Traders/Rank #2,238

11B7c7e5D961

0xaee…1154

PnL 10k+OtherPolitics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$32.5kvol $3.35M

PnL 30d+$15.4kgains $19.5k · losses $10.9k

PnL 7d+$2,946win rate 7d 44.4%

Win rate38.5%adj 38.9% · 30d 38.5%

Open value$19.5kcash n/a

Positions484 / 2,653open / all-time

Max drawdown−13.4%of equity peak

Account age11molast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$40.9kbelow peak $0Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale64

Adjusted win rateraw 38.5% · shrunk toward 50%0

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity87

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Noclosed+$886 Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yesclosed+$712 Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed+$640 Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen+$592 Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed+$545

Worst markets

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$831 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$547 Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Noclosed−$412 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? · Noclosed−$403 Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Noclosed−$339

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	950	81.1¢	83.5¢	$793	+$23	−$854	21d 1h
Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	577	92.8¢	98.9¢	$570	+$35	−$106	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	830	45.3¢	67¢	$556	+$180	+$198	20d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	830	58.6¢	64¢	$531	+$45	−$267	20d 1h
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	No	520	82.8¢	86¢	$447	+$17	−$140	51d 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?	No	520	80.7¢	82.5¢	$429	+$9.31	−$37	51d 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	830	38.9¢	48.5¢	$403	+$80	+$332	20d 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	430	81¢	86.1¢	$370	+$22	−$112	21d 1h
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	374	84.7¢	96.4¢	$361	+$44	−$16	3mo
Will StepFun be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	362	91.6¢	98.5¢	$357	+$25	−$60	51d 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	400	75.1¢	84¢	$336	+$35	+$29	21d 1h
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	470	41.6¢	70.8¢	$333	+$137	+$11	21d 1h
Will Tencent be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	325	90.6¢	96.4¢	$313	+$19	−$48	51d 1h
Will MiniMax be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	No	299	87.5¢	98.2¢	$293	+$32	−$35	3mo
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	500	46.9¢	56.5¢	$283	+$48	+$96	51d 1h
Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	290	75.1¢	97¢	$281	+$63	−$15	3mo
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	No	360	71.3¢	77¢	$277	+$21	−$35	51d 1h
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	950	27.9¢	29¢	$276	+$10	+$78	21d 1h
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	440	60.8¢	58.5¢	$257	−$10	+$141	20d 1h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	610	30¢	41.3¢	$252	+$69	+$0.94	20d 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?	Yes	322	60.4¢	77¢	$248	+$54	−$176	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	No	360	64.3¢	68.5¢	$247	+$15	−$32	51d 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	360	58.9¢	65¢	$234	+$22	+$8.99	51d 1h
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	327	61.8¢	67¢	$219	+$17	−$102	3mo
Will Meituan be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	223	87.7¢	96.5¢	$215	+$19	$0	3mo
Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	220	95¢	96.5¢	$212	+$3.21	−$8.80	51d 1h
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	440	28.5¢	45.5¢	$200	+$75	+$179	21d 1h
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	750	27.3¢	26.5¢	$199	−$6.24	+$185	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	240	73.7¢	81.2¢	$195	+$18	−$347	20d 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	610	36.5¢	31.5¢	$192	−$31	−$47	20d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	365	37.7¢	47¢	$171	+$34	+$149	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	327	32.2¢	52¢	$170	+$65	+$73	51d 1h
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	720	28.8¢	23.5¢	$169	−$38	+$179	20d 1h
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	No	520	28.3¢	32.5¢	$169	+$22	+$35	51d 1h
Will Nvidia be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	170	94.1¢	98.1¢	$167	+$6.83	−$11	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	460	30.6¢	36¢	$166	+$25	+$427	20d 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	240	58.3¢	68.5¢	$164	+$24	+$133	20d 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	300	50.4¢	54.5¢	$164	+$12	$0	51d 1h
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	184	67.5¢	87.5¢	$161	+$37	−$122	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	420	39.2¢	37.5¢	$158	−$7.18	+$380	20d 1h
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	440	32.3¢	35.5¢	$156	+$14	+$136	51d 1h
Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	396	23.9¢	38¢	$150	+$56	+$101	3mo
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	240	54.4¢	62.5¢	$150	+$19	−$232	20d 1h
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	340	20.9¢	44¢	$149	+$78	+$51	20d 1h
Will ByteDance be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	146	92¢	96.4¢	$141	+$6.50	−$16	3mo
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	373	29.9¢	36.5¢	$136	+$25	+$158	51d 1h
Will Manchester City finish in the top 5 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	240	68.3¢	53.5¢	$128	−$35	−$65	8mo
Will StepFun be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	127	88.4¢	99.4¢	$126	+$14	−$33	3mo
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	184	58.8¢	68.5¢	$126	+$18	−$29	51d 1h
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	297	13.9¢	41.8¢	$124	+$83	+$63	21d 1h
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1,068	3.1¢	11.5¢	$123	+$90	+$266	20d 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	950	11.4¢	12.5¢	$119	+$11	+$340	21d 1h
Will Baidu be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	No	120	92.4¢	98.9¢	$119	+$7.84	−$6.55	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	323	28.7¢	36¢	$116	+$24	+$62	3mo
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	365	30.9¢	31.5¢	$115	+$2.32	+$139	51d 1h
Will MiniMax be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	No	117	91.5¢	97.6¢	$114	+$7.10	+$8.71	51d 1h
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	430	20.3¢	26.5¢	$114	+$27	+$59	21d 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	220	71.6¢	51.5¢	$113	−$44	−$138	20d 1h
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	184	56.3¢	60.5¢	$111	+$7.65	−$29	51d 1h
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	200	39.9¢	54.5¢	$109	+$29	+$51	51d 1h
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	220	44.1¢	49.5¢	$109	+$12	−$2.60	51d 1h
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	420	20.3¢	24.9¢	$104	+$19	+$56	20d 1h
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	165	57.5¢	61.5¢	$101	+$6.58	+$47	51d 1h
Will Tencent be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	105	92.7¢	95.9¢	$101	+$3.32	−$106	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	530	12.7¢	19¢	$101	+$34	+$137	21d 1h
Will Thinky be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	102	95.7¢	97.5¢	$100	+$1.79	−$2.98	51d 1h
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	722	18.9¢	13.5¢	$97	−$39	+$53	51d 1h
Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	94	92.2¢	96.4¢	$91	+$3.86	−$74	51d 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	220	7.3¢	40.6¢	$89	+$73	+$28	20d 1h
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	420	12.6¢	20¢	$84	+$31	+$88	20d 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?	Yes	399	13¢	21¢	$84	+$32	+$15	3mo
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	92	92.7¢	88.9¢	$82	−$3.54	$0	3mo
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	83	82¢	97¢	$80	+$12	−$66	3mo
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	268	30.1¢	28¢	$75	−$5.76	+$68	3mo
Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	201	25.4¢	36¢	$72	+$21	+$136	51d 1h
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	313	3.2¢	22.6¢	$71	+$61	+$111	21d 1h
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	693	8.2¢	10¢	$69	+$12	+$20	20d 1h
Will Bytedance be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	73	92.1¢	93.2¢	$68	+$0.78	+$0.45	3mo
Will Meituan be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	70	93.1¢	94.3¢	$66	+$0.81	−$152	21d 1h
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	626	18.4¢	10.5¢	$66	−$50	+$162	21d 1h
Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	117	7.9¢	53.9¢	$63	+$54	+$12	20d 1h
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	394	13.1¢	15.9¢	$62	+$11	+$101	3mo
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	No	120	47.5¢	48.5¢	$58	+$1.19	$0	8mo
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1,229	3.2¢	4.6¢	$57	+$17	$0	20d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	320	18.1¢	17.5¢	$56	−$1.93	+$370	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	76	70.6¢	73.5¢	$56	+$2.21	−$40	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	347	10.8¢	16¢	$56	+$18	+$25	51d 1h
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	84	57¢	63.5¢	$53	+$5.45	+$130	21d 1h
Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	60	90¢	87.5¢	$53	−$1.50	$0	3mo
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	420	21¢	12.5¢	$52	−$36	+$85	20d 1h
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	254	20.3¢	20¢	$51	−$0.90	+$119	51d 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	160	17.5¢	31.5¢	$50	+$22	+$74	51d 1h
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	334	21.5¢	15¢	$50	−$22	+$34	51d 1h
Will Anthropic be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	51	95¢	98.4¢	$50	+$1.71	+$4.53	20d 1h
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	223	15¢	22¢	$49	+$16	+$9.07	3mo
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	391	26.8¢	12.5¢	$49	−$56	+$143	51d 1h
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	405	4.8¢	12¢	$49	+$29	+$12	51d 1h
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	440	33.8¢	10.5¢	$46	−$102	+$79	20d 1h
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	275	12.6¢	16.5¢	$45	+$11	+$60	51d 1h
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	164	23.1¢	27.5¢	$45	+$7.29	$0	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
26m ago	BUY Yes	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	43.4¢	70	$30	39%	59
41m ago	BUY Yes	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	40.3¢	205	$83	39%	59
57m ago	BUY Yes	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	27¢	16	$4.40	39%	59
57m ago	BUY Yes	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	26¢	80	$21	39%	59
58m ago	BUY No	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	52.3¢	404	$211	39%	59
1h ago	SELL No	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	78¢	35	$27	39%	59
3h ago	BUY Yes	Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?	9.3¢	52	$4.84	39%	59
4h ago	SELL Yes	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	63.7¢	90	$57	39%	59
4h ago	BUY Yes	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	71¢	36	$26	39%	59
5h ago	BUY Yes	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	39.6¢	130	$51	39%	59
5h ago	BUY Yes	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	25.9¢	130	$34	39%	59
6h ago	BUY Yes	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	8.4¢	118	$9.92	39%	59
6h ago	BUY No	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	18¢	132	$24	39%	59
6h ago	BUY No	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	82¢	132	$108	39%	59
6h ago	SELL No	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	47¢	180	$85	39%	59
6h ago	BUY Yes	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	36¢	180	$65	39%	59
7h ago	BUY Yes	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	30.3¢	80	$24	39%	59
8h ago	BUY Yes	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	62¢	60	$37	39%	59
9h ago	BUY Yes	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	29¢	20	$5.80	39%	59
10h ago	BUY Yes	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	52.2¢	190	$99	39%	59