| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 27.1k | 71.5¢ | 71¢ | $19.3k | −$129 | −$321 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 13.2k | 84.4¢ | 79.5¢ | $10.5k | −$651 | −$270 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | No | 9,916 | 77.2¢ | 76.5¢ | $7,586 | −$69 | −$65 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 8,039 | 66.1¢ | 63.5¢ | $5,105 | −$212 | −$95 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,729 | 48¢ | 76.5¢ | $4,383 | +$1,634 | +$221 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 5,039 | 85.8¢ | 83.8¢ | $4,220 | −$104 | −$247 | |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 4,114 | 84.6¢ | 87.6¢ | $3,604 | +$125 | +$211 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 4,844 | 64.2¢ | 69.4¢ | $3,362 | +$250 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,113 | 87.1¢ | 85.5¢ | $2,662 | −$51 | $0 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,205 | 76.1¢ | 73.5¢ | $2,356 | −$85 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 3,000 | 62.1¢ | 77.5¢ | $2,325 | +$463 | +$104 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 2,693 | 82.7¢ | 83¢ | $2,235 | +$8.84 | +$116 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 3,660 | 68.3¢ | 57.5¢ | $2,105 | −$395 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,153 | 60.6¢ | 63.5¢ | $2,002 | +$91 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Yes | 2,240 | 81¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,826 | +$11 | +$18 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | No | 1,951 | 82¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,590 | −$9.75 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,818 | 71.7¢ | 78.5¢ | $1,427 | +$124 | +$431 | |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 1,435 | 86.3¢ | 93.1¢ | $1,336 | +$98 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,628 | 13.9¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,251 | +$54 | +$22 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | No | 1,680 | 42.8¢ | 69.5¢ | $1,168 | +$448 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 1,803 | 72.8¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,127 | −$186 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 1,392 | 57.5¢ | 76.5¢ | $1,065 | +$265 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 4,018 | 23.7¢ | 25.5¢ | $1,025 | +$72 | +$103 | |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 1,124 | 81¢ | 83.5¢ | $939 | +$28 | +$12 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 4,809 | 35.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $938 | −$783 | −$910 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,018 | 52.3¢ | 22.5¢ | $904 | −$1,196 | $0 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 1,165 | 70.2¢ | 71.5¢ | $833 | +$15 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 904 | 88.4¢ | 88.5¢ | $800 | +$0.39 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 2,192 | 34.6¢ | 34.5¢ | $756 | −$3.13 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 1,807 | 48.8¢ | 41.5¢ | $750 | −$133 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,982 | 19.8¢ | 14.5¢ | $722 | −$264 | −$85 | |
| Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | No | 790 | 61.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $715 | +$229 | +$358 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,197 | 27.2¢ | 56.5¢ | $676 | +$351 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 885 | 54.3¢ | 63.5¢ | $562 | +$81 | +$28 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 950 | 63.1¢ | 59¢ | $561 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 641 | 50.9¢ | 81.5¢ | $522 | +$196 | $0 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | Yes | 3,600 | 63.9¢ | 14.5¢ | $522 | −$1,779 | −$2,316 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 500 | 91.5¢ | 95.2¢ | $476 | +$19 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,319 | 44.9¢ | 36¢ | $475 | −$117 | $0 | |
| Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 519 | 89.7¢ | 91.1¢ | $473 | +$6.79 | +$12 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 497 | 80.5¢ | 92¢ | $457 | +$57 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | No | 500 | 83¢ | 87.5¢ | $438 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? | No | 510 | 66.7¢ | 84¢ | $428 | +$88 | $0 | |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | No | 536 | 80.2¢ | 77.5¢ | $416 | −$14 | +$7.01 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 1,066 | 42.4¢ | 37¢ | $394 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 2,081 | 42.3¢ | 18.5¢ | $385 | −$495 | −$687 | |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | No | 473 | 66.3¢ | 81¢ | $383 | +$69 | +$18 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | Yes | 1,333 | 29.2¢ | 28.5¢ | $380 | −$10.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 500 | 74¢ | 71.5¢ | $358 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 439 | 45.5¢ | 81¢ | $356 | +$156 | −$162 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 77¢ | 81.5¢ | $326 | +$18 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 400 | 74.1¢ | 80.6¢ | $322 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 382 | 68.9¢ | 83.5¢ | $319 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? | No | 347 | 58.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $310 | +$108 | +$88 | |
| California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? | No | 332 | 78.1¢ | 86.5¢ | $287 | +$28 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 387 | 73.1¢ | 73¢ | $283 | −$0.36 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 492 | 61¢ | 56¢ | $275 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | No | 361 | 83.1¢ | 73.5¢ | $265 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | Yes | 253 | 79¢ | 96.8¢ | $245 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 417 | 72¢ | 57.5¢ | $240 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 250 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $225 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? | Yes | 372 | 62¢ | 59.5¢ | $221 | −$9.30 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 500 | 40¢ | 42.5¢ | $213 | +$13 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,273 | 11¢ | 8.5¢ | $193 | −$57 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 212 | 82¢ | 89.5¢ | $190 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 200 | 87¢ | 94.5¢ | $189 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 234 | 83.1¢ | 77.5¢ | $182 | −$13 | −$4.81 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | 1,550 | 28.4¢ | 11.5¢ | $178 | −$262 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 411 | 36.5¢ | 42.5¢ | $175 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 300 | 62¢ | 57.8¢ | $173 | −$13 | +$89 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 400 | 54¢ | 41.5¢ | $166 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 1,741 | 13¢ | 9.5¢ | $165 | −$61 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 318 | 39.3¢ | 51.6¢ | $164 | +$39 | −$4.93 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 1,140 | 58.3¢ | 14.1¢ | $161 | −$504 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 39¢ | 15.5¢ | $155 | −$235 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 600 | 42¢ | 25.5¢ | $153 | −$99 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 400 | 39¢ | 37.5¢ | $150 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | Yes | 389 | 50.2¢ | 35.5¢ | $138 | −$57 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,616 | 21.1¢ | 8.5¢ | $137 | −$204 | $0 | |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 299 | 43.4¢ | 45.5¢ | $136 | +$6.27 | +$0.34 | |
| Will Hayden Panettiere be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | No | 149 | 66¢ | 81¢ | $120 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | Yes | 1,011 | 8.4¢ | 11.5¢ | $116 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | Yes | 219 | 42.1¢ | 52.5¢ | $115 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? | No | 134 | 74.7¢ | 84¢ | $113 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | Yes | 150 | 59¢ | 73.5¢ | $110 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 23¢ | 19¢ | $95 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? | Yes | 150 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $90 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,989 | 5.5¢ | 1.5¢ | $87 | −$242 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 3,877 | 7.8¢ | 2¢ | $78 | −$226 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 20¢ | 15.5¢ | $78 | −$23 | +$3.33 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 500 | 68¢ | 15.5¢ | $77 | −$262 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | No | 126 | 61¢ | 60.5¢ | $76 | −$0.63 | $0 | |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 300 | 16.9¢ | 24.1¢ | $72 | +$21 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 556 | 22.1¢ | 11.5¢ | $64 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? | No | 70 | 87.6¢ | 89.5¢ | $63 | +$1.35 | $0 | |
| Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | Yes | 150 | 27.2¢ | 39.1¢ | $59 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 58 | 71¢ | 98.4¢ | $58 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 4,907 | 2.6¢ | 1.2¢ | $56 | −$73 | $0 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 185 | 53.1¢ | 30.5¢ | $56 | −$42 | −$111 | |
| Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35? | Yes | 92 | 45¢ | 56.5¢ | $52 | +$11 | $0 | |
