sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Rank #1,630

iutwpfal

0xb89…1c44@OxyPredicts
PnL 50k+PnL 10k+OtherPoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$90.1kvol $4.41M
PnL 30d+$15.8kgains $16.8k · losses $5,625
PnL 7d+$5,171win rate 7d 63.2%
Win rate57.6%adj 57.3% · 30d 60.2%
Open value$25.4kcash n/a
Positions61 / 1,158open / all-time
Max drawdown−21.1%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 17h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$99.3kbelow peak −$5,959Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale71
Adjusted win rateraw 57.6% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity79

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? · Noclosed+$3,777Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen+$3,526Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? · Noclosed+$3,486Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? · Noclosed+$3,132Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Noclosed+$3,096

Worst markets

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yesopen−$3,526Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yesclosed−$3,108Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,456Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,361Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? · Yesclosed−$1,951

Open positions · 61

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No11.0k50¢82.1¢$9,026+$3,526$0
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No2,69282.4¢88¢$2,369+$150−$19
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes11.0k50¢18¢$1,975−$3,526$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes2,00071¢69.4¢$1,388−$32$0
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes1,2205.7¢89¢$1,086+$1,016$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1,79545.4¢51¢$916+$101$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No1,30440.5¢67.5¢$881+$352+$278
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Yes83584.4¢90¢$751+$47+$98
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No66681.4¢85¢$567+$24$0
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Yes98111.3¢51.5¢$505+$394$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?No54073.7¢91.5¢$494+$96+$15
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?No53133.9¢83.5¢$443+$263+$158
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No46474.4¢93.8¢$435+$90−$1,151
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No66361.4¢60¢$398−$9.88+$306
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No1,90911.4¢20.8¢$397+$180+$2,645
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes61936.4¢64¢$396+$171+$11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No57527.1¢59.4¢$341+$185+$463
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No62113.4¢48.2¢$299+$216+$582
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?No29468.3¢87.5¢$257+$56+$99
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?No22682.3¢99¢$224+$38+$57
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No31557.4¢70.5¢$222+$41−$149
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No22866¢79.5¢$181+$31−$0.40
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No24053.3¢62.5¢$150+$22$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes5,2291.8¢2.9¢$149+$54$0
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Yes16074.4¢87¢$139+$20$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?No24233.3¢54¢$131+$50+$13
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No40317¢30.4¢$122+$54$0
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?Yes9767.6¢12.1¢$118+$44$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?No10866.3¢94.5¢$102+$30+$39
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Yes51315.5¢19.5¢$100+$21+$112
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes37019¢26¢$96+$26$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,2994.5¢6.5¢$84+$25$0
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?No24431.7¢33.5¢$82+$4.30$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0005.9¢7.4¢$74+$15$0
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?Yes6770¢10.5¢$71+$71$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No9026.1¢56.5¢$51+$27+$0.23
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes4,0221¢1.3¢$50+$10$0
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No30419.9¢16.5¢$50−$10+$3.60
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes7,6320.9¢0.7¢$50−$17$0
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Yes8552.9¢53¢$45+$0.10$0
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2,1202.1¢1.6¢$33−$11$0
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?No3474.7¢97.5¢$33+$7.63$0
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes11.7k0.3¢0.3¢$29−$5.50$0
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes1,88539.3¢1.1¢$20−$720+$208
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes18.9k0.1¢0.1¢$19+$0.22$0
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes1928.6¢9.3¢$18+$1.40$0
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes1576.8¢77.5¢$12+$0.10$0
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1,7020.2¢0.6¢$10+$6.81$0
Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes1,3181.8¢0.5¢$5.93−$17−$12
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?No574.2¢92.9¢$5.02+$1.01+$90
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes4031¢11.5¢$4.60−$7.80$0
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes775.2¢57.5¢$4.03−$1.24$0
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes1128¢28¢$3.11$0$0
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes639¢46.5¢$2.64+$0.43+$394
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?No534.1¢28¢$1.27−$0.28+$1,099
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes525¢18.5¢$0.93−$0.33$0
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes244.5¢50¢$0.90+$0.10+$1,327
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes264¢3.2¢$0.82−$0.22$0
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Yes520¢10.5¢$0.53−$0.47$0
Will Christopher Wood win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes1211.7¢0.3¢$0.30−$1.78−$8.71
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes440.7¢0.7¢$0.28−$0.02$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?64¢45$2958%69
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?60.6¢226$13758%69
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?50.5¢61$3158%69
BUY NoWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?39.9¢5$2.0058%69
BUY YesWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?74.4¢160$11958%69
BUY YesWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?39.5¢281$11158%69
BUY YesWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?84.4¢1,535$1,29658%69
BUY YesWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?15.5¢843$13158%69
BUY YesWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?34.4¢458$15858%69
BUY YesWill SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.3¢11.7k$3558%69
BUY YesWill SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?1¢4,022$4058%69
BUY YesWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?2.1¢2,120$4458%69
SELL YesWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?42¢3,612$1,51758%69
BUY YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.9¢7,632$6758%69
BUY YesWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?1.8¢5,229$9558%69
BUY YesWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.1¢8,914$8.9158%69
BUY YesWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.2¢1,702$3.4058%69
BUY NoWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?86.1¢1,987$1,71258%69
SELL NoWill the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?35¢175$6158%69
BUY YesWill the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?52.9¢85$4558%69