PnL all-time−$2,081vol $4.26M
PnL 30d+$773gains $773 · losses $569
PnL 7d+$296win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate56.1%adj 55.8% · 30d 53.8%
Open value$42.1kcash n/a
Positions7 / 518open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 4h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$443below peak −$7,885Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
36/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.1% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable90
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,240US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Noclosed+$1,932France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? · Noclosed+$1,612Iran leadership change by March 13? · Noclosed+$1,583Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Noopen+$928
Worst markets
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.0k | 88.8¢ | 96.7¢ | $10.7k | +$870 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 10.1k | 86.9¢ | 90.5¢ | $9,096 | +$366 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 10.0k | 90¢ | 90.5¢ | $9,050 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | No | 8,062 | 89.9¢ | 91¢ | $7,336 | +$90 | +$20 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,044 | 88.1¢ | 96.7¢ | $4,878 | +$436 | +$492 | |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | No | 957 | 88¢ | 91.5¢ | $876 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 1,619 | 35.7¢ | 11¢ | $178 | −$400 | $0 |
Recent trades
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