sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,399

The-Defect

0xac6…2ed3
SharpWR 70+WR 60+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$6,989vol $1.01M
PnL 30d+$1,826gains $1,765 · losses $695
PnL 7d+$173win rate 7d 82.6%
Win rate77.0%adj 75.9% · 30d 83.2%
Open value$8,302cash n/a
Positions94 / 1,510open / all-time
Max drawdown−24.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 18h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$7,967below peak $0Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

76/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale55
Adjusted win rateraw 77.0% · shrunk toward 50%90
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 94

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes1,59955.1¢77¢$1,231+$351+$288
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes1,19353.8¢81¢$966+$325+$52
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No1,01775¢90.5¢$921+$158+$39
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes1,05473.7¢65.5¢$690−$86$0
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes64063.9¢66.5¢$426+$17$0
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes40477.6¢74.5¢$301−$13$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes41763¢63.5¢$264+$2.08$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No25389.9¢98.4¢$249+$21+$0.43
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No25090.7¢93.5¢$234+$7.08+$13
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Yes72719.4¢28¢$204+$63+$5.48
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes22583.5¢81¢$182−$5.64$0
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No24973.5¢72.5¢$181−$2.48+$20
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?Yes21972.7¢75¢$164+$5.06+$6.19
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes18686.3¢85.3¢$159−$1.95$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes16791¢90.5¢$151−$0.83$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No17184¢82.5¢$141−$2.56−$2.38
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes13988.5¢86.4¢$120−$2.91$0
Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by October 31?No10485.3¢98.1¢$102+$13$0
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $625B by October 31?No10889.7¢93¢$100+$3.56+$0.76
Tom Holland as Spider-Man?No18551.9¢51.5¢$95−$0.82$0
Will Doctor Doom die in Avengers: Doomsday?No10190.1¢93¢$94+$2.92$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No8883¢87.5¢$77+$3.94$0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?No7890.1¢95.3¢$74+$3.99$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes15643.9¢44.5¢$69+$0.87+$0.81
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No7381¢92¢$67+$8.07+$28
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?Yes8379¢78.5¢$65−$0.42$0
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes1550¢37.5¢$58+$58$0
Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?No5593¢93.5¢$51+$0.28$0
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No5471¢91¢$49+$11+$11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?No8868¢50¢$44−$16$0
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?No5686.5¢78.5¢$44−$4.46$0
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Yes8757.9¢49¢$42−$7.70+$1.11
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?No4590¢93.8¢$42+$1.69$0
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?No4583¢81.5¢$37−$0.67−$0.56
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No4470¢77.5¢$34+$3.30+$8.57
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No3870.2¢78¢$30+$3.00+$59
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?No3187¢95.9¢$30+$2.74$0
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No3086.1¢95¢$28+$2.66+$16
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?No2889¢91.5¢$25+$0.69$0
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No2890¢91.5¢$25+$0.41$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes3181¢80.5¢$25−$0.15$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?No3081¢82.5¢$25+$0.45$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes5742¢41.5¢$24−$0.28$0
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?Yes2588¢89¢$22+$0.25$0
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?No2778¢77¢$21−$0.27−$1.78
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No2878¢73¢$20−$1.39$0
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?No2190.2¢97.9¢$20+$1.58+$0.19
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Yes2573¢76.5¢$19+$0.86$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?No2078¢84¢$17+$1.20$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No2172¢73.5¢$15+$0.31$0
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No2580¢58.5¢$15−$5.44$0
Yoon out of custody before 2027?No1490.8¢95.1¢$14+$0.62+$25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?No1686¢87¢$14+$0.16+$1.01
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes2509¢5.1¢$13−$9.75$0
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?No1376¢98.6¢$13+$2.88$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No1285¢90.5¢$11+$0.65$0
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $600B by October 31?No1188¢92.5¢$10+$0.49$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No886.6¢96.1¢$7.90+$0.78+$1.00
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?Yes5124.7¢15¢$7.70−$4.99$0
Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by December 31?No879¢95.5¢$7.46+$1.29+$3.26
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?Yes885¢94.4¢$7.31+$0.72$0
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?No787.9¢97.5¢$7.04+$0.69$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No778.7¢94.1¢$6.20+$1.01+$6.24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes771.4¢81.5¢$5.86+$0.73+$34
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?No697¢98.7¢$5.84+$0.10$0
Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?No1755¢34¢$5.67−$3.50$0
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?No692.4¢93.4¢$5.13+$0.05$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?No677.2¢90¢$5.01+$0.71−$0.15
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?No590¢99.4¢$4.97+$0.47+$0.43
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No576¢97.2¢$4.86+$1.06$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?No558¢95.9¢$4.79+$1.90$0
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?No585¢95.9¢$4.79+$0.54$0
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?No582.9¢93.2¢$4.66+$0.52+$0.35
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No562.2¢88¢$4.65+$1.36+$40
US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?No592¢90¢$4.50−$0.10$0
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?No585¢87.5¢$4.17+$0.12+$2.84
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?No973¢45.5¢$3.92−$2.37+$0.02
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?No487¢94.7¢$3.89+$0.32+$1.51
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No489.4¢96¢$3.68+$0.25+$1.55
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes570¢71.5¢$3.58+$0.07$0
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No389¢93¢$3.19+$0.14$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?No465¢77¢$2.95+$0.46+$8.12
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes481.5¢45.5¢$1.71−$1.35+$4.18
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes654.5¢23.5¢$1.40−$1.85−$32
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes544¢18¢$0.90−$1.30−$0.47
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Yes2856.5¢2.9¢$0.79−$15−$14
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes711¢10.5¢$0.77−$0.04+$19
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Yes926¢8¢$0.68−$1.53$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes1717¢3.9¢$0.67−$2.29−$27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes425.6¢13.5¢$0.57−$0.51−$345
Will LeBron James be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes412¢0.6¢$0.24−$0.57$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes321¢3.1¢$0.11−$0.62+$5.90
Will Rodri be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Yes143¢0.7¢$0.10−$0.32$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1029.8¢0¢$0−$2.98−$0.10

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?77¢123$9477%76Sharp
SELL YesWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?31¢29$8.9177%76Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?91¢167$15277%76Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?78¢166$13077%76Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?95.9¢249$23977%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?83¢100$8377%76Sharp
BUY NoIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?94¢83$7877%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?88.5¢139$12377%76Sharp
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?58¢5$2.9077%76Sharp
SELL NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?11.4¢5$0.5777%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?74¢24$1877%76Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?98.9¢125$12477%76Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?90.6¢167$15177%76Sharp
SELL NoWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?88¢4$3.5277%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?76¢28$2177%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?84.2¢5$4.2177%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?87.9¢1$1.2177%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?87.4¢5$4.3777%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?29¢5$1.4577%76Sharp
BUY YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?30.5¢5$1.5377%76Sharp