sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE

0xa68…c4b4
OtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,040vol $112k
PnL 30d+$1,906gains $3,020 · losses $1,352
PnL 7d+$128win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate38.5%adj 39.7% · 30d 47.8%
Open value$3,872cash n/a
Positions42 / 217open / all-time
Max drawdown−31.3%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,395below peak −$82Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

52/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47
Adjusted win rateraw 38.5% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity69

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 42

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No1,20389.6¢89.5¢$1,076−$1.70+$1,064
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?No60055¢60¢$360+$30$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?No59916.6¢60¢$360+$260$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?No35891.1¢89.5¢$320−$5.72$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Yes40973¢71.5¢$292−$6.03−$11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes80032.2¢26.5¢$212−$46$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No60033.3¢28.7¢$173−$27−$1.18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes20060.7¢78.5¢$157+$36$0
Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?Yes50130.8¢27.5¢$138−$17$0
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes23458.9¢49¢$115−$23+$0.33
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Yes20460.3¢53.5¢$109−$14$0
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes45821.7¢23.5¢$108+$8.46+$6.38
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?No27852¢35.5¢$99−$46+$19
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes10070¢70¢$70$0$0
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Yes28925.6¢23.7¢$68−$5.49$0
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?Yes7569.2¢78¢$58+$6.52+$1.37
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes38931.3¢10¢$39−$83+$1.23
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes5635¢56.5¢$31+$12$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes4841¢35.5¢$17−$2.62−$4.87
Will Dexter McCoy win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?No8124¢17.5¢$14−$5.26$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes14913¢9.5¢$14−$5.21$0
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes4840.4¢21.5¢$10−$9.14−$4.91
Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?Yes2456.7¢3.9¢$9.55−$6.74$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026?Yes717¢9.3¢$6.57+$1.60$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?Yes17611¢3¢$5.27−$14$0
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Yes2065¢24.5¢$4.95−$8.18+$1.33
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?Yes614.4¢5¢$3.01+$0.33$0
Will Waymo launch in London, UK by December 31 2026?Yes3851¢3.6¢$1.39−$18$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes786.4¢0.9¢$0.70−$4.30$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes4625¢1.1¢$0.48−$11$0
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes310.2¢8¢$0.24−$0.06−$0.43
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?No5,9100.7¢0¢$0−$44−$66
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Yes69040.9¢0¢$0−$282−$3.66
Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28?Yes58210¢0¢$0−$58−$2.10
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 20, 2026?Yes4651¢0¢$0−$4.63−$0.18
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes4501.7¢0¢$0−$7.79−$0.09
Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes4390.2¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.04
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes2792.1¢0¢$0−$5.86−$487
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?Yes6430.2¢0¢$0−$19−$0.67
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Yes549.2¢0¢$0−$5.00−$5.65
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes408.1¢0¢$0−$3.20−$0.12
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?No2722.9¢0¢$0−$6.26+$0.51

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesNext OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?63¢13$8.1939%52
BUY YesNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?70¢100$7039%52
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?91¢323$29439%52
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?77.6¢70$5439%52
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026?6.9¢61$4.2239%52
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?4.4¢61$2.6839%52
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?52.5¢600$31539%52
BUY NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?50¢150$7539%52
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?68¢71$4839%52
BUY YesWill Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?25.6¢289$7439%52
SELL YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?71¢239$17039%52
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?90¢376$33839%52
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?89.5¢822$73539%52
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?92¢35$3239%52
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?3.3¢300$9.9439%52
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?7.3¢130$9.5039%52
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?5.9¢115$6.7939%52
BUY YesGemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?68.4¢300$20539%52
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?71¢13$8.9239%52
BUY NoWill there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 5?69¢38$2739%52