sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,344

KiruaTrading

0xa7d…f954
PnL 10k+WR 60+OtherWeatherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$19.8kvol $1.54M
PnL 30d+$15.2kgains $13.9k · losses $5,583
PnL 7d+$4,046win rate 7d 75.6%
Win rate66.3%adj 65.6% · 30d 69.1%
Open value$16.0kcash n/a
Positions50 / 764open / all-time
Max drawdown−34.5%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$29.3kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale61
Adjusted win rateraw 66.3% · shrunk toward 50%64
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Noopen+$6,036Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yesclosed+$2,792Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? · Yesclosed+$2,473Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yesclosed+$1,267Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? · Noclosed+$950

Worst markets

Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? · Yesclosed−$1,755Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yesclosed−$1,737Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? · Yesclosed−$1,412Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,053Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yesclosed−$646

Open positions · 50

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No9,37813¢74.5¢$6,987+$5,768+$268
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?No1,85390¢99.6¢$1,845+$177$0
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No1,51072.3¢91.5¢$1,381+$290−$43
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2,32424.3¢42.5¢$988+$422$0
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No91653.9¢77.7¢$712+$218$0
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes48860.3¢69.5¢$339+$45−$2.82
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?Yes40266.6¢75.5¢$303+$36+$3.29
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?No32086.6¢87¢$278+$1.20$0
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes28473¢79.5¢$226+$18$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes45633.7¢49.5¢$226+$72$0
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?No22089.6¢99.6¢$220+$22$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No18491.6¢99.6¢$183+$15−$15
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No17386.7¢93.5¢$162+$12$0
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No17782.8¢83.5¢$148+$1.23+$1.00
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No15067.7¢96.8¢$145+$44$0
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Yes15685.5¢89¢$139+$5.47+$9.00
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes17827¢76.5¢$136+$88$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?No12594¢99.4¢$124+$6.75$0
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?No12392.6¢99.5¢$123+$8.48$0
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes17041.5¢69.8¢$119+$48$0
Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027?Yes16457.1¢66.5¢$109+$15$0
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?No11589¢94.1¢$108+$5.80+$12
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?No12087.8¢88.5¢$106+$0.80$0
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No13169.5¢79¢$103+$12+$96
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes1,00026¢10¢$100−$160$0
Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No12082.5¢81¢$97−$1.80$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Yes6097.4¢14.5¢$88+$43$0
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?No10051.6¢81.5¢$82+$30$0
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No8089¢84¢$67−$4.00$0
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?No15534.9¢39¢$60+$6.39+$12
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No23515¢23¢$54+$19$0
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes8053.7¢62.5¢$50+$7.00$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes13138.6¢36.7¢$48−$2.48$0
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?No4092.9¢97.6¢$39+$1.86$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Yes61176.1¢6.3¢$38−$426$0
Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No3096.7¢99.4¢$30+$0.80+$1.15
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?No3568.8¢77¢$27+$2.86+$6.15
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?No2570¢40.5¢$10−$7.38$0
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?No1088¢94.2¢$9.41+$0.61+$3.12
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes2737¢31.5¢$8.51−$1.49$0
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Yes3415.8¢15.5¢$5.20−$0.10$0
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?Yes2055¢14.5¢$2.90−$8.10$0
Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes2012¢12.5¢$2.50+$0.10$0
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Yes1023¢23¢$2.29$0+$1.73
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes575.7¢3.9¢$2.21−$1.05$0
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes2110¢9.5¢$2.00−$0.10$0
Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?Yes712¢25.5¢$1.78+$0.94+$13
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?Yes135¢2.7¢$0.35−$0.31$0
Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Yes602¢0.5¢$0.30−$0.90$0
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.6 – 8.7?Yes50¢4.7¢$0.23+$0.23$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?81.1¢421$34166%69
BUY YesWill Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?5.7¢57$3.2666%69
BUY YesWill Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?10¢21$2.1066%69
BUY NoWill Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?86.6¢320$27766%69
BUY NoWill Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?90¢44$3966%69
BUY NoWill Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?89.6¢177$15866%69
BUY NoWill Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?90¢1,485$1,33766%69
BUY NoWill Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?90¢368$33166%69
BUY NoWill Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?92¢99$9166%69
BUY NoWill there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?72¢79$5766%69
SELL YesWill there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?28¢21$5.9666%69
SELL NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?43.8¢107$4766%69
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?43.5¢31$1366%69
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?37.1¢100$3766%69
SELL NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?58.9¢303$17866%69
BUY NoWill there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?83¢29$2466%69
SELL NoWill there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?56¢120$6766%69
BUY YesWill there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?37¢21$7.6066%69
SELL NoWill there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?63¢20$1366%69
BUY NoWill there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?86¢20$1766%69