PnL all-time−$4,687vol $174k
PnL 30d−$7,140gains $0 · losses $5,166
PnL 7d−$948win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate58.2%adj 56.0% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$3,273cash n/a
Positions7 / 62open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 17h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$6,655below peak −$9,525Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.2% · shrunk toward 50%40
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable60
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,485Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yesclosed+$864Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yesclosed+$553Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yesclosed+$431Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yesclosed+$171
Worst markets
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$4,375Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,964Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,416Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed−$786Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yesclosed−$645
Open positions · 7
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 6,149 | 65.1¢ | 25.5¢ | $1,568 | −$2,432 | −$1,943 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 2,955 | 44¢ | 38.5¢ | $1,138 | −$162 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 692 | 86.7¢ | 82¢ | $568 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | Yes | 83 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.76 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | Yes | 80 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.75 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | Yes | 37 | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$20 | −$0.46 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | Yes | 16 | 61.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.19 |
Recent trades
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