sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,076

devin.lawson.77

0x94d…9ab8
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$7,663vol $775k
PnL 30d+$2,273gains $0 · losses $10
PnL 7d+$1,391win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate78.0%adj 75.0% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$108kcash n/a
Positions51 / 224open / all-time
Max drawdown−43.9%of equity peak
Account age1.8ylast trade 17d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$17.9kbelow peak −$141Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

64/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale55
Adjusted win rateraw 78.0% · shrunk toward 50%88
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d41
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity56

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Noopen+$10.4kWill Curtis Sliwa drop out? · Noclosed+$2,069Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Noopen+$1,540Will Biden finish his term? · Yesclosed+$1,229Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? · Noopen+$627

Worst markets

Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? · Noclosed−$1,775Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$310US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$189Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files? · Noclosed−$174Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? · Yesopen−$163

Open positions · 51

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No74.2k81.5¢95.5¢$70.8k+$10.3k+$48
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?No10.7k88.8¢94.4¢$10.1k+$594+$32
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No8,72793¢93.7¢$8,173+$56−$2.37
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?No5,08389.2¢95.4¢$4,850+$315+$1.08
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No4,94590¢95.5¢$4,723+$273+$1,267
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?No2,83590.8¢97.7¢$2,769+$195+$387
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes26.2k4.3¢5¢$1,299+$181+$23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No72087.3¢97¢$698+$70−$1.05
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No60094¢97.8¢$587+$23$0
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?No60095¢97.5¢$585+$15$0
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?No56892.9¢99¢$562+$35−$0.06
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?No55085¢92.5¢$509+$41$0
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?No42089¢97.4¢$409+$35+$45
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?No31492.6¢97.3¢$306+$15+$473
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes45.9k1.3¢0.7¢$298−$308−$1.95
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No27566.1¢96.3¢$265+$83+$40
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?No20090¢97.5¢$195+$15$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No20093.5¢96.7¢$193+$6.40$0
AI bubble burst in 2026?No10584.6¢94¢$99+$9.87$0
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2027?No10094¢97.9¢$98+$3.90$0
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?No10094.7¢96.6¢$97+$1.90+$2.39
Iran Nuke before 2027?No10092¢96.3¢$96+$4.30$0
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No7096.6¢97.8¢$68+$0.80$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes3786.8¢95.6¢$35+$3.24+$39
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,0004.7¢3.1¢$31−$17$0
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?No2295¢99.2¢$22+$0.91$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQeNo2097.9¢98.1¢$20+$0.04$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No2087.5¢98¢$20+$2.09$0
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?No2090¢95.5¢$19+$1.10$0
Will China make Eric Adams a citizen?No2095¢95.5¢$19+$0.10$0
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?No1095.2¢98¢$9.80+$0.28$0
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No1085¢96.9¢$9.69+$1.19$0
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?No1094.1¢96.5¢$9.64+$0.23+$3.25
Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?No1091¢96¢$9.60+$0.50$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No1075.1¢84.6¢$8.46+$0.94$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No3018.7¢23.5¢$7.06+$1.43+$16
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?No598.7¢97.1¢$4.86−$0.08+$4.53
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No593.6¢96.6¢$4.83+$0.15$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes1044¢37.5¢$3.75−$0.65$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes1045¢35.5¢$3.55−$0.95$0
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes10013¢3.1¢$3.10−$9.90$0
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes1007¢2.2¢$2.15−$4.85$0
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes617.5¢20.8¢$1.22+$0.19−$60
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No185.4¢97¢$1.14+$0.14$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes163.5¢55.7¢$0.56−$0.08+$110
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI18.9¢7.5¢$0.07−$0.01+$1.78
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes112.5¢2.9¢$0.04−$0.13−$17
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes35545.7¢0¢$0−$162−$0.91
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes20026¢0¢$0−$52−$1.54
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes10024.9¢0¢$0−$25$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No1082¢0¢$0−$8.20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?7.6¢99$7.5278%64
SELL OpenAIAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?10.2¢299$3078%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?17.8¢6$1.0078%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?67.6¢201$13678%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?15.8¢202$3278%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?80¢400$32078%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?3.4¢400$1478%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?80.1¢300$24078%64
SELL YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?3.5¢400$1478%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?17¢100$1778%64
BUY OpenAIAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?8.9¢300$2778%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?63.6¢500$31878%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?11.6¢500$5878%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?63.3¢352$22378%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?11.5¢400$4678%64
BUY YesWill OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?63¢50$3278%64
BUY NoWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?89¢800$71278%64
BUY NoIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?88.8¢2,000$1,77778%64
BUY NoIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?88¢100$8878%64
SELL NoWill Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?96.2¢4,484$4,31478%64