sharpside
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Traders/Rank #481

qwen4.1.fund

0xb0c…fe7f
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+PoliticsSportWeatherOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$419kvol $26.1M
PnL 30d+$43.7kgains $58.0k · losses $17.8k
PnL 7d−$33.4kwin rate 7d 37.9%
Win rate37.9%adj 38.3% · 30d 37.9%
Open value$908cash n/a
Positions2,000 / 82,960open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.1%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 20s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.14Mbelow peak −$563kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale80
Adjusted win rateraw 37.9% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity63

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5442.9¢9.5¢$52+$36$0
Will the Labour Party candidate win 35-40% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes78410.7¢6.5¢$51−$33$0
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5442.9¢8¢$44+$28$0
Will the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes78410.7¢2.9¢$23−$61$0
Will the Labour Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes78410.7¢2.4¢$19−$65$0
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes28.3k1.1¢0.1¢$14−$302+$11.1k
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes27.8k1.1¢0.1¢$14−$296+$11.2k
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes26.7k1.1¢0.1¢$13−$285+$11.8k
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes26.6k1.1¢0.1¢$13−$284+$11.3k
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes25.9k1.1¢0.1¢$13−$276+$9,645
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes24.8k1.1¢0.1¢$12−$264+$6,063
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes19.9k1.1¢0.1¢$9.95−$212+$11.8k
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.9k3.1¢0.1¢$9.94−$611$0
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.9k3.1¢0.1¢$9.94−$611$0
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.9k3.1¢0.1¢$9.94−$611$0
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.9k3.1¢0.1¢$9.94−$611$0
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.8k3.1¢0.1¢$9.91−$609$0
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.8k3.1¢0.1¢$9.90−$609+$4.69
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.7k3.1¢0.1¢$9.84−$605$0
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes19.6k3.1¢0.1¢$9.78−$601$0
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes18.1k3.1¢0.1¢$9.05−$557$0
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes17.6k3.1¢0.1¢$8.80−$541−$69
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes17.5k3.1¢0.1¢$8.75−$538−$72
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes16.9k1.1¢0.1¢$8.45−$181−$210
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes16.9k1.1¢0.1¢$8.45−$181+$3,935
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes16.7k3.1¢0.1¢$8.36−$514+$0.08
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes16.3k3.1¢0.1¢$8.14−$500−$60
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes15.6k2.8¢0.1¢$7.80−$423$0
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes15.5k2.8¢0.1¢$7.77−$422$0
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes15.5k2.8¢0.1¢$7.77−$422$0
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes14.8k3.1¢0.1¢$7.39−$454−$154
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes12.9k1.8¢0.1¢$6.43−$219$0
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes10.9k1.8¢0.1¢$5.47−$186−$0.34
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes10.0k1.8¢0.1¢$5.02−$171−$6.13
Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes9,7784.2¢0.1¢$4.89−$403+$22
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes8,4061.8¢0.1¢$4.20−$143−$14
Will Racing Santander win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes2,6804.2¢0.2¢$4.02−$108+$934
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,2591.7¢0.1¢$3.63−$122−$0.02
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes7,0291.7¢0.1¢$3.51−$118−$3.10
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,8242.5¢0.1¢$3.41−$167$0
Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,8242.5¢0.1¢$3.41−$167$0
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,8242.5¢0.1¢$3.41−$167$0
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,8242.5¢0.1¢$3.41−$167$0
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,8042.5¢0.1¢$3.40−$167$0
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,7732.5¢0.1¢$3.39−$166$0
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,7732.5¢0.1¢$3.39−$166$0
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes6,6811.8¢0.1¢$3.34−$114−$45
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes6,4497.7¢0.1¢$3.22−$493−$15
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes6,4497.7¢0.1¢$3.22−$493−$15
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,2302.5¢0.1¢$3.12−$153$0
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,2302.5¢0.1¢$3.12−$153$0
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,2302.5¢0.1¢$3.12−$153$0
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes6,2302.5¢0.1¢$3.12−$153$0
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes6,1187.7¢0.1¢$3.06−$468−$15
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,8063.4¢0.1¢$2.90−$195$0
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,7923.4¢0.1¢$2.90−$195−$0.47
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,7903.4¢0.1¢$2.89−$195−$0.54
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,7903.4¢0.1¢$2.89−$195−$0.54
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes5,7903.4¢0.1¢$2.89−$195−$0.54
Will George Galloway finish third in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes1501.5¢1.9¢$2.85+$0.61$0
Will Elche win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes5,4904.2¢0.1¢$2.74−$226+$305
Will Málaga win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes5,4404.2¢0.1¢$2.72−$224+$63
Will Les Républicains hold 125-128 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?Yes2014.3¢13.3¢$2.65−$0.21$0
Will Beni Rae Harmony be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes5112.9¢0.5¢$2.30−$13−$0.11
Will Spain win the UEFA EURO 2028?Yes101.5¢22.5¢$2.25+$2.10+$26
Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes4,4393.8¢0.1¢$2.22−$167−$4.67
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes4,4393.8¢0.1¢$2.22−$167−$4.67
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes4,4393.8¢0.1¢$2.22−$167−$0.42
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes4,0217.7¢0.1¢$2.01−$307$0
Will the Labour Party candidate win 50% or more of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Yes78410.7¢0.3¢$1.96−$82$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,500,000 and 2,650,000?Yes3512.5¢5¢$1.75−$2.63$0
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1?Yes3,39314.3¢0.1¢$1.70−$483−$121
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Yes3,29020¢0.1¢$1.65−$656−$84
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Yes3,27020¢0.1¢$1.64−$652−$94
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes1,0001.9¢0.2¢$1.50−$17−$4.70
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,8671.4¢0.1¢$1.43−$37$0
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,8671.4¢0.1¢$1.43−$37$0
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,8671.4¢0.1¢$1.43−$37$0
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,8671.4¢0.1¢$1.43−$37$0
Exact Score: Real Racing Club 5 - 4 Valencia CF?Yes102.7¢14.1¢$1.41+$1.14$0
Will Florida State Seminoles Win the 2026 ACC Championship?Yes1084.8¢1.3¢$1.40−$3.74$0
Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,7473.5¢0.1¢$1.37−$94$0
Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,7423.5¢0.1¢$1.37−$94$0
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,7323.5¢0.1¢$1.37−$93$0
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 980m and 985m by October 31?Yes39016.7¢0.4¢$1.37−$64−$44
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes2,6561.7¢0.1¢$1.33−$44−$78
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,6513.4¢0.1¢$1.33−$90$0
Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,6513.4¢0.1¢$1.33−$90$0
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,5713.4¢0.1¢$1.29−$86$0
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,5713.4¢0.1¢$1.29−$86$0
Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,3793.3¢0.1¢$1.19−$78−$4.58
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,3793.3¢0.1¢$1.19−$78−$0.01
Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Yes2963.1¢0.4¢$1.18−$8.06−$0.50

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on October 9?98.7¢10$9.8738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on October 9?99.8¢10$9.9838%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on October 9?99.6¢10$9.9538%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 9?94¢10$9.4038%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 9?98¢10$9.8038%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 10?98¢17$1638%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on October 10?99.9¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 10?99.8¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 10?45¢17$7.4838%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 10?99.8¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 10?74¢17$1238%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 10?99.9¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on October 10?99.8¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on October 10?99.6¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 10?99.9¢17$1738%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 9?98.5¢10$9.8538%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 9?99¢10$9.9038%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on October 9?99.8¢10$9.9838%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 9?83¢10$8.3038%58
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 9?99.8¢10$9.9838%58