PnL all-time+$3.46Mvol $18.1M
PnL 30d−$2,550gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$2,810win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate48.6%adj 49.1% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$71.3kcash n/a
Positions8 / 43open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.7%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 3mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$3.46Mbelow peak −$1.00MOct 8
SharpScore inputs
42/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale93
Adjusted win rateraw 48.6% · shrunk toward 50%23
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable54
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity75
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed+$4.46MUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · Yesclosed+$158kWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yesclosed+$86.3kUS strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? · Noclosed+$24.7kWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Noclosed+$18.1k
Worst markets
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$551kWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? · Yesclosed−$150kStarmer out by February 28, 2026? · Yesclosed−$125kUS strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$110kWill Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? · Noclosed−$107k
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 147k | 48.7¢ | 48.6¢ | $71.3k | −$277 | $0 | |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 4,241 | 29¢ | 0.9¢ | $36 | −$1,194 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1? | Yes | 100.0k | 62¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$62.0k | −$1.17 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20.5k | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$651 | −$4.22 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 10.0k | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$800 | −$0.98 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 10.0k | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$129 | −$6.39 | |
| Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1? | Yes | 3,977 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,705 | $0 | |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | Yes | 2,472 | 72¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,780 | −$20 |
Recent trades
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