PnL all-time+$2,812vol $644k
PnL 30d−$363gains $1,094 · losses $99
PnL 7d−$423win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate74.1%adj 73.2% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$4,707cash n/a
Positions42 / 528open / all-time
Max drawdown0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 2d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
Not enough history to draw an equity curve.
SharpScore inputs
78/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale49
Adjusted win rateraw 74.1% · shrunk toward 50%83
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d91
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November? · Yesclosed+$3,196Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? · Yesclosed+$2,890Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April? · Yesclosed+$2,697Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June? · Yesclosed+$1,494Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? · Noclosed+$970
Worst markets
Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May? · Yesclosed−$9,447Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in July? · Yesclosed−$2,491Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? · Yesclosed−$1,239Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yesopen−$1,161US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,143
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 2,700 | 83.5¢ | 83¢ | $2,241 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 549 | 91¢ | 95.7¢ | $526 | +$26 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,400 | 93.2¢ | 33.8¢ | $472 | −$832 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 400 | 92¢ | 95.5¢ | $382 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? | No | 400 | 88¢ | 88.5¢ | $354 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 349 | 86¢ | 96.2¢ | $335 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 2,603 | 56.1¢ | 11.5¢ | $299 | −$1,161 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,400 | 87.1¢ | 5.5¢ | $77 | −$1,143 | $0 | |
| 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31? | No | 20 | 82¢ | 88¢ | $18 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 1 | 83.7¢ | 97.7¢ | $1.38 | +$0.20 | +$24 |
Recent trades
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