| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | No | 661 | 89¢ | 89.5¢ | $592 | +$3.31 | −$197 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 940 | 71¢ | 61.5¢ | $578 | −$89 | −$9.66 | |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 393 | 89¢ | 92.5¢ | $363 | +$14 | −$94 | |
| Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31? | No | 482 | 89¢ | 75¢ | $361 | −$67 | −$40 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 15%-20%? | No | 556 | 89¢ | 64.5¢ | $358 | −$136 | −$107 | |
| Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31? | Anduril | 1,431 | 72¢ | 24.5¢ | $350 | −$680 | +$1.18 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 390 | 88.1¢ | 84.8¢ | $331 | −$13 | −$690 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? | No | 1,345 | 30¢ | 24.5¢ | $330 | −$74 | +$117 | |
| Will the Labour Party candidate win 40-45% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | No | 486 | 62.1¢ | 65¢ | $316 | +$14 | −$21 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-13 House election by 0%-5%? | No | 324 | 88¢ | 90.5¢ | $293 | +$8.10 | −$66 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 40%-45%? | No | 328 | 88.6¢ | 88.8¢ | $291 | +$0.49 | −$45 | |
| Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | No | 296 | 95.6¢ | 98.1¢ | $290 | +$7.40 | −$44 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? | No | 296 | 95.5¢ | 94.8¢ | $281 | −$2.07 | −$254 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | No | 827 | 33¢ | 33¢ | $273 | $0 | +$682 | |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? | No | 333 | 68¢ | 74.5¢ | $248 | +$22 | −$169 | |
| Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? | Yes | 353 | 55.2¢ | 69.5¢ | $246 | +$51 | +$4.75 | |
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 339 | 77.8¢ | 72¢ | $244 | −$19 | +$17 | |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3? | No | 424 | 33.1¢ | 57¢ | $242 | +$101 | +$26 | |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? | No | 309 | 80¢ | 75.5¢ | $233 | −$14 | −$61 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 344 | 67.1¢ | 67¢ | $231 | −$0.40 | −$658 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 509 | 27¢ | 45¢ | $229 | +$92 | +$239 | |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 365 | 49.7¢ | 62¢ | $226 | +$45 | +$26 | |
| Will Courtland Sutton have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | No | 255 | 87.9¢ | 87.9¢ | $224 | −$0.13 | −$17 | |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | No | 289 | 83¢ | 77.1¢ | $223 | −$17 | −$112 | |
| Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? | Yes | 495 | 46.3¢ | 44.6¢ | $220 | −$8.82 | +$6.48 | |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? | No | 423 | 46¢ | 52¢ | $220 | +$25 | +$84 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Attorney General election? | No | 382 | 54.8¢ | 57.5¢ | $220 | +$10 | +$0.86 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los die to a phantom? | Yes | 402 | 27.3¢ | 54¢ | $217 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31? | Yes | 313 | 60¢ | 69¢ | $216 | +$28 | −$12 | |
| Multipli.fi FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 227 | 94.8¢ | 93¢ | $211 | −$4.25 | −$33 | |
| Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 231 | 90.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $202 | −$5.90 | −$80 | |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31? | No | 300 | 32.7¢ | 67¢ | $201 | +$103 | +$3.31 | |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 514 | 37¢ | 39¢ | $200 | +$10 | +$48 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-03 House election by 55%-60%? | No | 234 | 90¢ | 85.1¢ | $199 | −$12 | −$69 | |
| Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? | Yes | 327 | 65.5¢ | 60¢ | $196 | −$18 | −$11 | |
| Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 290 | 39.1¢ | 67.5¢ | $196 | +$82 | +$29 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 210 | 92.9¢ | 92.7¢ | $195 | −$0.44 | −$301 | |
| Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? | Yes | 342 | 19.7¢ | 56.5¢ | $193 | +$126 | +$4.53 | |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m? | No | 267 | 63.4¢ | 71.5¢ | $191 | +$22 | +$9.30 | |
| Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%? | No | 308 | 67.4¢ | 61.9¢ | $191 | −$17 | −$102 | |
| Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | No | 282 | 73.3¢ | 66¢ | $186 | −$21 | −$113 | |
| Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October? | No | 496 | 32.2¢ | 37.5¢ | $186 | +$26 | +$103 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 0%-3%? | No | 233 | 76.9¢ | 79.5¢ | $186 | +$6.02 | −$36 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.475T by October 31? | Yes | 241 | 42.4¢ | 77¢ | $185 | +$83 | +$4.06 | |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | No | 268 | 52.9¢ | 69¢ | $185 | +$43 | +$44 | |
| Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%? | No | 435 | 42.1¢ | 42.5¢ | $185 | +$1.84 | +$18 | |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 2? | No | 259 | 25.7¢ | 71.5¢ | $185 | +$119 | +$42 | |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000? | No | 643 | 50¢ | 28.5¢ | $183 | −$138 | −$22 | |
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | No | 361 | 54.8¢ | 50¢ | $180 | −$17 | −$4.02 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? | No | 357 | 48¢ | 50¢ | $179 | +$7.04 | $0 | |
| Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 346 | 41.4¢ | 51.5¢ | $178 | +$35 | +$4.63 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? | No | 219 | 84¢ | 81.5¢ | $178 | −$5.46 | −$38 | |
| Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? | No | 335 | 52.2¢ | 53¢ | $178 | +$2.78 | −$5.23 | |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31? | Yes | 472 | 50.2¢ | 37.5¢ | $177 | −$60 | −$18 | |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in October? | Yes | 353 | 48.3¢ | 50¢ | $177 | +$6.07 | −$11 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2027? | No | 206 | 89.3¢ | 85.5¢ | $176 | −$7.90 | −$17 | |
| Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | No | 373 | 42.8¢ | 46.5¢ | $174 | +$14 | −$0.32 | |
| Beezie FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 294 | 54¢ | 58.5¢ | $172 | +$13 | −$34 | |
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | No | 493 | 39.1¢ | 34.5¢ | $170 | −$23 | +$21 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | Yes | 471 | 38.1¢ | 35.5¢ | $167 | −$12 | +$72 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 334 | 49.5¢ | 49.3¢ | $165 | −$0.92 | −$5.30 | |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31? | Yes | 555 | 24.7¢ | 29.5¢ | $164 | +$27 | +$12 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026? | No | 268 | 69¢ | 61¢ | $164 | −$21 | −$23 | |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | No | 261 | 48.2¢ | 62¢ | $162 | +$36 | +$16 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election by 35%-40%? | No | 226 | 82.3¢ | 71.5¢ | $161 | −$24 | −$11 | |
| Will AlloX launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 319 | 34.5¢ | 50.5¢ | $161 | +$51 | $0 | |
| Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by October 31? | No | 226 | 58¢ | 71¢ | $160 | +$29 | −$7.06 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 347 | 44.6¢ | 46¢ | $159 | +$4.74 | −$92 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election? | No | 213 | 77.7¢ | 74.5¢ | $159 | −$6.80 | −$24 | |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in October? | Yes | 777 | 7.4¢ | 20.3¢ | $158 | +$100 | $0 | |
| Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October? | No | 293 | 45.3¢ | 54¢ | $158 | +$25 | −$42 | |
| Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027? | No | 205 | 80.8¢ | 76.5¢ | $157 | −$8.90 | −$66 | |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? | Yes | 455 | 31.6¢ | 34.5¢ | $157 | +$13 | +$77 | |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | Yes | 495 | 15.9¢ | 31.7¢ | $157 | +$78 | +$44 | |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000? | No | 319 | 51.4¢ | 48.5¢ | $155 | −$9.21 | +$12 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | No | 338 | 26.8¢ | 45.5¢ | $154 | +$63 | +$13 | |
| Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or below $15 in 2026? | Yes | 337 | 30¢ | 45.5¢ | $153 | +$52 | +$20 | |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 230 | 73.9¢ | 66.5¢ | $153 | −$17 | −$20 | |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? | No | 209 | 67.6¢ | 72.5¢ | $152 | +$10 | −$61 | |
| Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? | No | 281 | 61.1¢ | 54¢ | $152 | −$20 | −$26 | |
| Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2028? | No | 335 | 43.1¢ | 45¢ | $151 | +$6.24 | +$6.80 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 344 | 47.8¢ | 43.5¢ | $150 | −$15 | −$108 | |
| Linera listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? | Yes | 319 | 27.1¢ | 47¢ | $150 | +$64 | +$7.82 | |
| Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? | No | 234 | 57.5¢ | 63.5¢ | $149 | +$14 | −$59 | |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | No | 355 | 38.7¢ | 41.6¢ | $148 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will Ján Forgáč win the 2026 Trenčín mayoral election? | No | 440 | 44.3¢ | 33.5¢ | $147 | −$47 | +$52 | |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026? | No | 275 | 28¢ | 53¢ | $146 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will Ján Nosko win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election? | No | 228 | 35.7¢ | 63.5¢ | $145 | +$64 | +$97 | |
| Will Chuba Hubbard have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | No | 290 | 40.1¢ | 49.5¢ | $144 | +$27 | +$0.41 | |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | Yes | 381 | 34.4¢ | 37.5¢ | $143 | +$12 | +$34 | |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.55% in October? | Yes | 208 | 50.4¢ | 68.5¢ | $143 | +$38 | −$9.08 | |
| Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31? | Stripe | 327 | 25.2¢ | 43.5¢ | $142 | +$60 | +$6.90 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 70%-75%? | Yes | 400 | 24.5¢ | 35.5¢ | $142 | +$44 | +$21 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election? | No | 305 | 50.1¢ | 46.5¢ | $142 | −$11 | +$15 | |
| Will ARENA win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election? | Yes | 329 | 26.9¢ | 43¢ | $141 | +$53 | +$19 | |
| UBS announces move out of Switzerland by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 436 | 23.8¢ | 32¢ | $139 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | No | 392 | 35.6¢ | 35.5¢ | $139 | −$0.58 | +$50 | |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October? | Yes | 428 | 15.2¢ | 32.5¢ | $139 | +$74 | $0 | |
| Multipli.fi FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Yes | 264 | 43.1¢ | 52.5¢ | $139 | +$25 | +$5.22 | |
| Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections? | No | 230 | 68.8¢ | 60¢ | $138 | −$20 | −$60 | |