| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 241 | 45¢ | 95.3¢ | $230 | +$121 | +$0.36 | |
| Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 33.3¢ | 39.5¢ | $126 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 23.5¢ | 28.1¢ | $90 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 9.3¢ | 12.1¢ | $39 | +$8.98 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 45 | 71.7¢ | 71.5¢ | $32 | −$0.11 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 4 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 16.8¢ | 8.1¢ | $26 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 8.6¢ | 28.5¢ | $23 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 25.3¢ | 26.5¢ | $21 | +$0.95 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 29.2¢ | 26¢ | $21 | −$2.60 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 37¢ | 36.5¢ | $16 | −$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 13¢ | 65.5¢ | $16 | +$13 | $0 | |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 48.7¢ | 78¢ | $16 | +$5.85 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 27.1¢ | 32¢ | $14 | +$2.20 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 5 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 4.7¢ | 4.2¢ | $13 | −$1.59 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 45 | 16¢ | 28¢ | $13 | +$5.40 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 20.9¢ | 13.9¢ | $11 | −$5.57 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? | Yes | 30 | 36¢ | 36.5¢ | $11 | +$0.15 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 32¢ | 52¢ | $10 | +$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | Yes | 30 | 20¢ | 34.5¢ | $10 | +$4.35 | $0 | |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 245 | 48.3¢ | 4.2¢ | $10 | −$108 | −$0.23 | |
| Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 18.7¢ | 20.2¢ | $9.09 | +$0.68 | $0 | |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 57.5¢ | 43.5¢ | $8.70 | −$2.80 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 5¢ | 2.2¢ | $7.04 | −$9.09 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 57¢ | 26.5¢ | $6.63 | −$7.63 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%? | Yes | 10 | 46¢ | 57.5¢ | $5.75 | +$1.15 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5 | 0¢ | 92¢ | $4.60 | +$4.60 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 19.5¢ | 22.1¢ | $4.41 | +$0.52 | −$0.10 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 3¢ | 5.2¢ | $4.16 | +$1.78 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? | Yes | 30 | 10¢ | 12.5¢ | $3.75 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 20.2¢ | 33.1¢ | $3.31 | +$1.29 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 6.6¢ | 4.1¢ | $3.24 | −$2.01 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 36¢ | 30.5¢ | $3.05 | −$0.55 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win 6 or more Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala? | Yes | 320 | 2.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $2.72 | −$5.04 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 1¢ | 5.9¢ | $2.63 | +$2.19 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 3.6¢ | 5.8¢ | $2.61 | +$0.97 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%? | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | 25.6¢ | $2.56 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%? | Yes | 30 | 20¢ | 8.4¢ | $2.50 | −$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout be 84% or higher in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | Yes | 45 | 5.9¢ | 5.3¢ | $2.36 | −$0.28 | $0 | |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 255 | 0.9¢ | 0.7¢ | $1.78 | −$0.52 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 23.5¢ | 16¢ | $1.60 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 3¢ | 13.3¢ | $1.32 | +$1.02 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 2.0%? | Yes | 30 | 5.6¢ | 4.1¢ | $1.23 | −$0.46 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 12.2¢ | 4.5¢ | $1.13 | −$1.92 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%? | Yes | 10 | 27¢ | 9.8¢ | $0.97 | −$1.73 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%? | Yes | 30 | 1.5¢ | 2.9¢ | $0.85 | +$0.41 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 25 | 1¢ | 3.2¢ | $0.80 | +$0.55 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 45 | 4.1¢ | 1.7¢ | $0.74 | −$1.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 8¢ | 2.9¢ | $0.72 | −$1.27 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 55 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 9.2¢ | 5.8¢ | $0.57 | −$0.34 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 1.3¢ | 5.1¢ | $0.51 | +$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will Democrats win 3 or more House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 45 | 4¢ | 1¢ | $0.45 | −$1.37 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5 | 0¢ | 8.5¢ | $0.42 | +$0.42 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.3%? | Yes | 10 | 5.4¢ | 2.8¢ | $0.28 | −$0.27 | $0 | |
| Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 10 | 2.4¢ | 1.8¢ | $0.18 | −$0.06 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be less than $0.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.14 | −$0.84 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 25 | 1.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.14 | −$0.30 | $0 | |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 255 | 0.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.13 | −$2.24 | $0 | |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 255 | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.13 | −$1.19 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 25 | 7.9¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.11 | −$1.86 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 25 | 1.9¢ | 0.4¢ | $0.09 | −$0.39 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 25 | 10.2¢ | 0.3¢ | $0.07 | −$2.47 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.0%? | Yes | 10 | 4.4¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.06 | −$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.9%? | Yes | 10 | 0.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.05 | +$0.03 | $0 | |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 2.0%? | Yes | 10 | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | $0.05 | −$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.5% and 4.9%? | Yes | 30 | 0.9¢ | 0.2¢ | $0.04 | −$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.0%? | Yes | 30 | 0.9¢ | 0.2¢ | $0.04 | −$0.23 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 3.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.02 | −$0.76 | $0 | |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 20 | 5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.01 | −$1.01 | −$0.19 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5 | 0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5 | 0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5 | 0¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 720 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.09 | −$0.16 | |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 720 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.71 | −$0.12 | |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 715 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$78 | −$1.68 | |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | Yes | 604 | 38.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$233 | −$4.79 | |
| Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July? | Yes | 601 | 39.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$239 | −$4.51 | |
| Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by September 30? | Yes | 560 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.91 | −$0.29 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 545 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$245 | −$6.74 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 545 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | −$1.05 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 545 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.45 | −$0.27 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 545 | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.56 | |
| Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30? | Yes | 535 | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$175 | −$6.98 | |
| Will "Hacks" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? | Yes | 520 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.66 | −$0.08 | |
| Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? | Yes | 520 | 40.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$211 | −$6.25 | |
| Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? | Yes | 520 | 45.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$236 | −$6.42 | |
| Will "Hacks" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? | Yes | 520 | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.96 | |
| Will "Hacks" win 10 or more awards at the Emmys? | Yes | 515 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.04 | −$0.05 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | Yes | 481 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | −$0.63 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | Yes | 481 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.20 | −$0.16 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | Yes | 481 | 26¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$125 | −$4.00 | |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting? | Yes | 481 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.24 | −$0.16 | |
| Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July? | Yes | 479 | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$44 | −$2.03 | |
| Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | Yes | 403 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.11 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 400 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.90 | −$0.14 | |
| Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 400 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.47 | −$0.27 | |
| Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 400 | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.19 | −$0.16 | |
| Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 396 | 72.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$286 | −$3.94 | |
| Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | Yes | 391 | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.60 | |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | Yes | 391 | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$85 | $0 | |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | Yes | 391 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | −$2.81 | |