| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 353 | 76¢ | 77.5¢ | $273 | +$5.42 | +$60 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 530 | 46.2¢ | 51.2¢ | $271 | +$26 | −$9.25 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 410 | 65.2¢ | 63.5¢ | $260 | −$6.85 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | No | 330 | 72.2¢ | 76.5¢ | $252 | +$14 | +$21 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 250 | 96.4¢ | 97.2¢ | $243 | +$1.88 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 71.4¢ | 75.5¢ | $226 | +$12 | +$5.84 | |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 274 | 60.2¢ | 82.5¢ | $226 | +$61 | +$6.88 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | No | 301 | 65¢ | 69¢ | $207 | +$12 | +$11 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 200 | 73.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $163 | +$17 | +$17 | |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 258 | 63.1¢ | 58.3¢ | $150 | −$13 | −$0.59 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | No | 162 | 62.5¢ | 80¢ | $130 | +$28 | +$11 | |
| Will Geordin Hill-Lewis be the next mayor of Cape Town? | Yes | 144 | 88.9¢ | 88¢ | $127 | −$1.32 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | No | 171 | 71.9¢ | 73.5¢ | $126 | +$2.65 | +$1.82 | |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19? | Yes | 165 | 71.3¢ | 75¢ | $124 | +$6.14 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | No | 157 | 58.4¢ | 72.5¢ | $114 | +$22 | +$48 | |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 50.6¢ | 56.5¢ | $113 | +$12 | +$12 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026? | No | 223 | 38.8¢ | 50¢ | $111 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | No | 141 | 68.6¢ | 78¢ | $110 | +$13 | +$30 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 150 | 65¢ | 64¢ | $96 | −$1.50 | +$12 | |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $142.5B by October 31? | No | 100 | 80¢ | 93.5¢ | $93 | +$13 | +$12 | |
| Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $90 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31? | No | 419 | 20.6¢ | 20.5¢ | $86 | −$0.41 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 100 | 82.7¢ | 82.5¢ | $83 | −$0.25 | +$18 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 79¢ | 79.5¢ | $80 | +$0.50 | +$6.00 | |
| Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 108 | 74¢ | 72¢ | $78 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026? | No | 81 | 49.9¢ | 95.7¢ | $77 | +$37 | +$67 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 100 | 47.8¢ | 75¢ | $75 | +$27 | +$55 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | No | 100 | 47¢ | 73¢ | $73 | +$26 | +$21 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 150 | 46.2¢ | 43.7¢ | $66 | −$3.87 | $0 | |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | Yes | 201 | 35.6¢ | 32.4¢ | $65 | −$6.43 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | Yes | 140 | 42.3¢ | 42.5¢ | $60 | +$0.30 | +$12 | |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31? | No | 155 | 36.8¢ | 37¢ | $57 | +$0.33 | +$1.85 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 69 | 73.8¢ | 81.9¢ | $57 | +$5.58 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 150 | 31¢ | 36.5¢ | $55 | +$8.25 | $0 | |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? | No | 131 | 28.3¢ | 37.5¢ | $49 | +$12 | $0 | |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? | No | 39 | 88¢ | 97.6¢ | $38 | +$3.71 | +$4.40 | |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026? | Yes | 39 | 45¢ | 95¢ | $37 | +$20 | +$5.77 | |
| Will there be 4 or more US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | No | 39 | 90.3¢ | 95¢ | $37 | +$1.82 | +$7.47 | |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 209 | 18.4¢ | 17.5¢ | $37 | −$1.86 | $0 | |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | Yes | 40 | 49.5¢ | 77.5¢ | $31 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 46 | 56¢ | 63¢ | $29 | +$3.24 | +$9.74 | |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | Yes | 150 | 23¢ | 17¢ | $26 | −$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 130 | 20¢ | 18.5¢ | $24 | −$1.95 | $0 | |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | Hike 25 bps | 150 | 46.9¢ | 15¢ | $23 | −$48 | −$19 | |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30? | Yes | 26 | 54.8¢ | 82.5¢ | $21 | +$7.21 | $0 | |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27? | Yes | 20 | 51¢ | 82¢ | $16 | +$6.20 | $0 | |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | No | 84 | 17.6¢ | 17.5¢ | $15 | −$0.05 | −$5.81 | |
| Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026? | No | 40 | 37¢ | 34.5¢ | $14 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026? | No | 20 | 62¢ | 68¢ | $14 | +$1.20 | $0 | |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22? | Yes | 15 | 52¢ | 78.5¢ | $12 | +$3.98 | +$11 | |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 27¢ | 57.5¢ | $12 | +$6.13 | $0 | |
| Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | Yes | 40 | 33¢ | 21.5¢ | $8.60 | −$4.60 | $0 | |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 250 | 31.1¢ | 2.4¢ | $5.88 | −$72 | −$5.18 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | No | 7 | 71¢ | 77.5¢ | $5.05 | +$0.42 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 7.8¢ | 4.9¢ | $4.90 | −$2.90 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026? | No | 6 | 33¢ | 71.5¢ | $4.64 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? | No | 24 | 33.8¢ | 14¢ | $3.32 | −$4.69 | $0 | |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31? | Yes | 5 | 69¢ | 17.5¢ | $0.88 | −$2.58 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 10 | 19¢ | 4.5¢ | $0.44 | −$1.41 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 31, 2026? | No | 250 | 20.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$51 | +$8.25 | |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | Yes | 219 | 26.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$58 | −$1.68 | |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30? | No | 219 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.39 | +$59 | |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | No | 200 | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21 | +$4.77 | |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31? | No | 131 | 22.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 126 | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | +$42 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | No | 105 | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$19 | −$0.61 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 59.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | −$2.81 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | +$7.60 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | No | 100 | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.40 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026? | No | 83 | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$37 | +$3.00 | |
| Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026? | No | 52 | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.58 | −$1.81 | |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026? | Yes | 51 | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.21 | +$2.83 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30? | Yes | 50 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50 | 53.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$27 | −$22 | |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? | No | 40 | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.88 | +$0.25 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 25? | No | 32 | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.84 | $0 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | Yes | 30 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.10 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | Yes | 30 | 43¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will Albania win on 2026-10-06? | No | 25 | 49.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | −$0.31 | |
| Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | Yes | 16 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.34 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026? | Yes | 11 | 33¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.63 | −$16 | |
