sharpside
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Traders/Rank #59

denizz

0xbaa…2c73@denizz_poly
WhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2.33Mvol $98.8M
PnL 30d−$2,095gains $18.3k · losses $0
PnL 7d+$3,221win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate59.0%adj 58.7% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$1.18Mcash n/a
Positions49 / 995open / all-time
Max drawdown−27.8%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 13d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2.46Mbelow peak −$164kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

66/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale91
Adjusted win rateraw 59.0% · shrunk toward 50%47
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d53
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity72

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$807kIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · Yesclosed+$383kUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · Yesclosed+$318kIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · Yesclosed+$285kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Yesclosed+$251k

Worst markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$155kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? · Yesclosed−$100k Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yesclosed−$90.0kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yesclosed−$73.5kUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? · Noclosed−$62.4k

Open positions · 49

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No492k76.3¢94.5¢$465k+$89.5k+$2,889
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No370k73.6¢84.5¢$313k+$40.4k+$11.9k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No161k85¢96.2¢$155k+$18.0k+$1,040
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No64.3k76.4¢94.5¢$60.8k+$11.7k+$3,699
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes33.4k66.2¢83¢$27.7k+$5,616+$0.52
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes33.6k51.2¢71.3¢$24.0k+$6,751+$9,569
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No16.1k74.8¢96.4¢$15.5k+$3,489+$327
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No14.9k82.1¢92.5¢$13.8k+$1,557+$6,643
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No15.1k41.1¢80¢$12.1k+$5,876+$1,196
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes52.2k55.1¢19.5¢$10.2k−$18.6k−$3,427
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes11.2k65.1¢87.6¢$9,850+$2,528+$7,910
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes56.2k30.5¢14.5¢$8,145−$9,016$0
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No8,36581.4¢94.4¢$7,892+$1,081$0
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No6,11583.9¢95.5¢$5,839+$712+$0.25
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?No5,55967.1¢90.5¢$5,031+$1,300+$1,219
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No5,09272.7¢97.3¢$4,952+$1,252$0
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No4,99477.6¢93.7¢$4,680+$804+$86
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes43.3k26.3¢10.5¢$4,542−$6,846−$69
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?No4,44451.1¢87¢$3,867+$1,596−$1,428
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?No3,92881.6¢95.5¢$3,751+$548+$1.89
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No3,58983.5¢89.1¢$3,196+$200−$257
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?No3,08980.6¢96.4¢$2,978+$488$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Yes18.0k43.3¢11.5¢$2,068−$5,723−$193
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes15.2k57.6¢11.5¢$1,753−$7,026+$940
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes11.2k31¢12.5¢$1,405−$2,082$0
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No1,33176.2¢95.5¢$1,271+$257$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes4,44436¢25.5¢$1,133−$467−$915
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?No1,10184¢91.5¢$1,008+$83$0
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?No97182¢94.4¢$917+$120$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes15.6k37.1¢5.5¢$858−$4,923−$396
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes7,43220.3¢10.5¢$780−$727+$1.70
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes3,80429.7¢18¢$685−$444$0
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Yes4,62459.1¢14¢$647−$2,083−$91
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?No54168¢92.5¢$500+$133$0
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes3,61627.9¢13.5¢$488−$522$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes2,29425.9¢16¢$367−$227+$198
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Yes20516¢9.5¢$19−$13+$1,047
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes54.1k39.4¢0¢$0−$21.3k−$5,092
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Yes22.8k36.2¢0¢$0−$8,262+$6,423
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes18.2k24.5¢0¢$0−$4,460+$2,698
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Yes8,45422.5¢0¢$0−$1,905−$441
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes7,0086.5¢0¢$0−$455$0
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?Yes6,9742.1¢0¢$0−$145+$13
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Yes3,78338.8¢0¢$0−$1,469+$25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes3,33311¢0¢$0−$367$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes3,27953.2¢0¢$0−$1,745$0
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No2,16855.9¢0¢$0−$1,213−$63
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes2614.3¢0¢$0−$11−$5,738
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes22511¢0¢$0−$25+$530

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesForeign intervention in Gaza by September 30?1.2¢34$0.4159%66
SELL YesWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?17¢1,509$25759%66
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?27¢394$10659%66
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?16¢94$1559%66
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?24¢27$6.4359%66
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?4.4¢1,110$4959%66
BUY YesIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?12.4¢2,778$34459%66
SELL NoIran leadership change by December 31?85¢216$18459%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?14.6¢431$6359%66
SELL YesWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?84¢60$5059%66
SELL YesWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?84.1¢201$16959%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?24¢260$6259%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?33¢74$2459%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?31¢1,271$39459%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?29¢513$14959%66
BUY YesWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?19.6¢1,156$22659%66
SELL NoIran leadership change by December 31?85¢2,205$1,87459%66
BUY YesWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?9.5¢1,015$9759%66
SELL YesUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?4¢1,531$6159%66
SELL YesUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?4¢5,866$23559%66