sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,406

Naropoly

0x9f8…6cd9
SharpWhalePnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$24.9kvol $2.95M
PnL 30d−$380gains $486 · losses $880
PnL 7d+$290win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate82.1%adj 80.9% · 30d 94.7%
Open value$40.3kcash n/a
Positions44 / 961open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.8%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$26.0kbelow peak −$8,197Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

79/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 82.1% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable99
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d92
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity75

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 44

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No30.6k97.6¢98.3¢$30.0k+$197+$901
Ebola pandemic in 2026?No5,00093.6¢98.1¢$4,902+$225+$86
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No2,22087.1¢94.5¢$2,098+$165$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No1,00096.9¢97.3¢$973+$3.50$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No1,00095¢95.5¢$955+$5.00$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No39093.2¢96.1¢$375+$11$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo20092¢91.5¢$183−$1.00$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes20083.3¢88.4¢$177+$10$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes20092¢80.5¢$161−$23$0
Plague pandemic in 2026?No10096.2¢97.4¢$97+$1.15$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No10092.3¢95.1¢$95+$2.80+$6.77
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No8584¢93.4¢$79+$7.91+$4.76
No one announced as next James Bond?No10083¢71.5¢$72−$12$0
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Yes40035¢12.5¢$50−$90$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes1,00012¢3.3¢$33−$87$0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No5043¢62.5¢$31+$9.75$0
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Yes10013¢13¢$13$0−$0.36
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?No2,84969.7¢0¢$0−$1,984−$17
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?No1,50084.3¢0¢$0−$1,265−$6.02
Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Yes1,2699.8¢0¢$0−$125−$1.54
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Under5006¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?Yes50022.6¢0¢$0−$113−$3.49
France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5Under4569.8¢0¢$0−$44$0
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?No4185.8¢0¢$0−$24−$0.69
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Under3509¢0¢$0−$31−$0.32
Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?Yes3001.5¢0¢$0−$4.50$0
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?No22785.3¢0¢$0−$194−$1.42
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?No22543.9¢0¢$0−$99−$14
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceBrazil22251.4¢0¢$0−$114−$0.54
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceGermany22069.4¢0¢$0−$153+$29
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to ScoreNo21039.1¢0¢$0−$82$0
Will Kai or Speed die to a Warden?Yes20087.5¢0¢$0−$175−$0.53
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?Yes10329.8¢0¢$0−$31−$0.52
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?Yes10011¢0¢$0−$11$0
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceAustralia10043¢0¢$0−$43−$0.74
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Yes8670¢0¢$0−$60−$0.54
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?No8087.6¢0¢$0−$70−$0.35
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes7683¢0¢$0−$63$0
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?Yes6531¢0¢$0−$20−$0.41
Will Hungary win on 2026-10-05?No5070¢0¢$0−$35$0
Will Hungary win on 2026-10-02?No5057¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes3876.7¢0¢$0−$30−$36
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania?Yes278¢0¢$0−$2.15$0
Will Hungary win on 2026-09-28?Yes109¢0¢$0−$0.90$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?95¢1,000$95082%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.1¢100$8482%79Sharp
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?96.2¢100$9682%79Sharp
BUY NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?96.9¢1,000$96982%79Sharp
BUY YesViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?13¢100$1382%79Sharp
BUY NoWill India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?98¢100$9882%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?98¢837$82082%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?97.9¢40$3982%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?96¢20$1982%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?95¢20$1982%79Sharp
BUY NoWill Germany win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?70¢20$1482%79Sharp
BUY YesWill Daniel Rezaei be 1st on the 2026 Money List at the end of the year?92.7¢30$2882%79Sharp
BUY YesWill United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?8¢23$1.8182%79Sharp
BUY NoWill AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?84¢130$10982%79Sharp
BUY NoWill Serbia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?99.3¢133$13282%79Sharp
BUY NoWill Turkiye win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?98.9¢40$4082%79Sharp
BUY NoWill Armenia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?98.2¢98$9682%79Sharp
BUY NoClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?92.3¢100$9282%79Sharp
SELL NoWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?99.6¢119$11982%79Sharp
BUY NoWill Hungary win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?98.6¢43$4282%79Sharp