sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,879

PcMYjCcPrd5yb35I

0xb4e…b668
<7d old<14d old<30d oldPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4.68vol $2,781
PnL 30d+$9.64gains $2.06 · losses $3.19
PnL 7d+$9.64win rate 7d 60.0%
Win rate60.0%adj 52.0% · 30d 60.0%
Open value$1,253cash n/a
Positions26 / 31open / all-time
Max drawdown−0.4%of equity peak
Account age6dlast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$12below peak −$0.81Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale10
Adjusted win rateraw 60.0% · shrunk toward 50%30
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable50
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$11Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yesopen+$5.59Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yesopen+$4.37US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Noopen+$3.06Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Noopen+$1.82

Worst markets

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yesopen−$3.45Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · Noopen−$3.32Will there be no Hormuz agreement? · Noopen−$2.56US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yesopen−$2.14US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Noclosed−$1.74

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No66491¢90.5¢$600−$3.32$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No17597.5¢99.3¢$173+$3.06$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes9894.3¢97.7¢$96+$3.35+$1.02
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No9388.3¢90.3¢$84+$1.82$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No5479¢87.5¢$48+$4.62+$5.90
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes4684¢81.5¢$37−$1.14$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes24211.1¢11.5¢$28+$0.86$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No2786¢86.5¢$23+$0.14$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes4541.2¢44.5¢$20+$1.50$0
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Yes2081¢90¢$18+$1.80$0
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No1787¢89¢$15+$0.33$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes10515¢13.5¢$14−$1.57$0
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1587.2¢92¢$14+$0.72$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes4034¢33.5¢$13−$0.20$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes2359¢52.5¢$12−$1.48$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes3516.8¢33¢$11+$5.58$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No1382¢81.5¢$11−$0.06$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes6115¢13¢$7.90−$1.22$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes5614.7¢10.9¢$6.10−$2.14$0
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?No692¢92.5¢$5.09+$0.03$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes665¢62.5¢$3.63−$0.14$0
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?No4211.9¢8.5¢$3.58−$1.46−$1.10
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes3022¢10.5¢$3.15−$3.45$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Yes449¢6.5¢$2.86−$1.10$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes3410¢5.5¢$1.88−$1.54$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?88.1¢8$6.6960%28
BUY NoWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?86.3¢7$6.4160%28
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?98.7¢23$2360%28
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81¢42$3460%28
SELL NoWill there be no Hormuz agreement?9.3¢33$3.0560%28
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82¢42$3460%28
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?84¢46$3860%28
SELL NoNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)85¢10$8.5060%28
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?97.5¢139$13560%28
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?97.5¢36$3560%28
BUY YesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?15¢105$1660%28
BUY NoWill there be no Hormuz agreement?11.9¢75$8.9460%28
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?85¢45$3860%28
BUY NoWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?91¢25$2260%28
BUY NoWill Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?91¢639$58160%28
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?86¢46$3960%28
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?91¢30$2760%28
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?92.5¢20$1960%28
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?94.1¢35$3360%28
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?94.9¢66$6360%28