PnL all-time−$1,969vol $3.24M
PnL 30d+$9,226gains $17.9k · losses $9,358
PnL 7d+$4,648win rate 7d 55.0%
Win rate58.0%adj 57.7% · 30d 65.2%
Open value$12.4kcash n/a
Positions9 / 689open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 1h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,523below peak −$8,098Oct 8
SharpScore inputs
37/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.0% · shrunk toward 50%44
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable95
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · Yesclosed+$6,879Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? · Yesclosed+$3,975Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,101Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,865Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,856
Worst markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yesclosed−$7,750Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,399Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? · Yesclosed−$3,121Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? · Yesclosed−$3,064Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? · Yesclosed−$2,887
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | 9,000 | 82.2¢ | 83.9¢ | $7,551 | +$154 | +$353 | |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? | No | 1,426 | 86¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,361 | +$135 | +$63 | |
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? | Yes | 1,300 | 93.7¢ | 93.3¢ | $1,212 | −$5.40 | $0 | |
| Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? | Yes | 940 | 96.7¢ | 95.7¢ | $900 | −$9.01 | +$0.04 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 7,677 | 13.1¢ | 7.5¢ | $576 | −$426 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | No | 524 | 76.8¢ | 68.5¢ | $359 | −$43 | −$17 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,112 | 32¢ | 25.6¢ | $284 | −$72 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 1,000 | 20¢ | 19¢ | $190 | −$10 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | No | 583 | 12¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.58 | −$69 | $0 |
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