PnL all-time−$7,004vol $213k
PnL 30d−$417gains $1,909 · losses $2,496
PnL 7d−$77win rate 7d 36.6%
Win rate52.4%adj 52.3% · 30d 52.5%
Open value$552cash n/a
Positions10 / 570open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 13h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$6,252below peak −$8,003Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
32/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 52.4% · shrunk toward 50%31
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$226Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14? · Yesclosed+$198Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? · Yesclosed+$194Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 8? · Yesclosed+$185Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on August 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$161
Worst markets
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? · Noclosed−$4,380Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,497Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,068Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? · Noclosed−$717Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026? · Yesclosed−$612
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 12? | Yes | 398 | 61.8¢ | 99.7¢ | $396 | +$151 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 12? | No | 105 | 77.3¢ | 99.7¢ | $105 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 13? | Yes | 60 | 61¢ | 69¢ | $41 | +$4.81 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 10 | 50¢ | 45¢ | $4.50 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 35 | 33.9¢ | 12.5¢ | $4.39 | −$7.49 | $0 | |
| Will Hong Kong have between 40-50mm of precipitation in October? | Yes | 100 | 5¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.60 | −$4.40 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 12? | Yes | 308 | 11.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.15 | −$35 | −$5.51 | |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 10? | Yes | 190 | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$4.83 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 9? | Yes | 30 | 31.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.40 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 10? | Yes | 13 | 35¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.57 | $0 |
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