sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,553

Paul973973

0xa10…abd3
WhaleWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+Sport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$4,029vol $3.40M
PnL 30d+$7,652gains $16.4k · losses $3,414
PnL 7d+$202win rate 7d 88.9%
Win rate93.8%adj 92.1% · 30d 94.0%
Open value$104kcash n/a
Positions89 / 1,112open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 7d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,660below peak −$17.0kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 93.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d77
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 89

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic25.6k89.4¢96.1¢$24.6k+$1,692$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No12.8k94¢98.2¢$12.5k+$536$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No11.4k96.5¢98.9¢$11.3k+$269$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo10.8k92.9¢91.5¢$9,854−$146$0
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No7,24396.6¢99.8¢$7,225+$225$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes8,16382.1¢81.5¢$6,653−$47$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes7,51289.2¢82.5¢$6,197−$503$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes5,49591¢90.5¢$4,973−$27$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No4,37879.9¢96.1¢$4,205+$705$0
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No3,15895¢96.3¢$3,039+$39$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,61095.8¢99.1¢$2,587+$87$0
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?No2,64975.5¢96.7¢$2,560+$560$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No2,29987¢94.5¢$2,172+$172$0
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?No1,98690.6¢98.6¢$1,957+$157$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2,18347.6¢53.1¢$1,158+$118$0
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No1,33574.9¢84.5¢$1,128+$128$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2,18228.4¢38.9¢$848+$228$0
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?No40898¢99.7¢$407+$6.94$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No15895¢97.6¢$154+$4.03$0
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No12381¢97.3¢$120+$20$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes6324¢19¢$12−$3.13$0
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Yes16.7k1.8¢0¢$0−$300−$8.84
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?Yes9,42895.5¢0¢$0−$9,000−$20
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Yes6,1264.9¢0¢$0−$300−$8.56
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Yes5,3722.6¢0¢$0−$140−$5.55
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Yes4,9148.1¢0¢$0−$400−$11
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Yandex4,70785¢0¢$0−$4,000−$30
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceNetherlands4,47289.5¢0¢$0−$4,000−$13
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 4?Down4,35998.9¢0¢$0−$4,310−$1.93
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Yes4,21195¢0¢$0−$4,000$0
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesSt. Louis Cardinals3,03998.7¢0¢$0−$3,000−$1.92
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2,1330.7¢0¢$0−$15−$0.60
US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco CerundoloTaylor Fritz2,11794.5¢0¢$0−$2,000−$5.49
Exact Score: FC Schalke 04 0 - 0 FC Bayern München?No2,02998.6¢0¢$0−$2,000−$1.43
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No1,98476.8¢0¢$0−$1,525−$233
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons1,74791.6¢0¢$0−$1,600−$6.71
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Yes1,4634.1¢0¢$0−$60−$1.73
Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 2 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg?No1,3031¢0¢$0−$13−$0.64
Winston-Salem Open, Qualification: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Quinn VandecasteelePierre-Hugues Herbert1,05195.2¢0¢$0−$1,000−$2.41
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-08-23?Yes1,03896.4¢0¢$0−$1,000−$1.80
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-08-30?Yes1,03054.7¢0¢$0−$564−$70
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?Yes1,02718.6¢0¢$0−$191−$4.66
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes1,01264.2¢0¢$0−$650−$6.98
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future PlayoffsLGD Gaming80483.9¢0¢$0−$675−$5.37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?No60682.6¢0¢$0−$500−$3.47
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?Yes58323¢0¢$0−$134−$5.16
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group StageGamerLegion45188.8¢0¢$0−$400−$2.19
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'ConnellChristopher O'Connell44560.6¢0¢$0−$270−$5.11
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 24?Up41297¢0¢$0−$400−$0.48
Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-09-30?Yes40698.4¢0¢$0−$400−$0.31
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Motherwell FC?Yes4001¢0¢$0−$4.00−$0.20
Exact Score: Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1 - 3 FC Twente?Yes3540.6¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.10
Will FC Zbrojovka Brno vs. FC Zlín end in a draw?Yes33988.5¢0¢$0−$300−$1.72
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes3367.1¢0¢$0−$24−$0.67
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes33013.3¢0¢$0−$44−$1.14
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes3285.8¢0¢$0−$19−$0.54
US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin MoutetCorentin Moutet29967¢0¢$0−$200−$3.30
Zhangjiagang: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Elias YmerElias Ymer2936.8¢0¢$0−$20−$0.93
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-02?Yes28674¢0¢$0−$212−$2.76
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Yes28635¢0¢$0−$100−$2.60
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?Yes27473¢0¢$0−$200−$1.62
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-30?Yes23087¢0¢$0−$200−$1.30
Guangzhou: Naoya Honda vs Nikoloz BasilashviliNikoloz Basilashvili21891.9¢0¢$0−$200−$0.80
Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?Yes21470¢0¢$0−$150$0
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No20498¢0¢$0−$200−$0.20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes18767¢0¢$0−$125−$194
Dota 2: KW vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group ASpirit Academy16286¢0¢$0−$139−$0.97
Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-30?Yes16162¢0¢$0−$100−$6.13
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-08-23?Yes15664¢0¢$0−$100−$1.80
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise14768¢0¢$0−$100−$1.60
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-08-16?Yes13375¢0¢$0−$100−$1.25
St. Tropez: Harold Mayot vs Jesper de JongJesper de Jong12779¢0¢$0−$100−$1.05
US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen KhachanovFelix Auger-Aliassime12282¢0¢$0−$100−$0.90
Rennes: Adrian Mannarino vs Matisse BobichonAdrian Mannarino12282¢0¢$0−$100−$0.90
Como: Jay Clarke vs Pedro MartinezPedro Martinez11984¢0¢$0−$100−$0.80
Will England win on 2026-06-23?Yes11984¢0¢$0−$100−$0.48
Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 0 - 2 Liverpool FC?No11091¢0¢$0−$100−$0.45
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Motherwell FC?Yes1096.4¢0¢$0−$7.00−$0.33
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Yes10516.2¢0¢$0−$17−$0.71
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Yes10413.4¢0¢$0−$14−$0.36
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Yes10417.3¢0¢$0−$18−$0.45
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Yes10155.3¢0¢$0−$56−$0.75
Zhangjiagang: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Tianhui ZhangTianhui Zhang1011¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Hamburg: Niels McDonald vs Eduardo RibeiroEduardo Ribeiro9731¢0¢$0−$30−$1.04
Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Max PurcellCruz Hewitt651.5¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.05
Will El Qanah Club win on 2026-09-07?Yes5788¢0¢$0−$50−$0.30
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Level UP - Game 4 WinnerSpirit Academy1880¢0¢$0−$14−$0.14
Viborg FF vs. FC København: Both Teams to ScoreYes1758¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.21
Zhangjiagang: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongPetr Bar Biryukov435¢0¢$0−$1.39+$0.91

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoExact Score: Seattle Sounders FC 3 - 3 Sporting Kansas City?99¢2,020$2,00094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Serbia?98¢102$10094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Malta 3 - 2 Gibraltar?99.2¢1,008$1,00094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Republic of Ireland 3 - 2 Austria?99.9¢20$2094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Malta 3 - 2 Gibraltar?99¢505$50094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Serbia?99.3¢1,007$1,00094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Serbia?99.3¢1,007$1,00094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Serbia?99¢2,020$2,00094%44
BUY AnthropicWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?96.3¢2,078$2,00094%44
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?97.9¢4,085$4,00094%44
BUY AnthropicWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?96.1¢5,203$5,00094%44
BUY YesWill HB Køge win on 2026-10-01?99.7¢502$50094%44
BUY YesWill HB Køge win on 2026-10-01?97.4¢103$10094%44
BUY NoExact Score: FK Austria Wien 2 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?99.2¢1,008$1,00094%44
BUY NoExact Score: FK Austria Wien 3 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano?99.2¢1,008$1,00094%44
BUY Clement ChidekhMouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Chidekh vs Ugo Blanchet86¢116$10094%44
BUY Felix BalshawMouilleron-Le-Captif: Felix Balshaw vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer88¢2,273$2,00094%44
BUY YesWill Lebanon win on 2026-10-01?99.9¢3,153$3,15094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Syria?92.9¢431$40094%44
BUY NoExact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Syria?96.9¢464$45094%44