PnL all-time−$1,144vol $314k
PnL 30d−$17gains $9.74 · losses $6.05
PnL 7d+$3.86win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate66.6%adj 65.9% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$538cash n/a
Positions11 / 468open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 3h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$1,124below peak −$1,321Oct 11
SharpScore inputs
41/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 66.6% · shrunk toward 50%65
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable89
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? · Noclosed+$196Epstein client list released in 2025? · Noclosed+$134Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? · Yesclosed+$113Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on January 2, 2026? · Yesclosed+$95Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noclosed+$77
Worst markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? · Yesclosed−$231Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · Yesclosed−$208Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 23, 2026? · Yesclosed−$153Maduro out by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$116Maduro out by January 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$110
Open positions · 11
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? | No | 211 | 94.9¢ | 96.5¢ | $203 | +$3.28 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 95 | 84.1¢ | 97¢ | $92 | +$12 | −$1.10 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 440 | 8.5¢ | 17.8¢ | $78 | +$41 | +$17 | |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 18.4k | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $64 | −$86 | +$59 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 35 | 72¢ | 93.5¢ | $32 | +$7.47 | +$1.62 | |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | No | 27 | 93.2¢ | 97.6¢ | $26 | +$1.17 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 66 | 52.8¢ | 37.5¢ | $25 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 129 | 7.8¢ | 6.4¢ | $8.17 | −$1.83 | −$2.98 | |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? | Yes | 87 | 5.8¢ | 5.8¢ | $4.98 | −$0.02 | $0 | |
| Will Tucker Carlson be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? | Yes | 137 | 3.7¢ | 2.2¢ | $2.94 | −$2.06 | $0 | |
| Will LASK Linz win on 2026-09-08? | Yes | 48 | 21¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.40 |
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