sharpside
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Traders/Rank #5,754

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

0x949…468f
1y+PoliticsOtherSportCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$61.2kvol $16.5M
PnL 30d+$115kgains $11.3k · losses $6,034
PnL 7d+$115kwin rate 7d 25.5%
Win rate25.5%adj 26.5% · 30d 25.5%
Open value$4,814cash n/a
Positions761 / 8,847open / all-time
Max drawdown−56.0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 6m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$96.9kbelow peak $0Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

31/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 25.5% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity44

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?Yes89356¢53.5¢$478−$22−$9.77
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes71462.7¢61.1¢$436−$11−$89
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Yes42980¢71.5¢$307−$36$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes56163¢53.5¢$300−$53−$166
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes26280¢76¢$199−$10−$0.22
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes17485.8¢85.1¢$148−$1.22$0
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?No27548¢44.5¢$123−$9.64+$3.59
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Yes16771¢68.5¢$114−$4.18−$1.95
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No88217¢12.5¢$110−$40−$2.21
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?No10393¢91.6¢$94−$1.39−$8.65
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No25837¢33.5¢$86−$9.03+$53
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes12271.5¢68.4¢$83−$3.84−$25
Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31?No8589¢87.5¢$74−$1.27−$1.78
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No8086¢83.5¢$67−$2.00+$20
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?No11875¢54.5¢$64−$24−$7.92
Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No7095.4¢87.8¢$61−$5.32$0
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?No7579¢75.5¢$56−$2.61−$0.24
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?Yes20140¢27.5¢$55−$25$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes6977.7¢77.6¢$54−$0.10−$34
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No10155¢52.5¢$53−$2.51−$40
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?No6378.1¢76.3¢$48−$1.13$0
Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?No5589¢85.5¢$47−$1.93$0
Will Ipswich Town be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes10844¢40.5¢$44−$3.79−$0.12
Will Hungary be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27?Yes5976¢71.5¢$42−$2.65$0
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania?No6585.5¢63.1¢$41−$15−$4.16
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of December 2026?Yes4488¢85¢$37−$1.32−$0.41
Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?No4582¢79.5¢$36−$1.13$0
Will Flamengo win the 2027 Copa Libertadores?No4786¢75.5¢$35−$4.93$0
New pandemic before 2028?Yes25218¢14¢$35−$10$0
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No6059¢56.5¢$34−$1.50−$20
Will Arsenal record the most clean sheets in the UCL league phase?Yes11446¢28.5¢$32−$20$0
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?No5478¢56.5¢$31−$12−$4.24
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?No7054¢43.5¢$30−$7.35$0
Will Michigan State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?U 4.55260¢57¢$30−$1.56$0
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?No3487¢86¢$29−$0.34$0
Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes19723¢14.5¢$29−$17−$9.95
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Yes26217¢10.5¢$27−$17−$1.33
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?No4764¢52.5¢$25−$5.41$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Yes5054¢48.5¢$24−$2.75−$11
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?No6041¢40.5¢$24−$0.30$0
Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027?No4083¢59.5¢$24−$9.40$0
Jumper listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?Yes4068¢56.5¢$23−$4.60$0
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?No4850¢45.5¢$22−$2.16$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?No2880¢76.5¢$21−$0.98$0
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?No6041¢35.5¢$21−$3.30$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes14016¢14.5¢$20−$2.10+$27
Will Florida Panthers advance to the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs?No2876¢72.5¢$20−$0.98$0
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?Yes7620.7¢25.5¢$19+$3.69−$4.83
Will the Detroit Pistons make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?No11120¢17.5¢$19−$2.77$0
Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes14223¢13.5¢$19−$13−$40
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Yes5627¢3.4¢$19−$21+$220
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Yes8531¢22¢$19−$7.64−$1.46
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?No2479.4¢78.1¢$18−$0.32$0
Will Mark Sager win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?No3465¢53.5¢$18−$3.91−$0.32
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Yes2281.7¢78.6¢$17−$0.68−$71
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 25%-30%?No2085¢82.5¢$17−$0.50−$2.85
Will SC Cambuur be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie?No3942¢41.5¢$16−$0.20$0
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?No3252¢49.5¢$16−$0.80$0
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No5138¢30.5¢$16−$3.85$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?No2075¢76.5¢$15+$0.30$0
Will Romeo Doubs have 6.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No2466¢61¢$15−$1.20$0
Will the Denver Nuggets make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?No9818¢14.5¢$14−$3.43$0
Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?No2169¢67.5¢$14−$0.32$0
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?Yes2092¢67.5¢$14−$4.90$0
Will Anna Leigh Waters win six or more Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?No2476¢55.8¢$13−$4.85$0
Will Real Sociedad reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League Round of 16?Yes2949¢46¢$13−$0.87$0
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?No2069¢61.5¢$13−$1.53−$0.12
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31, 2026?Yes2073¢62.5¢$13−$2.10$0
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?No2166¢59.5¢$12−$1.36−$22
Will Arizona have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?No2072¢61.5¢$12−$2.10$0
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No1770.6¢71.1¢$12+$0.09−$78
Virginia Fonseca and Vinícius Júnior confirm breakup in 2026?No2073¢60.5¢$12−$2.50$0
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?Yes3635¢32¢$12−$1.08$0
Will Buffalo Sabres be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?Yes2298.4¢5¢$11−$7.89−$1.30
Will Ella Langley win Entertainer of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?No4656¢24.5¢$11−$14−$5.89
Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?Messi2161¢53¢$11−$1.68$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?No13516¢8¢$11−$11$0
Will Kyren Williams finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?No2075¢51.5¢$10−$4.70$0
Will Haven be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?No2065.5¢51.4¢$10−$2.83−$0.31
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2548¢40.6¢$10−$1.86−$0.63
Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes6619¢14.5¢$9.57−$2.97$0
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes3629¢26.5¢$9.54−$0.90$0
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?Yes2052¢47.5¢$9.50−$0.90$0
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September?Yes2150¢44¢$9.24−$1.26$0
Will SB Energy's market cap be less than $40B at market close on IPO day?Yes13311.1¢6.9¢$9.18−$5.60$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?No2060¢41¢$8.20−$3.80$0
Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?No1560¢51.5¢$7.83−$1.29−$9.64
Will Benin win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group F?Yes3238.2¢23.3¢$7.40−$4.73+$0.18
Will the Arizona Cardinals have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?Yes2038¢36.5¢$7.30−$0.30$0
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Yes4719¢14.5¢$6.82−$2.12−$5.54
Will Jake Oettinger record 4+ shutouts?No2058¢34¢$6.80−$4.80$0
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?No3039¢22.5¢$6.71−$4.92−$22
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes5514¢11.8¢$6.51−$1.21−$7.21
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes4,2261.7¢0.2¢$6.34−$67−$3.61
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga?No1162¢57.5¢$6.31−$0.49+$0.40
Will Colorado have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?O 4.52245¢27.5¢$6.12−$3.90−$5.85
Will a UK social media ban take effect by June 30, 2027?No2137¢27.5¢$5.78−$2.00$0
Will Austria win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3?No5511¢10.5¢$5.78−$0.28$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?Yes2528.7¢22.9¢$5.69−$1.46−$28
Will the median home value in Miami be at least $870,000 on December 31?Yes4114.3¢13.5¢$5.49−$0.32−$0.12

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?25¢10$2.5026%31
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?61¢21$1326%31
SELL NoWill Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?11.7¢2$0.2326%31
BUY YesWill PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?33¢13$4.4326%31
SELL NoWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?75.6¢107$8126%31
SELL YesWill Republicans win the Ohio and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Iowa?18¢2$0.3426%31
BUY YesWill Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026?27¢5$1.3526%31
BUY YesWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?32.5¢477$15526%31
BUY YesWill the US add at least 100k jobs in October?29¢1$0.1826%31
SELL NoWill "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?88.7¢4$3.1626%31
SELL YesReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?25¢20$5.0026%31
SELL NoWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?89.4¢2$1.7926%31
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?9.4¢50$4.7026%31
BUY NoSpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?42¢5$2.1026%31
BUY NoWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?39¢15$6.0326%31
SELL NoWill Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?65¢10$6.5026%31
SELL NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?51¢4$2.0426%31
SELL YesWill Republicans win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?0.5¢3$0.0226%31
SELL YesWill ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?18.9¢1$0.2226%31
SELL NoWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?24¢5$1.1226%31