sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,793

Isengard1

0x903…b5c3
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$12.9kvol $728k
PnL 30d+$1,265gains $4,388 · losses $2,417
PnL 7d+$453win rate 7d 71.9%
Win rate66.2%adj 65.4% · 30d 71.3%
Open value$9,434cash n/a
Positions46 / 427open / all-time
Max drawdown−15.0%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12.5kbelow peak −$115Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59
Adjusted win rateraw 66.2% · shrunk toward 50%64
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable88
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity85

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,776Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Noclosed+$1,084Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$889Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Noclosed+$881Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? · Yesclosed+$856

Worst markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$819LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Noclosed−$748Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yesclosed−$622Fed rate hike in 2026? · Noclosed−$336Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · Yesclosed−$282

Open positions · 46

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1,80082.8¢89.1¢$1,603+$112$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No2,30849.6¢53.5¢$1,235+$90+$9.20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes3,49534¢33.5¢$1,171−$17−$102
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No1,79868.3¢57.5¢$1,034−$194−$0.20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,55966.2¢64.5¢$1,005−$27−$6.65
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No1,05262.9¢74.5¢$784+$122$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes2,11527¢22.5¢$476−$96+$5.50
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No50076¢74.5¢$373−$7.50$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes47060¢62.5¢$294+$12$0
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Yes30075¢73.5¢$221−$4.50$0
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?No30080¢67.5¢$203−$38$0
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes43038.4¢47¢$202+$37+$0.29
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes60123.7¢29.5¢$177+$35+$19
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No14084¢83.5¢$117−$0.70$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes50021¢17.5¢$88−$18+$148
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes30014¢17.5¢$53+$11$0
Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Yes19818¢26.5¢$52+$17$0
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?No10068¢49.5¢$50−$19$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No20021.9¢23.5¢$47+$3.11−$33
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 5%-10%?No5181¢85.5¢$44+$2.31$0
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?Yes6352¢48¢$30−$2.52$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?No3179.4¢78.7¢$25−$0.23−$42
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?No4008¢5.5¢$22−$10$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?Yes4052.5¢53.5¢$21+$0.40$0
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Yes4008¢5.2¢$21−$11$0
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?No2485¢66¢$16−$4.60$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes7320¢17.5¢$13−$1.82$0
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?No2058.4¢60.5¢$12+$0.42+$16
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?No6020¢18.5¢$11−$0.90$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?No2152¢52.5¢$11+$0.10$0
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?Yes2155¢44.5¢$9.44−$2.23+$0.39
Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?No1354¢72¢$9.23+$2.31$0
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No681¢89¢$5.62+$0.51$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes352¢3.5¢$1.19+$0.50$0
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Yes271¢20¢$0.42−$1.08$0
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?Yes20014¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will Andy Burnham say "Police" during the next PMQ?No19044.5¢0¢$0−$84−$5.36
Will Andy Burnham say "Budget" during the next PMQ?No19020.2¢0¢$0−$38−$0.30
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?Yes1509¢0¢$0−$14$0
Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?No13268.9¢0¢$0−$91−$34
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?Yes2630¢0¢$0−$7.80+$12
Will Andy Burnham say "Defence" during the next PMQ?No2038¢0¢$0−$7.60$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?No1522¢0¢$0−$3.35+$0.57
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?No1169.9¢0¢$0−$7.55−$4.93
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Yes237¢0¢$0−$0.59−$29
Will NRPUP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?No18¢0¢$0−$0.10−$4.32

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?34¢3,657$1,24366%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?64¢300$19266%73Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?90.6¢50$4566%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?22¢25$5.5066%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?14.9¢984$14766%73Sharp
SELL YesWill the Labour Party candidate win 45-50% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?20¢206$4166%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?31.5¢409$12966%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?85.7¢700$60066%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?2¢563$1166%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?10¢100$1066%73Sharp
SELL YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?2.5¢4,500$11366%73Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?32¢1,400$44866%73Sharp
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?35¢200$7066%73Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?49¢20$9.8066%73Sharp
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?51.6¢406$21066%73Sharp
BUY NoWill no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?58.4¢200$11766%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?12.2¢140$1766%73Sharp
BUY NoSaudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026?80¢252$20266%73Sharp
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?53.4¢461$24666%73Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?30¢150$4566%73Sharp