sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,422

20260601

0xb36…1077
WhalePnL 10k+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$18.8kvol $1.21M
PnL 30d+$8,575gains $28.7k · losses $5,487
PnL 7d−$11.5kwin rate 7d 46.2%
Win rate64.4%adj 63.0% · 30d 63.2%
Open value$38.2kcash n/a
Positions47 / 237open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.8%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 28m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$20.9kbelow peak −$11.4kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale61
Adjusted win rateraw 64.4% · shrunk toward 50%58
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable79
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity62

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Noclosed+$8,211Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$6,487US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yesclosed+$4,749US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Noclosed+$4,648Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,037

Worst markets

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · Noopen−$9,499Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$7,995Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Noopen−$2,629US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Noclosed−$2,376US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yesclosed−$1,453

Open positions · 47

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes14.3k93.7¢90.3¢$12.9k−$491+$1.30
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No5,32071.6¢91.5¢$4,868+$1,061$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No5,96169¢66.5¢$3,964−$152$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes7,25956.8¢44.5¢$3,230−$889$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No3,34379.9¢83¢$2,775+$104−$100
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes2,00080.2¢86.5¢$1,730+$126$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No2,80757.6¢58.5¢$1,642+$25$0
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No2,47234.5¢56.5¢$1,396+$543+$100
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes1,10083¢98.6¢$1,084+$171$0
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No1,28271¢76.5¢$980+$70+$13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No1,00074¢84.5¢$845+$105$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes1,06552.5¢56.8¢$605+$46+$9.69
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Yes1,21938¢36¢$439−$24−$0.03
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 14, 2026?No44378.6¢90.5¢$401+$53−$3.60
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes50058.2¢73.5¢$367+$77$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?No20065¢67.5¢$135+$5.00$0
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes16685¢80.5¢$134−$7.48$0
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Yes70035.1¢18.8¢$131−$115$0
No one announced as next James Bond?Yes40026.3¢31.6¢$126+$21$0
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?No16457¢59¢$97+$3.28$0
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?No11871¢72¢$85+$1.18$0
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No10057¢44.5¢$45−$13$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes30010¢12¢$36+$6.00$0
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes20027.5¢17.5¢$35−$20$0
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes20019.2¢12.7¢$25−$13$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes30011¢7.5¢$23−$10$0
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Yes10017.5¢14.5¢$14−$2.95$0
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Hike 25 bps1260¢14.5¢$1.68−$5.29$0
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?No14.3k66.6¢0¢$0−$9,503+$4.18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes7,00031.1¢0¢$0−$2,179−$5,815
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?No6,20042.5¢0¢$0−$2,637+$7.05
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Yes2,2772.3¢0¢$0−$52−$1.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No1,68972.1¢0¢$0−$1,218+$26
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Yes1,2657.9¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?Yes1,22633.7¢0¢$0−$413−$4.13
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Yes1,19774.8¢0¢$0−$895−$0.91
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes90463¢0¢$0−$570$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No90066¢0¢$0−$594$0
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16?Yes40042¢0¢$0−$168$0
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes35014.1¢0¢$0−$50−$89
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes3506.1¢0¢$0−$21$0
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes34715.1¢0¢$0−$53+$5.23
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)No30048.7¢0¢$0−$146$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?No27079¢0¢$0−$213$0
Will there be between 10 and 15 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Yes2244.5¢0¢$0−$10$0
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No10062¢0¢$0−$62−$1.18
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?No10069¢0¢$0−$69−$0.85

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?94¢12.0k$11.3k64%66Whale
SELL YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?83¢1,400$1,16264%66
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)84.8¢443$37664%66
BUY NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)83¢80$6664%66
SELL YesWill MrBeast's next video get at least 150 million views on week 1?99.7¢145$14564%66
SELL YesWill North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?5¢1,131$5764%66
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?16¢6,358$1,01764%66
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?54.3¢420$22864%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?69¢2,465$1,70164%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?68¢250$17064%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?68¢200$13664%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?68¢1,800$1,22464%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?68¢1,800$1,22464%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?67¢939$62964%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?66¢200$13264%66
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?66¢416$27564%66
SELL YesWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?40.1¢800$32064%66
BUY NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?75¢481$36064%66
BUY NoWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?74¢120$8964%66
SELL NoWill Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?74.4¢12.0k$8,95164%66