Traders/Rank #4,369

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1y+PoliticsSportCultureOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$4,238vol $593k

PnL 30d−$12gains $0 · losses $0

PnL 7d+$23win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate44.6%adj 44.9% · 30d 0.0%

Open value$5,286cash n/a

Positions260 / 760open / all-time

Max drawdown−57.1%of equity peak

Account age1.9ylast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$4,843below peak −$2,741Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

40/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale52

Adjusted win rateraw 44.6% · shrunk toward 50%12

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity43

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Yesclosed+$4,159 Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? · Yesopen+$1,539 Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Noclosed+$1,206 Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? · Yesclosed+$940 World Chess Championship 2024 Winner · Gukeshclosed+$756

Worst markets

Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? · Noclosed−$1,063 TikTok sale announced before April? · Yesclosed−$804 World Chess Championship 2024 Winner · Dingclosed−$797 Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration? · Noclosed−$630 Will someone else be inaugurated? · Yesclosed−$614

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	1,000	85¢	95.4¢	$954	+$104	$0	3mo
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	800	52¢	100¢	$800	+$384	$0	ended
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	500	10¢	100¢	$500	+$450	$0	ended
Will Alireza Firouzja qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	500	99.8¢	100¢	$500	+$1.00	$0	ended
Will Hans Niemann qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	498	99.8¢	100¢	$498	+$1.00	$0	ended
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	22.2¢	$222	+$214	$0	25mo
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?	Yes	200	70¢	100¢	$200	+$60	$0	ended
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?	No	150	68¢	100¢	$150	+$48	$0	ended
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	13.1¢	$131	+$123	$0	25mo
Will Vladimir Fedoseev qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	130	99.1¢	100¢	$130	+$1.19	$0	ended
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	10.4¢	$104	+$96	$0	25mo
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	100	52.5¢	100¢	$100	+$48	+$81	ended
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	No	100	57¢	100¢	$100	+$43	$0	ended
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	99	22.3¢	100¢	$99	+$77	−$0.80	ended
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	9¢	$91	+$83	$0	25mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	7.9¢	$79	+$71	$0	25mo
Will Arjun Erigaisi qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	64	99.8¢	100¢	$64	+$0.13	$0	ended
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?	No	52	96.6¢	100¢	$52	+$1.77	$0	ended
Verstappen vs. Russell	Verstappen	50	62¢	100¢	$50	+$19	$0	ended
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?	Yes	50	23¢	100¢	$50	+$38	$0	ended
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	4.6¢	$46	+$38	$0	25mo
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	3.1¢	$31	+$23	$0	25mo
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	2.8¢	$28	+$20	$0	25mo
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	2.3¢	$23	+$15	$0	25mo
Will NVIDIA dip to $172 in November?	Yes	20	15¢	100¢	$20	+$17	$0	ended
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?	Yes	20	85¢	100¢	$20	+$3.00	$0	ended
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1.7¢	$17	+$8.74	$0	25mo
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1.7¢	$17	+$8.74	$0	25mo
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1.4¢	$14	+$5.75	$0	25mo
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1.4¢	$14	+$5.75	$0	25mo
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1.3¢	$13	+$4.75	$0	25mo
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	12	78¢	100¢	$12	+$2.66	$0	ended
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	No	10	97.4¢	100¢	$10	+$0.26	+$17	ended
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1¢	$10	+$2.25	$0	25mo
Will no leader be out in 2025?	No	10	87¢	100¢	$10	+$1.30	$0	ended
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	10	98.8¢	100¢	$10	+$0.12	$0	ended
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1¢	$9.50	+$1.75	$0	25mo
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	1¢	$9.50	+$1.75	$0	25mo
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.9¢	$8.50	+$0.74	$0	25mo
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?	Yes	8	80¢	100¢	$7.50	+$1.50	$0	ended
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.7¢	$6.50	−$1.25	$0	25mo
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	6	99.8¢	100¢	$6.27	+$0.01	$0	ended
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Yes	6	37¢	100¢	$6.01	+$3.79	+$1,536	ended
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.5¢	$5.50	−$2.25	$0	25mo
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.5¢	$5.50	−$2.25	$0	25mo
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.5¢	$5.50	−$2.25	$0	25mo
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.5¢	$5.50	−$2.25	$0	25mo
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	5	5.6¢	100¢	$5.00	+$4.72	$0	ended
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.5¢	$4.50	−$3.25	$0	25mo
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.4¢	$3.50	−$4.25	$0	25mo
Will Walmart say "Dividend" during earnings call?	Yes	3	24¢	100¢	$3.29	+$2.50	$0	ended
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?	No	2	85¢	100¢	$2.35	+$0.35	$0	ended
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?	Yes	2	94¢	100¢	$2.13	+$0.13	$0	ended
Solana ETF approved by July 31?	Yes	2	55¢	100¢	$1.82	+$0.82	$0	ended
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?	Yes	2	62.9¢	100¢	$1.59	+$0.59	$0	ended
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.2¢	$1.50	−$6.25	$0	25mo
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	100	1.8¢	1.4¢	$1.35	−$0.45	$0	25mo
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?	Yes	1	89¢	100¢	$1.12	+$0.12	$0	ended
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2,222	0.8¢	0.1¢	$1.11	−$18	$0	25mo
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	15	14¢	4.8¢	$0.72	−$1.38	$0	3mo
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,000	0.8¢	0.1¢	$0.50	−$7.25	$0	25mo
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	100	1.2¢	0.2¢	$0.15	−$1.05	$0	25mo
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	No	34.4k	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$76	$0	ended
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	Yes	31.0k	0.7¢	0¢	$0	−$226	$0	ended
Will Hikaru Nakamura qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	No	22.3k	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$33	$0	ended
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	10.0k	0.5¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	ended
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	5,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$5.00	−$0.25	ended
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	Yes	2,765	2.8¢	0¢	$0	−$78	+$14	ended
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?	Yes	2,000	17¢	0¢	$0	−$340	$0	ended
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?	Yes	2,000	0.3¢	0¢	$0	−$6.00	$0	ended
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	1,763	0.6¢	0¢	$0	−$11	+$3.10	ended
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	1,575	0.9¢	0¢	$0	−$13	−$0.67	ended
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	1,520	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$2.04	$0	ended
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	1,500	3¢	0¢	$0	−$45	$0	ended
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	Yes	1,498	3.1¢	0¢	$0	−$46	+$15	ended

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
3mo ago	BUY	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	30.1¢	333	$100	45%	40
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	22¢	36	$8.00	45%	40
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	12¢	208	$25	45%	40
3mo ago	BUY No	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	0.5¢	10.0k	$50	45%	40
3mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	92¢	11	$10	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	60¢	167	$100	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	7.3¢	547	$40	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	13.3¢	753	$100	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	58.7¢	341	$200	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	62¢	16	$10	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	18¢	28	$5.00	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	86¢	12	$10	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	33.5¢	45	$15	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	13¢	54	$7.00	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	1¢	512	$5.00	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	24¢	42	$10	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	0.6¢	833	$5.00	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	0.4¢	750	$3.00	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	1.1¢	1,273	$14	45%	40
4mo ago	BUY Yes	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	0.1¢	5,000	$5.00	45%	40