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GaioMario

0x94d…9e65@PolyGaioMario
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$11.0kvol $476k
PnL 30d+$4,745gains $3,991 · losses $1,427
PnL 7d+$861win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate68.9%adj 67.9% · 30d 55.6%
Open value$28.0kcash n/a
Positions28 / 382open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.2%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 20h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$18.5kbelow peak −$19Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale58
Adjusted win rateraw 68.9% · shrunk toward 50%70
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable86
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 28

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?No6,39875.3¢86.5¢$5,534+$714$0
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?No3,48174¢90.5¢$3,151+$573$0
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?No4,04849.4¢74.5¢$3,015+$1,015$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No2,87165¢95.6¢$2,743+$879$0
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No2,88132.4¢95¢$2,737+$1,803+$20
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?No1,90053.8¢88.4¢$1,679+$657$0
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?No1,53166¢96¢$1,470+$459$0
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?No1,68580.5¢83.5¢$1,407+$51$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No1,49853.9¢83¢$1,243+$435+$65
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?No1,20046.4¢80.5¢$966+$409$0
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?No94871.5¢88.5¢$839+$161$0
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No57366.3¢83.5¢$478+$99$0
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?No1,30045.9¢36.5¢$474−$122+$9.70
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?No50159.9¢77¢$386+$86$0
Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?No54774.2¢67.5¢$369−$37$0
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?No34556.8¢91¢$314+$118$0
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No46926¢65.5¢$307+$185$0
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?No30270.1¢96.8¢$292+$80$0
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?No20077.5¢97.5¢$195+$40$0
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026?No19074¢97.9¢$186+$45$0
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes1,72313.9¢6.5¢$112−$127$0
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?Yes20038.5¢33.5¢$67−$10.00$0
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?No3780.4¢86.5¢$32+$2.25$0
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2027?No2070¢91.5¢$18+$4.30$0
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?No2050¢79.5¢$16+$5.90$0
Ukraine lowers conscription age by December 31, 2026?Yes2045¢5.5¢$1.10−$7.90$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?No90066.6¢0¢$0−$599$0
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?Yes5020¢0¢$0−$10$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoUS imports Russian diesel by October 31?59.9¢501$30069%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?47.2¢1,059$50069%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?23.5¢1,000$23569%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?8.1¢1,000$8169%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?45.1¢768$34669%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?53.7¢2,030$1,09069%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?39¢105$4169%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?95.5¢1,081$1,03269%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?27¢739$19969%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?34¢150$5169%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?21.1¢300$6369%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?9.4¢328$3169%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?56¢75$4269%73Sharp
SELL YesWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?27.7¢95$2669%73Sharp
BUY NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?57.3¢872$50069%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia capture Svitle by August 31?69¢26$1869%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?86¢702$60369%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?52.1¢1,200$62569%73Sharp
SELL NoWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?16.8¢476$8069%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia capture Svitle by August 31?49¢35$1769%73Sharp