sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,998

novv25

0xa9f…f135
WhalePoliticsCryptoOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$301kvol $6.81M
PnL 30d−$144kgains $550 · losses $82.8k
PnL 7d−$9,772win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate55.8%adj 54.8% · 30d 25.0%
Open value$17.1kcash n/a
Positions25 / 122open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 23h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$320kbelow peak −$388kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 55.8% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable70
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? · Yesclosed+$29.2kUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Noclosed+$25.3kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$14.8kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Noclosed+$12.1kNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? · Noclosed+$10.6k

Worst markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Noopen−$141kWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yesclosed−$70.5kWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yesclosed−$42.8kKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yesopen−$37.4kFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Noopen−$28.6k

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Yes260k13.4¢5¢$13.0k−$21.8k−$713
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?Yes15.0k24.5¢21¢$3,157−$529$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes1,12058¢77.5¢$868+$218+$162
Iran Nuke before 2027?Yes1,00012¢3.6¢$36−$85$0
Modi out by December 31, 2026?Yes1198.4¢8.6¢$10+$0.14$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No244¢80.5¢$1.83+$0.83−$158
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Yes5725¢2.7¢$1.50−$13$0
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes338¢12.5¢$0.33−$0.67$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes266¢20.5¢$0.31−$0.69$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes257¢8.5¢$0.15−$0.85$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No444k31.2¢0¢$0−$138k−$2,310
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes176k9.2¢0¢$0−$16.2k−$21.2k
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?No77.0k38¢0¢$0−$29.3k+$678
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes52.6k12.6¢0¢$0−$6,611−$147
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes20.2k30.4¢0¢$0−$6,154+$45
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes6,41110.3¢0¢$0−$663$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?Yes4,00038¢0¢$0−$1,520$0
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?Yes3,3914.2¢0¢$0−$143−$5.50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes1,11318¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?Yes70418¢0¢$0−$127−$7.27
Will England win the World Cup?Yes50020¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes47021.1¢0¢$0−$99$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No24644.3¢0¢$0−$109$0
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No24055¢0¢$0−$132$0
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Yes421.3¢0¢$0−$0.83−$5,074

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?24¢200$4856%27
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?58¢1,721$99856%27
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?87¢1,148$99956%27
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?87¢2,300$2,00056%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?21¢35$7.3756%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?22¢73$1656%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?22¢7,602$1,67256%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?22¢27$5.8856%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?22¢2,779$61156%27
BUY NoFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?20¢6$1.1556%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢580$11656%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢232$4656%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢472$9456%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢47.6k$9,52456%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢1,903$38156%27
SELL YesWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?4¢4,105$16556%27
SELL YesNew pandemic in 2026?4.7¢4,691$21956%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?20¢7,862$1,57256%27
SELL YesBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?7.7¢21.3k$1,64256%27
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?18.6¢5,116$95256%27