Traders/Rank #1,031

Poligarch

0xb40…7cc9

SharpPnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+WeatherPolitics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$196kvol $29.5M

PnL 30d−$48.7kgains $6,591 · losses $3,659

PnL 7d−$24.1kwin rate 7d 64.6%

Win rate64.6%adj 64.0% · 30d 64.6%

Open value$80.2kcash n/a

Positions2,000 / 56,366open / all-time

Max drawdown−1.9%of equity peak

Account age1.1ylast trade 58s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$206kbelow peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

78/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale76

Adjusted win rateraw 64.6% · shrunk toward 50%60

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity98

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? · Yesopen+$3,390 Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? · Yesopen+$2,263 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? · Noopen+$1,489 Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? · Noclosed+$1,026 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? · Noopen+$995

Worst markets

Trump renames AI by September 30? · Noopen−$2,151 Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Noopen−$798 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$785 Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Yesopen−$746 Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? · Yesclosed−$644

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	1,087	62.5¢	100¢	$1,087	+$407	−$96	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	855	45.6¢	100¢	$855	+$465	+$20	ended
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 28?	No	806	63.2¢	100¢	$806	+$296	+$64	ended
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	Yes	649	45.8¢	100¢	$649	+$352	+$1,911	ended
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?	No	518	52.4¢	100¢	$518	+$247	−$158	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 21?	Yes	428	50¢	100¢	$428	+$214	+$650	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 27?	Yes	365	10.2¢	100¢	$365	+$328	+$84	ended
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 9?	No	355	83.9¢	95.8¢	$340	+$42	−$6.92	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 1?	No	311	47.2¢	100¢	$311	+$164	−$12	ended
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	309	61.9¢	100¢	$309	+$118	−$246	ended
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 10?	Yes	306	52.6¢	100¢	$306	+$145	−$3.32	ended
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20?	Yes	293	61.9¢	100¢	$293	+$112	+$254	ended
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 8?	No	287	72.3¢	100¢	$287	+$80	−$8.16	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 9?	Yes	290	94.2¢	98¢	$284	+$11	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?	Yes	281	21.2¢	100¢	$281	+$221	+$136	ended
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?	Yes	279	61¢	100¢	$279	+$109	+$111	ended
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 14?	No	275	50.7¢	100¢	$275	+$135	−$7.69	ended
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on September 15?	Yes	271	65.5¢	100¢	$271	+$93	−$12	ended
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on October 8?	No	258	78.1¢	100¢	$258	+$56	−$25	ended
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	256	54.4¢	100¢	$256	+$117	−$184	ended
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	Yes	255	64.8¢	100¢	$255	+$90	+$3,300	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 9?	No	281	87.2¢	90.2¢	$253	+$8.39	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on September 6?	Yes	250	38.1¢	100¢	$250	+$155	+$4.11	ended
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 15?	No	246	63.9¢	100¢	$246	+$89	+$14	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	236	66.2¢	100¢	$236	+$80	+$125	ended
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	No	230	30.5¢	100¢	$230	+$160	+$835	ended
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 21?	No	219	57¢	100¢	$219	+$94	+$12	ended
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 15?	No	219	60.7¢	100¢	$219	+$86	−$12	ended
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on September 19?	Yes	201	65.2¢	100¢	$201	+$70	−$17	ended
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 1?	No	200	54.9¢	100¢	$200	+$90	−$12	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 3?	Yes	197	47.6¢	100¢	$197	+$103	+$297	ended
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 9?	No	232	88.1¢	84.5¢	$196	−$8.37	−$0.19	ended
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on September 5?	No	188	57.5¢	100¢	$188	+$80	−$7.38	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?	Yes	186	63.2¢	100¢	$186	+$68	+$36	ended
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 1?	No	179	39.2¢	100¢	$179	+$109	+$425	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 18?	No	177	37.2¢	100¢	$177	+$111	+$20	ended
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 4?	No	175	65.2¢	100¢	$175	+$61	+$19	ended
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?	Yes	170	62.5¢	100¢	$170	+$64	−$0.57	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3?	No	167	61.4¢	100¢	$167	+$64	−$1.89	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 6?	Yes	166	62.1¢	100¢	$166	+$63	−$2.99	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 18?	No	165	57.4¢	100¢	$165	+$70	+$7.13	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 21?	No	164	63.3¢	100¢	$164	+$60	+$22	ended
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 25?	No	160	54¢	100¢	$160	+$74	−$14	ended
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on September 2?	Yes	153	52.7¢	100¢	$153	+$72	+$41	ended
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 2?	Yes	150	60.8¢	100¢	$150	+$59	+$4.43	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on October 6?	Yes	150	52.9¢	100¢	$150	+$71	+$9.85	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 17?	Yes	149	34.2¢	100¢	$149	+$98	+$18	ended
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 25?	No	149	57¢	100¢	$149	+$64	−$30	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 9?	No	179	62¢	82.5¢	$148	+$37	−$6.62	ended
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on October 9?	Yes	208	50.9¢	71¢	$147	+$42	−$0.73	ended
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	146	59.1¢	100¢	$146	+$60	+$429	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 8?	No	146	83.5¢	100¢	$145	+$24	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on September 8?	No	144	63.8¢	100¢	$144	+$52	+$20	ended
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	143	83.9¢	100¢	$143	+$23	+$65	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 9?	Yes	157	32.1¢	90.5¢	$142	+$91	+$0.22	ended
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 4?	Yes	141	22.4¢	100¢	$141	+$110	+$45	ended
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on August 26?	No	140	60.1¢	100¢	$140	+$56	−$1.67	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 20?	Yes	137	33.4¢	100¢	$137	+$92	+$142	ended
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 24?	Yes	137	41.6¢	100¢	$137	+$80	−$33	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 23?	Yes	134	52.4¢	100¢	$134	+$64	+$25	ended
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 6?	Yes	133	62.9¢	100¢	$133	+$49	−$5.21	ended
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 25?	Yes	132	65.5¢	100¢	$132	+$46	+$39	ended
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 22?	No	132	58.1¢	100¢	$132	+$55	+$3.78	ended
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	No	129	53¢	100¢	$129	+$60	−$25	ended
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 20?	No	128	65.1¢	100¢	$128	+$45	−$5.96	ended
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 31?	No	128	62.1¢	100¢	$128	+$48	−$3.42	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	No	126	58.1¢	100¢	$126	+$53	−$42	ended
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 24?	Yes	126	33.3¢	100¢	$126	+$84	+$39	ended
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 4?	No	126	55.6¢	100¢	$126	+$56	+$40	ended
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	123	42¢	100¢	$123	+$72	+$583	ended
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 22?	Yes	123	61.8¢	100¢	$123	+$47	−$7.87	ended
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 26?	No	123	66.4¢	100¢	$123	+$41	+$15	ended
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on September 1?	No	122	46.5¢	100¢	$122	+$65	+$0.64	ended
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on September 12?	Yes	121	51.8¢	100¢	$121	+$58	+$0.86	ended
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 21?	No	120	65.6¢	100¢	$120	+$41	−$7.38	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 1?	No	120	64¢	100¢	$120	+$43	−$14	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	120	46.2¢	100¢	$120	+$65	+$7.58	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 3?	No	120	64.8¢	100¢	$120	+$42	−$1.35	ended
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	119	48.9¢	100¢	$119	+$61	+$1.00	ended
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 24?	Yes	118	51.8¢	100¢	$118	+$57	+$231	ended
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 2?	Yes	116	63.1¢	100¢	$116	+$43	−$6.01	ended
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on September 3?	No	112	59.2¢	100¢	$112	+$45	+$33	ended
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	111	48.7¢	100¢	$111	+$57	+$66	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 15?	Yes	110	60.8¢	100¢	$110	+$43	+$72	ended
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 5?	Yes	109	41.9¢	100¢	$109	+$63	+$1.87	ended
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	109	65.3¢	100¢	$109	+$38	+$429	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 9?	No	128	80.7¢	85.2¢	$109	+$5.66	−$48	ended
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 26?	No	108	58.8¢	100¢	$108	+$45	−$1.84	ended
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5?	Yes	106	65.9¢	100¢	$106	+$36	−$18	ended
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	106	57¢	100¢	$106	+$46	+$15	ended
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 2?	Yes	105	58.2¢	100¢	$105	+$44	+$156	ended
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on July 31?	No	104	32.9¢	100¢	$104	+$70	+$11	ended
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on September 22?	No	104	64.8¢	100¢	$104	+$36	−$53	ended
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 10?	Yes	104	60.3¢	100¢	$104	+$41	−$1.09	ended
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 21?	No	101	56.9¢	100¢	$101	+$43	−$15	ended
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 9?	No	101	86¢	99.3¢	$101	+$13	$0	ended
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 4?	Yes	100	66.2¢	100¢	$100	+$34	−$1.44	ended
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?	Yes	100	51.5¢	100¢	$100	+$48	+$298	ended
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on September 4?	Yes	100	61.1¢	100¢	$100	+$39	+$34	ended
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	100	33.8¢	100¢	$100	+$66	+$208	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
58s ago	BUY Yes	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	24¢	5	$1.10	65%	78	Sharp
3m ago	BUY Yes	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on October 9?	60¢	13	$7.68	65%	78	Sharp
8m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 9?	41¢	7	$2.92	65%	78	Sharp
9m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 10?	78¢	10	$7.80	65%	78	Sharp
11m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 10?	66¢	12	$7.92	65%	78	Sharp
11m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on October 10?	85¢	15	$13	65%	78	Sharp
12m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 10?	63¢	1	$0.55	65%	78	Sharp
14m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9?	83¢	10	$8.30	65%	78	Sharp
14m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 9?	83¢	10	$8.30	65%	78	Sharp
23m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	33¢	20	$6.60	65%	78	Sharp
39m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on October 9?	32.6¢	20	$6.52	65%	78	Sharp
39m ago	BUY Yes	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 9?	14¢	3	$0.37	65%	78	Sharp
39m ago	BUY Yes	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 10?	61¢	20	$12	65%	78	Sharp
40m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 10?	59¢	50	$30	65%	78	Sharp
45m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 10?	89¢	20	$18	65%	78	Sharp
49m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	36¢	10	$3.60	65%	78	Sharp
55m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on October 10?	87¢	20	$17	65%	78	Sharp
55m ago	BUY Yes	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 10?	48¢	15	$7.17	65%	78	Sharp
57m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	70¢	100	$70	65%	78	Sharp
57m ago	BUY No	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	33¢	24	$8.02	65%	78	Sharp