Traders/Rank #1,297

kinderSman

0xa6d…fd2f@kinderSman

SharpPnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsCryptoSportOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$152kvol $8.21M

PnL 30d+$10.1kgains $12.1k · losses $30.7k

PnL 7d−$822win rate 7d 81.8%

Win rate90.4%adj 88.8% · 30d 93.5%

Open value$33.8kcash n/a

Positions24 / 740open / all-time

Max drawdown−39.0%of equity peak

Account age11molast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$153kbelow peak −$2,583Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

77/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale74

Adjusted win rateraw 90.4% · shrunk toward 50%100

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d88

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity61

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$40.0k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$27.1k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yesclosed+$18.3k MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$18.1k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yesclosed+$14.7k

Worst markets

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$26.1k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noclosed−$20.2k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Noclosed−$14.3k New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · Noclosed−$9,559 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$8,360

Open positions · 24

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	10,000	99.3¢	99.8¢	$9,975	+$45	$0	6mo
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	6,000	83.3¢	84.5¢	$5,070	+$70	+$310	19d 21h
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	3,028	98.1¢	98.5¢	$2,981	+$11	$0	22d 21h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	3,000	83.6¢	85.7¢	$2,570	+$61	+$0.46	ended
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	3,000	82.7¢	84.5¢	$2,535	+$55	$0	19d 21h
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	2,000	99.1¢	99.1¢	$1,981	−$1.00	$0	22d 21h
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	2,000	91¢	95.5¢	$1,910	+$90	$0	3mo
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	1,000	96¢	99.6¢	$996	+$36	$0	19d 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	1,000	99¢	99.2¢	$992	+$1.50	$0	22d 21h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	1,000	98.6¢	99.2¢	$991	+$5.50	$0	25d 21h
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	1,000	96¢	95.6¢	$956	−$4.50	$0	3mo
New pandemic in 2026?	No	1,000	93¢	94.5¢	$945	+$15	$0	3mo
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	6,000	61.6¢	15.5¢	$930	−$2,769	−$181	19d 21h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	700	98.4¢	98.7¢	$691	+$1.95	$0	22d 21h
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?	No	110	97.6¢	99.7¢	$110	+$2.27	$0	22d 21h
GTA VI released by October 31?	No	100	97.2¢	99.6¢	$100	+$2.35	$0	22d 21h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	78	95.2¢	100¢	$78	+$3.65	$0	6d 21h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	21	70¢	87.5¢	$19	+$3.73	$0	14d 21h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	2	69¢	83.5¢	$1.42	+$0.25	$0	14d 21h
France vs. England: O/U 0.5	Under	13.1k	3.9¢	0¢	$0	−$511	−$12	ended
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22?	Yes	3,000	83.2¢	0¢	$0	−$2,495	−$29	ended
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Under	300	95.7¢	0¢	$0	−$287	−$0.12	ended
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	Yes	120	29.3¢	0¢	$0	−$35	$0	ended
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	Yes	100	7¢	0¢	$0	−$7.00	$0	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	84.6¢	1,000	$846	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	84.4¢	1,800	$1,518	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	82.4¢	1,022	$842	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	82¢	200	$164	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY No	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	99.1¢	2,000	$1,982	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY No	Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026?	98.1¢	59	$58	90%	77	Sharp
3d ago	BUY Yes	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	81.6¢	1,000	$816	90%	77	Sharp
4d ago	BUY No	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	99.9¢	3,000	$2,997	90%	77	Sharp
5d ago	BUY No	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	99.6¢	500	$498	90%	77	Sharp
5d ago	BUY No	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	96¢	1,000	$960	90%	77	Sharp
6d ago	SELL Yes	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	72¢	466	$335	90%	77	Sharp
6d ago	BUY No	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	84¢	3,226	$2,710	90%	77	Sharp
6d ago	BUY No	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	98.4¢	500	$492	90%	77	Sharp
6d ago	BUY No	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	96.9¢	109	$106	90%	77	Sharp
6d ago	BUY No	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	99.2¢	1,000	$992	90%	77	Sharp
7d ago	BUY No	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	99.8¢	3,000	$2,994	90%	77	Sharp
7d ago	BUY No	Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	98.1¢	3,028	$2,970	90%	77	Sharp
9d ago	BUY No	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	99.9¢	1,000	$999	90%	77	Sharp
9d ago	BUY No	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	96.1¢	48	$46	90%	77	Sharp
9d ago	BUY No	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	99.9¢	1,000	$999	90%	77	Sharp