| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 13.2k | 50¢ | 80.2¢ | $10.6k | +$3,975 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | No | 5,290 | 92.9¢ | 99.5¢ | $5,261 | +$347 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 13.2k | 50¢ | 19.9¢ | $2,617 | −$3,975 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,401 | 60¢ | 79¢ | $1,897 | +$457 | +$49 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 1,474 | 81.4¢ | 95.9¢ | $1,412 | +$214 | +$3.78 | |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes | 1,827 | 80.5¢ | 69.5¢ | $1,270 | −$200 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Yes | 1,450 | 68.3¢ | 75.5¢ | $1,095 | +$104 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 783 | 81.2¢ | 94¢ | $736 | +$101 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon? | No | 807 | 82.4¢ | 88.5¢ | $714 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win Latino voters in the Texas Senate election? | Yes | 787 | 80.2¢ | 90.5¢ | $713 | +$81 | $0 | |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? | No | 548 | 83.4¢ | 86¢ | $471 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flare? | No | 490 | 86.8¢ | 90.2¢ | $442 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? | Yes | 740 | 55.1¢ | 59.5¢ | $440 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win Latino voters in the Texas Senate election? | No | 448 | 76.7¢ | 95¢ | $426 | +$82 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | No | 520 | 81.7¢ | 81.5¢ | $424 | −$1.09 | $0 | |
| Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 94¢ | 98.1¢ | $392 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T? | No | 399 | 90.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $381 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | Yes | 418 | 41.3¢ | 88¢ | $368 | +$195 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 365 | 92.4¢ | 92.6¢ | $338 | +$0.57 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova? | No | 370 | 81.7¢ | 90.5¢ | $335 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V? | No | 351 | 80.9¢ | 86¢ | $302 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 538 | 57.6¢ | 54¢ | $291 | −$20 | +$6.19 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 26, 2026? | No | 300 | 91.6¢ | 95.8¢ | $287 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | No | 293 | 73.4¢ | 97.6¢ | $286 | +$71 | $0 | |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 382 | 70.7¢ | 74.5¢ | $285 | +$15 | −$1.04 | |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? | Yes | 306 | 79.2¢ | 89¢ | $273 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 319 | 87.9¢ | 84.8¢ | $270 | −$9.89 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame? | No | 288 | 77.7¢ | 85.1¢ | $245 | +$21 | +$23 | |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP? | No | 320 | 71.3¢ | 76.5¢ | $245 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | No | 319 | 48.3¢ | 76¢ | $243 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty? | Yes | 723 | 29¢ | 32.5¢ | $235 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 237 | 0¢ | 97.9¢ | $232 | +$232 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? | Yes | 841 | 23.6¢ | 27.5¢ | $231 | +$33 | +$12 | |
| Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 362 | 52.7¢ | 63¢ | $228 | +$37 | +$16 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31? | No | 219 | 55.9¢ | 97.2¢ | $213 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 255 | 30¢ | 78.5¢ | $200 | +$124 | +$209 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 451 | 84.4¢ | 43.5¢ | $196 | −$185 | +$0.03 | |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 317 | 57¢ | 55.5¢ | $176 | −$4.68 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 250 | 57¢ | 68.5¢ | $171 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 619 | 16.7¢ | 27.5¢ | $170 | +$67 | +$84 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 196 | 49.5¢ | 84.8¢ | $166 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? | No | 161 | 93.5¢ | 99.1¢ | $160 | +$9.08 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 328 | 81.9¢ | 47.8¢ | $157 | −$112 | $0 | |
| Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 160 | 76.2¢ | 97.9¢ | $157 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 146 | 78.5¢ | 98.4¢ | $144 | +$29 | +$29 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | 69.2¢ | $138 | +$137 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 14, 2026? | No | 150 | 83¢ | 87.3¢ | $131 | +$6.38 | $0 | |
| Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by October 31? | No | 154 | 75¢ | 84.5¢ | $130 | +$15 | +$7.21 | |
| Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 200 | 63¢ | 64.5¢ | $129 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 190 | 45.4¢ | 67.5¢ | $128 | +$42 | +$30 | |
| Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 401 | 14.3¢ | 31.4¢ | $126 | +$69 | +$93 | |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31? | Yes | 200 | 34¢ | 58.5¢ | $117 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 64.6¢ | 77¢ | $108 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | Yes | 246 | 25¢ | 43¢ | $106 | +$44 | $0 | |
| Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial second round by less than 5%? | No | 100 | 82¢ | 88.5¢ | $89 | +$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 100 | 64¢ | 87.5¢ | $87 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 140 | 29¢ | 56.5¢ | $79 | +$39 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 99 | 74.4¢ | 80¢ | $79 | +$5.53 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 140 | 27.7¢ | 54¢ | $76 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 122 | 48.1¢ | 60¢ | $73 | +$14 | +$11 | |
| Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 140 | 65¢ | 52¢ | $73 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 95 | 40.9¢ | 76.5¢ | $72 | +$34 | +$33 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 343 | 82.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $70 | −$212 | $0 | |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S? | Yes | 342 | 22.8¢ | 20.5¢ | $70 | −$7.95 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 241 | 13.6¢ | 27.5¢ | $66 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 72 | 39.3¢ | 91.5¢ | $66 | +$38 | +$109 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 17, 2026? | No | 66 | 88.1¢ | 96.4¢ | $64 | +$5.45 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026? | Yes | 280 | 35.3¢ | 22¢ | $62 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 25, 2026? | No | 62 | 93¢ | 99.4¢ | $62 | +$3.94 | $0 | |
| Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader? | Yes | 80 | 51¢ | 75.5¢ | $60 | +$20 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 90 | 55.9¢ | 65.5¢ | $59 | +$8.65 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | No | 82 | 73¢ | 70¢ | $57 | −$2.44 | $0 | |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T? | No | 60 | 81¢ | 90.5¢ | $54 | +$5.70 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala? | No | 60 | 80.9¢ | 89.5¢ | $54 | +$5.13 | $0 | |
| Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi? | Minnesota | 66 | 85¢ | 78.5¢ | $52 | −$4.29 | $0 | |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | No | 133 | 31.4¢ | 38.5¢ | $51 | +$9.42 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 25, 2026? | No | 51 | 93.8¢ | 99.6¢ | $50 | +$2.91 | $0 | |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 60 | 61¢ | 82.5¢ | $50 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? | No | 90 | 53¢ | 54.5¢ | $49 | +$1.35 | $0 | |
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 47m first week streams? | Yes | 95 | 81.7¢ | 51.4¢ | $49 | −$29 | +$61 | |
| Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 153 | 49¢ | 32¢ | $49 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31? | No | 54 | 52.5¢ | 83¢ | $44 | +$16 | +$55 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 44 | 70.1¢ | 92.5¢ | $41 | +$9.82 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026? | No | 40 | 94.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $37 | −$0.44 | $0 | |
| Will Twice release a song in 2026? | Yes | 180 | 73.4¢ | 20.7¢ | $37 | −$95 | +$21 | |
| Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | No | 40 | 91¢ | 91.6¢ | $37 | +$0.26 | $0 | |
| Will Brent Ingraham be the next confirmed Army Secretary? | No | 40 | 86¢ | 90.5¢ | $36 | +$1.80 | $0 | |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.5T? | No | 40 | 69¢ | 84.5¢ | $34 | +$6.20 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | No | 171 | 79¢ | 18.5¢ | $32 | −$104 | $0 | |
| Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | No | 32 | 84.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $31 | +$3.50 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | Yes | 70 | 64¢ | 36¢ | $25 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 24, 2026? | No | 21 | 95¢ | 97.4¢ | $20 | +$0.49 | $0 | |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | Yes | 418 | 44.7¢ | 4.8¢ | $20 | −$167 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31? | No | 20 | 64¢ | 99.2¢ | $20 | +$7.08 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 34 | 56¢ | 57¢ | $19 | +$0.34 | $0 | |
| Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 20 | 40¢ | 97¢ | $19 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 18, 2026? | No | 20 | 93¢ | 96.4¢ | $19 | +$0.67 | $0 | |
| Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 30 | 28¢ | 58.6¢ | $18 | +$9.18 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026? | No | 20 | 80¢ | 86.3¢ | $17 | +$1.26 | $0 | |
| Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #2 song this week? | Yes | 745 | 14.2¢ | 2.3¢ | $17 | −$89 | +$25 | |
