| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 36.1k | 6.9¢ | 89¢ | $32.1k | +$29.6k | $0 | |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | No | 15.3k | 33.4¢ | 95.5¢ | $14.6k | +$9,482 | +$38 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 15.9k | 65.2¢ | 79.5¢ | $12.6k | +$2,278 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 21.7k | 18.5¢ | 52.1¢ | $11.3k | +$7,273 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 10.3k | 89.8¢ | 89.5¢ | $9,192 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | No | 9,609 | 92¢ | 92¢ | $8,840 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 10.8k | 67.7¢ | 79.5¢ | $8,581 | +$1,275 | −$474 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 10.5k | 77.6¢ | 81¢ | $8,480 | +$358 | $0 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 16.3k | 57.3¢ | 48.5¢ | $7,928 | −$1,444 | $0 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | No | 8,625 | 41.4¢ | 88.5¢ | $7,633 | +$4,060 | +$71 | |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 6,166 | 82.4¢ | 90¢ | $5,549 | +$470 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | 5,671 | 65.8¢ | 88.5¢ | $5,019 | +$1,287 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 5,893 | 66¢ | 81.5¢ | $4,803 | +$913 | +$228 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 4,387 | 55.9¢ | 98.9¢ | $4,336 | +$1,883 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,954 | 71.8¢ | 85.5¢ | $4,236 | +$681 | $0 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 3,157 | 82.6¢ | 91.5¢ | $2,889 | +$279 | $0 | |
| FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? | No | 2,861 | 95.4¢ | 96.8¢ | $2,768 | +$38 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 2,839 | 66.9¢ | 92¢ | $2,612 | +$712 | +$270 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 2,625 | 56¢ | 90¢ | $2,363 | +$893 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 7,614 | 35.6¢ | 31¢ | $2,360 | −$351 | $0 | |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 2,707 | 0¢ | 87.2¢ | $2,360 | +$2,360 | $0 | |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | No | 2,086 | 65.1¢ | 86¢ | $1,794 | +$435 | $0 | |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | No | 1,435 | 83.4¢ | 98.6¢ | $1,414 | +$217 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,042 | 20¢ | 22.5¢ | $1,134 | +$127 | $0 | |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | No | 1,106 | 74.7¢ | 90¢ | $995 | +$169 | $0 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No | 960 | 81.8¢ | 92.8¢ | $891 | +$106 | +$3.51 | |
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No | 873 | 83.7¢ | 95.2¢ | $831 | +$100 | $0 | |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 881 | 82.3¢ | 83¢ | $731 | +$6.12 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | No | 3,013 | 25¢ | 23¢ | $693 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 664 | 77.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $620 | +$105 | $0 | |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | No | 632 | 65.9¢ | 85.5¢ | $540 | +$124 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 708 | 53.2¢ | 64¢ | $453 | +$77 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 500 | 84¢ | 90.5¢ | $453 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? | No | 500 | 87¢ | 90.5¢ | $453 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Miri Regev be the next Israeli Minister of Interior? | No | 455 | 82.4¢ | 94.6¢ | $431 | +$56 | +$11 | |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? | No | 439 | 78.9¢ | 96¢ | $421 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 514 | 38.8¢ | 80.5¢ | $414 | +$214 | $0 | |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? | No | 398 | 68¢ | 75¢ | $298 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 537 | 41.1¢ | 47.5¢ | $255 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | No | 258 | 72.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $246 | +$59 | +$12 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 470 | 17¢ | 25.5¢ | $120 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | 96 | 65.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $90 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 200 | 38¢ | 29.5¢ | $59 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 55 | 40¢ | 86.5¢ | $48 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 147 | 57¢ | 25.5¢ | $38 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 55 | 47.1¢ | 63.5¢ | $35 | +$9.00 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 86¢ | 15.2¢ | $15 | −$71 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)? | Yes | 145 | 0.4¢ | 2.2¢ | $3.12 | +$2.54 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)? | Yes | 174 | 0.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $1.40 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | No | 17.2k | 35.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,107 | −$327 | |
| US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? | No | 15.6k | 66.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.3k | −$58 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | No | 14.2k | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7,036 | +$108 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | No | 10.6k | 64.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,863 | $0 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 9,685 | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,011 | $0 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 9,624 | 57.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,502 | −$91 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | No | 9,076 | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,002 | −$80 | |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | No | 8,290 | 53.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,453 | −$51 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 7,878 | 19.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,513 | −$14 | |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | No | 7,661 | 34.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,613 | $0 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,986 | 46.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,242 | +$18 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? | No | 6,842 | 44.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,063 | −$68 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 6,633 | 44¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,918 | $0 | |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | Yes | 6,359 | 88¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,596 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 6,201 | 55.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,446 | −$56 | |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | No | 4,517 | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$595 | +$6.00 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 4,485 | 66.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,992 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? | No | 3,224 | 40.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,319 | $0 | |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 2,934 | 74.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,180 | −$22 | |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | No | 2,676 | 74.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,993 | $0 | |
| Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? | No | 2,676 | 78.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,110 | $0 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | No | 1,880 | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$251 | $0 | |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? | No | 1,495 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,016 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026? | No | 1,460 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29 | $0 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | No | 1,271 | 61.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$781 | $0 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? | Yes | 1,258 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.23 | $0 | |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | No | 1,152 | 90.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,039 | $0 | |
| Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? | No | 1,019 | 92.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$945 | −$2.74 | |
| US bank failure by July 31? | No | 986 | 82.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$816 | −$7.03 | |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026? | No | 885 | 74.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$656 | $0 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | Yes | 783 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.78 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 771 | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.73 | $0 | |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | No | 639 | 85.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$547 | −$28 | |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | Yes | 619 | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | −$0.91 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 595 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.19 | $0 | |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | No | 559 | 92.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$519 | −$223 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 500 | 74¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$370 | $0 | |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 496 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026? | No | 317 | 93.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$298 | $0 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Yes | 300 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.20 | $0 | |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026? | No | 280 | 60.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$169 | $0 | |
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 224 | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.91 | $0 | |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 111 | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.75 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | 100 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | No | 55 | 88.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$49 | −$0.22 | |
| Will Trump praise Elon Musk in September? | No | 34 | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.22 | −$0.28 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | No | 24 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.84 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? | No | 6 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.10 | $0 | |