PnL all-time+$157kvol $14.1M
PnL 30d+$6,402gains $8,736 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$1,885win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate89.8%adj 83.1% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$466kcash n/a
Positions10 / 110open / all-time
Max drawdown−13.9%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 2d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$166kbelow peak −$2,826Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale74
Adjusted win rateraw 89.8% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable68
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d92
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity86
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$28.8kWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Noopen+$24.1kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$23.4kNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$18.1kWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Noopen+$12.8k
Worst markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$34.2kWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$24.1kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$19.3kWill Trump win Florida by 8+ points? · Noclosed−$11.6kWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? · Yesclosed−$2,433
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 155k | 85¢ | 83.5¢ | $129k | −$2,320 | +$15.1k | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 132k | 89.8¢ | 96.2¢ | $127k | +$8,415 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 80.0k | 50¢ | 80.2¢ | $64.1k | +$24.1k | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | 49.3k | 99¢ | 99.2¢ | $48.9k | +$74 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 49.3k | 96.4¢ | 97.2¢ | $47.9k | +$373 | $0 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 23.6k | 98.2¢ | 98.4¢ | $23.2k | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 80.0k | 50¢ | 19.9¢ | $15.9k | −$24.1k | $0 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 7,471 | 93¢ | 97.4¢ | $7,273 | +$325 | +$21 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 3,000 | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $2,999 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 69.4k | 24.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16.9k | −$2,401 |
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