sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,577

pagliacci4

0x9b5…1167
WhaleWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+SportPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$11.2kvol $2.31M
PnL 30d+$2,932gains $40.3k · losses $16.9k
PnL 7d−$795win rate 7d 94.8%
Win rate94.6%adj 92.9% · 30d 94.6%
Open value$49.0kcash n/a
Positions157 / 1,764open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 5h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$5,322below peak −$6,276Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

45/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 94.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No12.6k99.2¢98.4¢$12.4k−$96$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No6,68796¢97.4¢$6,510+$90$0
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?No4,04596.9¢99.2¢$4,011+$90$0
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No3,75792.8¢92.2¢$3,462−$25$0
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?No2,81697.2¢98.8¢$2,781+$43$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No2,71895.9¢95.9¢$2,606−$2.03$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No2,02091.6¢94.5¢$1,909+$59−$1.56
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes1,67797.1¢98.7¢$1,655+$27$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes1,49994.2¢94¢$1,409−$2.56$0
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?Yes1,69484.1¢76.4¢$1,293−$131$0
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Yes1,36893¢92.4¢$1,263−$8.71$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No99395¢95¢$943$0$0
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?No96596.7¢92.5¢$892−$41$0
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?No85991.6¢95.3¢$818+$32+$23
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No68993.9¢94.5¢$651+$3.94$0
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?No68090.2¢90.5¢$615+$2.07$0
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?No1,03783.9¢49¢$508−$362$0
Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 15, 2026?No54285.8¢92.5¢$502+$36$0
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?No51491¢92.5¢$476+$7.71$0
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes45191.6¢97.8¢$441+$28$0
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?No48990.6¢89.5¢$438−$5.22$0
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No42095.5¢98.5¢$414+$12$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a polar bear?No42889.2¢96.4¢$412+$30$0
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?No34192¢89.5¢$305−$8.52$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a slime?No30189.5¢92.5¢$278+$9.04$0
Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?No28092.6¢95¢$266+$6.86$0
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before the midterms?Yes25884.6¢97.7¢$252+$34$0
Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?No40254.5¢60¢$241+$22$0
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?Yes19898.4¢99.1¢$196+$1.27$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a wither?No18195.6¢97.3¢$176+$3.07$0
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?Yes21978¢78.5¢$172+$1.10$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 15?Yes13894¢95¢$131+$1.38$0
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?Yes12388¢89.5¢$110+$1.85$0
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?No9585.7¢92.5¢$88+$6.44$0
Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before the midterms?Yes7488.8¢99.5¢$74+$7.89$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to an elder guardian?No8090.2¢89¢$71−$1.00$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No8081¢84¢$67+$2.40$0
Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?Yes6987.3¢95.5¢$66+$5.66$0
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No7381¢87.5¢$64+$4.72$0
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?No4585.5¢79.1¢$36−$2.89$0
Joe Mcgrail vs. Matthew BorelandJoe Mcgrail3099¢76.5¢$23−$6.75$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No1293¢94¢$11+$0.12$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No1095.8¢96.8¢$9.68+$0.10$0
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?No1277¢77.5¢$9.10+$0.06$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No1078¢80.5¢$8.05+$0.25$0
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?No1196.8¢64.6¢$7.18−$3.57$0
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No597.7¢97.7¢$4.88$0$0
Hanshin Tigers vs. Hiroshima CarpHiroshima Carp1798¢2¢$0.32−$16$0
Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-04?No4,57898.7¢0¢$0−$4,521−$2.84
UFC Fight Night: Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)Namsrai Batbayar3,5924¢0¢$0−$144−$6.90
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates2,68069.4¢0¢$0−$1,859−$28
Montana State vs. IdahoMontana State2,51397.1¢0¢$0−$2,440−$2.13
UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)Tai Tuivasa2,41768.3¢0¢$0−$1,650−$23
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under2,19292.4¢0¢$0−$2,026−$7.65
ILT20 Continent Cup: Rwanda vs UgandaRwanda1,9674.5¢0¢$0−$88−$4.20
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers1,93778.4¢0¢$0−$1,518−$9.91
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha EaglesHanwha Eagles1,92788¢0¢$0−$1,696−$10
Thailand vs. Singapore: Both Teams to ScoreNo1,80766¢0¢$0−$1,192−$15
European T20 Premier League: Dublin Guardians vs Amsterdam FlamesDublin Guardians1,77288¢0¢$0−$1,559−$3.29
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under1,70087¢0¢$0−$1,479$0
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under1,60079¢0¢$0−$1,263−$0.59
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds1,51078¢0¢$0−$1,178−$13
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under1,43970¢0¢$0−$1,007−$15
The Hundred: Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers LeedsSunrisers Leeds1,40083¢0¢$0−$1,162−$9.88
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under1,37958¢0¢$0−$800−$10
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Oumar Sy1,30082.9¢0¢$0−$1,078−$5.32
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under1,27586¢0¢$0−$1,097−$6.35
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Sub Regional Qualifier C: Bulgaria vs LuxembourgLuxembourg1,26766.4¢0¢$0−$842−$14
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No1,21094.4¢0¢$0−$1,142−$2.53
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Namibia vs NepalNepal1,18256.4¢0¢$0−$667−$15
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under1,13974.9¢0¢$0−$853−$11
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under1,08763¢0¢$0−$685−$13
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under1,07781¢0¢$0−$872−$8.29
Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?No1,06280.7¢0¢$0−$857−$6.63
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes1,05292.2¢0¢$0−$970−$3.01
Saints vs. RavensRavens1,00079¢0¢$0−$790$0
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under1,00064¢0¢$0−$640−$12
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Yes1,00098.8¢0¢$0−$988$0
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under1,00070¢0¢$0−$700−$11
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-08-23?Yes1,00076¢0¢$0−$760−$9.12
Fight to Go the Distance?Yes1,00078¢0¢$0−$780−$8.58
Metro Bank One Day Cup: Lancashire vs NottinghamshireNottinghamshire1,00067¢0¢$0−$670−$203
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ETDown99920¢0¢$0−$200−$12
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Team to AdvanceSK Rapid Wien94474.6¢0¢$0−$704−$5.02
Metro Bank One Day Cup: Glamorgan vs EssexGlamorgan91785¢0¢$0−$780−$0.09
Athletics vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox90490¢0¢$0−$814−$4.07
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card)Dooho Choi90071¢0¢$0−$639−$9.27
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. NC DinosNC Dinos88380¢0¢$0−$706−$7.06
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)Umar Nurmagomedov87683¢0¢$0−$727$0
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight RidersSunrisers Hyderabad8226.5¢0¢$0−$54−$265
India Tour of Japan T20s: Japan vs IndiaJapan82073.9¢0¢$0−$606−$7.90
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifiermagic80097¢0¢$0−$776$0
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under77984¢0¢$0−$654−$0.14
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-08-01?No72592¢0¢$0−$667−$2.67
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsT172392¢0¢$0−$665−$2.66
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs OmanOman69744.4¢0¢$0−$309−$5.16
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under62165.7¢0¢$0−$408−$6.99
UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims)Charles Jourdain60064¢0¢$0−$384−$6.91
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under60062.8¢0¢$0−$377−$4.20
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under58561¢0¢$0−$357−$6.96

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?96.9¢30$2995%45
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97.2¢1,083$1,05295%45
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?96.9¢30$2995%45
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97.1¢340$33095%45
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97¢1,313$1,27395%45
BUY NoWill there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?50¢7$3.5095%45
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?97¢510$49595%45
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?96.9¢1,570$1,52295%45
BUY YesWill Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?96.8¢254$24695%45
BUY NoWill Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?96.7¢592$57295%45
BUY Juan Manuel CerundoloShanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia91¢3,000$2,73095%45
BUY NoKimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?92¢341$31495%45
BUY Florida InternationalNew Mexico State vs. Florida International98¢331$32495%45
BUY Florida InternationalNew Mexico State vs. Florida International97.9¢1,670$1,63595%45
BUY Florida InternationalNew Mexico State vs. Florida International97.9¢182$17895%45
BUY Atlanta DreamNew York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream83¢2,500$2,07595%45
BUY UnderLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.589¢2,000$1,78095%45
BUY NoRussia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?91¢514$46895%45
BUY YesWill Israel election happen as scheduled?92.9¢136$12695%45
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?95¢993$94395%45