0¢$0−$2.98$0
Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?Yes1231.8¢0¢$0−$2.21$0
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?Yes1231.6¢0¢$0−$1.97$0
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO in 2025?Yes1151.5¢0¢$0−$1.73$0
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?Yes1073¢0¢$0−$3.21$0
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025?Yes901.1¢0¢$0−$0.99$0
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Yes851.3¢0¢$0−$1.10$0
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?Yes792¢0¢$0−$1.58$0
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?Yes7525¢0¢$0−$19−$40
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?Yes692.4¢0¢$0−$1.66−$0.31
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?No6977¢0¢$0−$53$0
Will the Boston Celtics make the NBA Playoffs?No6733.7¢0¢$0−$23−$15
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes5314¢0¢$0−$7.42−$8.96
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?Yes523¢0¢$0−$1.56−$2.58
IDF Chief Eyal  Zamir out by December 31, 2025?Yes463¢0¢$0−$1.38$0
GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?Yes451.7¢0¢$0−$0.77$0
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?Yes4410¢0¢$0−$4.40−$0.79
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?No435¢0¢$0−$2.15$0
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?Yes426¢0¢$0−$2.52$0
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?Yes315.2¢0¢$0−$1.61$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?Yes272.2¢0¢$0−$0.59+$1.44
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No2538¢0¢$0−$9.50$0
Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on December 5, 2025?Yes2019¢0¢$0−$3.80$0
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?Yes1836¢0¢$0−$6.48−$121
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-05?Yes1232¢0¢$0−$3.84+$164
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes127¢0¢$0−$0.84$0
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?No1171¢0¢$0−$7.66−$3.80
Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?No423.4¢0¢$0−$0.94−$79
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No337¢0¢$0−$1.11+$15
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?No398.4¢0¢$0−$2.95+$0.16
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes28¢0¢$0−$0.16+$17
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?Yes10.7¢0¢$0−$0.01+$0.36

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoBrie Larson as Captain Marvel?38¢389$14853%25
SELL NoBrie Larson as Captain Marvel?39¢148$5853%25
SELL NoWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?19¢485$9253%25
BUY NoWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?26¢485$12653%25
BUY NoWill Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?24¢544$13153%25
BUY NoBrie Larson as Captain Marvel?53¢537$28553%25
SELL NoWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?71¢349$24853%25
BUY UnderUS Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.554.9¢1,925$1,05753%25
BUY NoWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?82¢349$28653%25
BUY OpenAIWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?13.9¢865$12053%25
SELL NoWill Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?42¢680$28653%25
SELL NoWill Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?42¢912$38353%25
BUY NoWill Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?45¢912$41053%25
SELL NoWill "Faze" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?27¢518$14053%25
SELL NoWill Bruno Sangregório as Levi Ackerman (Attack on Titan: THE LAST ATTACK) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Brazilian Portuguese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?40¢973$38953%25
SELL NoWill Bruno Sangregório as Levi Ackerman (Attack on Titan: THE LAST ATTACK) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Brazilian Portuguese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?40¢906$36253%25
SELL NoWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?82¢604$49553%25
SELL NoWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?24¢943$22653%25
BUY NoWill Bruno Sangregório as Levi Ackerman (Attack on Titan: THE LAST ATTACK) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Brazilian Portuguese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?86¢1,879$1,61653%25
BUY NoWill "Faze" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?46¢518$23853%25