sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,262

flovertaco

0xa2e…fd91
WhalePnL 10k+1y+PoliticsOtherWeatherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$23.7kvol $2.30M
PnL 30d−$2,357gains $3,250 · losses $3,185
PnL 7d−$1,116win rate 7d 70.0%
Win rate58.1%adj 57.5% · 30d 76.5%
Open value$97.4kcash n/a
Positions43 / 303open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.3%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 15h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$28.2kbelow peak −$2,716Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 58.1% · shrunk toward 50%44
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 43

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No33.8k91.7¢87.3¢$29.5k−$1,520−$171
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k29.8¢41.3¢$17.9k+$4,965−$5.28
Ebola pandemic in 2026?No16.1k94.7¢98.2¢$15.8k+$568+$801
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k23.7¢21.5¢$9,339−$935$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?No5,46080.8¢89.4¢$4,878+$469−$847
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes5,50382.5¢76.5¢$4,210−$332−$474
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?No2,90315.8¢98.4¢$2,855+$2,396+$330
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,76693.8¢95.6¢$1,687+$31$0
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,66092.4¢85.9¢$1,426−$108$0
Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,59391.5¢87.9¢$1,400−$57$0
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,16095.8¢95.6¢$1,109−$2.17$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No3,36732.1¢31¢$1,044−$36+$1,124
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k2.6¢2¢$847−$299$0
Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No73995.7¢95.5¢$705−$1.62+$3.16
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k1.9¢1.6¢$673−$152$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No2,12761.6¢31¢$658−$652−$385
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k2.4¢1.2¢$521−$532$0
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No48695.9¢93.8¢$456−$10+$6.03
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No39695.2¢97.9¢$387+$11+$4.72
Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No37993.5¢94.9¢$360+$5.14+$4.34
Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No35596.4¢97.4¢$346+$3.65+$7.03
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No31196.2¢94.1¢$292−$6.64+$6.89
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes43.4k4.8¢0.7¢$282−$1,799−$705
Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No26093.1¢93.2¢$242+$0.18$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes6,4192.7¢2.9¢$183+$13+$509
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No14592.6¢95.3¢$138+$3.90+$19
Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?Yes50522.9¢21.5¢$109−$7.08$0
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No10471.6¢91.5¢$96+$21$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes1811.8¢1.2¢$2.08−$1.18−$527
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No197.1¢98.2¢$0.99+$0.01+$2,805
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No3,11983.7¢0¢$0−$2,611−$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ETDown1,83017.7¢0¢$0−$323$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETDown1,49423.7¢0¢$0−$354$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETUp1,00030¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?No5004.1¢0¢$0−$20−$125
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Yes13025.8¢0¢$0−$33+$317
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?No1072¢0¢$0−$2.15+$3.96
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes799.5¢0¢$0−$7.51−$127
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes794.4¢0¢$0−$3.47−$51
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes7816.8¢0¢$0−$13−$137
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes7824.9¢0¢$0−$19+$13
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5Under6123¢0¢$0−$14−$0.32
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No142¢0¢$0−$0.42+$14

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?97¢788$76558%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?84.2¢178$15058%67
BUY YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?82¢178$14658%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?30¢178$5358%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?31¢162$5058%67
BUY YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?83¢162$13458%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?82.1¢162$13358%67
BUY YesWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?68.6¢595$40858%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?30¢595$17958%67
SELL NoWill Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?97.7¢99$9758%67
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?87¢2,107$1,83358%67
BUY NoWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?87.3¢1,074$93858%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?81.6¢71$5858%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?81.5¢130$10658%67
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?34¢251$8558%67
BUY YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?81¢251$20358%67
SELL NoWill Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?96.2¢68$6658%67
SELL NoWill Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?96.5¢134$12958%67
SELL NoWill François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?95.9¢268$25858%67
SELL NoWill Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?95.8¢157$15058%67