sharpside
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Traders/Rank #13,217

mrdonaldo

0xa28…fbba
CulturePoliticsWeather
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$384vol $333k
PnL 30d+$292gains $303 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$84win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate13.2%adj 14.6% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$1,981cash n/a
Positions36 / 575open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 21d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$183below peak −$387Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

25/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 13.2% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d27
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Meta (META) beat quarterly earnings? · Noclosed+$392Will Trump visit China by March 31? · Yesclosed+$374Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Noclosed+$168Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? · Noclosed+$165Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Noopen+$150

Worst markets

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? · Yesclosed−$71Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? · Yesclosed−$69US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$69US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$62US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$52

Open positions · 36

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No1,45918.2¢28.4¢$415+$150$0
Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No19753¢73.5¢$145+$40$0
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?Yes10595¢97.6¢$103+$2.68$0
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?No25929¢39.5¢$102+$27$0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No10495.7¢97.3¢$102+$1.62$0
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?No10199.1¢99.9¢$101+$0.76$0
Will Aljaž Ivačič win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?No10199.3¢94.4¢$95−$4.93$0
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Yes13249¢57¢$75+$11$0
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No16636¢41.5¢$69+$9.13$0
Will Real Betis reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?No11951¢51.5¢$61+$0.59$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No6745¢85.5¢$57+$27$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?No8267¢68.5¢$56+$1.23$0
Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No6880.1¢80.2¢$55+$0.07$0
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?No22744¢22.5¢$51−$49$0
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes8192.9¢62.5¢$50−$25$0
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?Yes4931¢97.9¢$48+$33+$4.60
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No5766¢84¢$48+$10+$3.41
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?No4891¢99¢$47+$3.78−$0.12
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No6075¢76¢$46+$0.60$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No4486¢96.2¢$42+$4.43+$1.05
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No4290¢96.7¢$40+$2.79+$0.83
Will John Pulskamp win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?No4197¢96.8¢$40−$0.11+$1.17
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No4191.8¢92.7¢$38+$0.38+$1.20
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?No2388.6¢99.9¢$23+$2.55+$0.63
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No5633¢40¢$22+$3.90$0
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No5008.6¢2.9¢$15−$28$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No33115¢3.7¢$12−$38$0
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No3947.7¢2.7¢$10−$20$0
Will Derrick Lewis be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No1097.4¢100¢$10+$0.26+$0.23
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No296.3¢98.7¢$2.04+$0.05$0
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes2488.6¢2.6¢$0.62−$21+$0.49
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes482.1¢0.7¢$0.31−$0.69$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No7323.6¢0¢$0−$26−$1.01
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?Yes5000.4¢0¢$0−$2.14−$0.09
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3330.3¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will the Houston Astros win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?U 80.54075¢0¢$0−$30$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?53¢75$4013%25
BUY NoWill "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?75¢60$4513%25
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?67¢82$5513%25
BUY NoWill Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?36¢166$6013%25
BUY YesReserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?49¢132$6513%25
BUY NoWill Real Betis reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?51¢117$6013%25
BUY NoWill Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?53¢122$6513%25
BUY NoWill Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?80.1¢68$5413%25
BUY NoWill Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?8.6¢500$4313%25
BUY NoWill Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?33¢56$1813%25
BUY NoWill Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?7.1¢142$1013%25
SELL NoWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?90¢7$6.6613%25
BUY YesWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?0.4¢500$2.1413%25
BUY NoWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?91¢55$5013%25
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?99.1¢101$10013%25
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?95.7¢104$10013%25
BUY NoWill United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?31¢242$7513%25
BUY NoWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?44¢227$10013%25
BUY NoWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?18.2¢1,459$26513%25
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 26?37¢41$1513%25