Traders/Rank #12,855

flexibleagedbeef

0xbbc…b08b

<14d old<30d oldPoliticsOther

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$0.76vol $121k

PnL 30d−$831gains $0.82 · losses $0.06

PnL 7d−$832win rate 7d 0.0%

Win rate50.0%adj 50.0% · 30d 50.0%

Open value$88.8kcash n/a

Positions77 / 79open / all-time

Max drawdown−57.8%of equity peak

Account age9dlast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$577below peak −$578Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

20/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0

Adjusted win rateraw 50.0% · shrunk toward 50%25

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable63

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity42

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? · Noopen+$190 Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Noopen+$52 Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Noopen+$51 Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%? · Noopen+$49 Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Noopen+$47

Worst markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? · Noopen−$259 Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · Noopen−$121 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Noopen−$120 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Noopen−$113 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? · Noopen−$94

Open positions · 77

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	10.7k	84.1¢	83.5¢	$8,929	−$68	$0	3mo
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	9,064	78¢	77.5¢	$7,025	−$45	$0	55d 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	5,760	84.1¢	82.5¢	$4,752	−$94	$0	17d 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	6,802	69.3¢	67.5¢	$4,591	−$120	$0	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	5,426	71.3¢	70.5¢	$3,825	−$46	$0	20d 19h
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	No	7,332	47.9¢	47.5¢	$3,483	−$31	$0	3mo
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	2,908	82.3¢	78.5¢	$2,281	−$113	$0	3mo
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	3,017	78.6¢	70¢	$2,112	−$259	$0	11d 19h
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	2,271	89.1¢	89.5¢	$2,032	+$9.81	$0	13d 19h
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	2,340	84.6¢	85.5¢	$2,001	+$22	$0	3mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	2,230	88¢	87.5¢	$1,951	−$11	$0	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	No	2,532	78.7¢	75.5¢	$1,912	−$82	$0	20d 19h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	2,033	86¢	85.5¢	$1,738	−$10	$0	3mo
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	4,496	38.2¢	35.5¢	$1,596	−$121	$0	3mo
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	2,012	79.7¢	78.5¢	$1,579	−$23	$0	20d 19h
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	No	2,222	67.2¢	69.5¢	$1,544	+$51	$0	3mo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	1,719	86¢	85.5¢	$1,470	−$8.60	$0	3mo
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	No	1,770	71.8¢	82.5¢	$1,460	+$190	$0	3mo
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	1,733	82.4¢	81.5¢	$1,412	−$15	$0	3mo
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	1,783	81.8¢	79¢	$1,409	−$49	$0	55d 19h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	No	1,951	70.2¢	72¢	$1,405	+$35	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	1,765	70¢	70.5¢	$1,244	+$8.82	$0	20d 19h
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	1,422	87.2¢	86.5¢	$1,230	−$9.95	$0	3mo
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	1,362	90¢	89.5¢	$1,219	−$6.81	$0	3mo
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	No	1,715	72¢	71¢	$1,218	−$17	$0	20d 19h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?	No	1,622	73.8¢	74¢	$1,200	+$3.38	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	1,496	79¢	79.5¢	$1,189	+$7.48	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	1,632	74.9¢	72¢	$1,175	−$48	$0	20d 19h
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	1,295	88.6¢	88.5¢	$1,146	−$1.43	$0	3mo
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	1,389	80.5¢	78.5¢	$1,090	−$28	$0	17d 19h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	No	1,308	79.5¢	78.5¢	$1,027	−$13	$0	3mo
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	1,341	73¢	76.5¢	$1,026	+$47	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	1,301	75.5¢	77.5¢	$1,008	+$26	$0	20d 19h
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	1,158	84.9¢	82.2¢	$951	−$32	$0	13d 19h
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	1,792	55¢	50.5¢	$905	−$81	$0	45d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	No	1,075	79.4¢	79¢	$849	−$4.32	$0	20d 19h
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	No	993	78.8¢	79¢	$784	+$1.59	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	No	999	74¢	77.5¢	$774	+$35	$0	20d 19h
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?	No	831	88.4¢	91.5¢	$760	+$25	$0	20d 19h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?	No	960	76.7¢	77¢	$739	+$2.84	$0	20d 19h
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	877	85.8¢	83.5¢	$732	−$21	$0	6mo
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	1,045	66.2¢	65¢	$679	−$13	$0	19h 52m
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	798	82.5¢	84.2¢	$671	+$13	$0	20d 19h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	664	80.7¢	84.5¢	$561	+$25	$0	3mo
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	679	79.6¢	80.5¢	$547	+$6.33	$0	16d 19h
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	650	82.8¢	82.8¢	$538	$0	$0	45d 19h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	631	83.5¢	82¢	$517	−$9.28	$0	3mo
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	657	75.5¢	76.5¢	$503	+$6.59	$0	3mo
Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?	No	567	87.5¢	88.5¢	$502	+$5.68	$0	20d 19h
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	508	88.7¢	89.6¢	$455	+$4.48	$0	3mo
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	No	550	78¢	79.5¢	$437	+$8.25	$0	3mo
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	623	56.7¢	61.5¢	$383	+$30	$0	3mo
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	423	82.4¢	84¢	$355	+$6.89	$0	3mo
Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	394	90¢	89.5¢	$353	−$1.97	$0	6mo
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	2,160	12.1¢	14.5¢	$313	+$52	$0	3mo
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	404	74.9¢	73.5¢	$297	−$5.66	$0	13d 19h
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	No	306	88.5¢	90.5¢	$277	+$6.08	$0	3mo
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	No	296	88.3¢	90.5¢	$268	+$6.50	$0	3mo
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	No	308	69.2¢	85¢	$262	+$49	$0	3mo
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	306	84¢	83.5¢	$256	−$1.53	$0	3mo
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?	No	277	88.7¢	91.5¢	$253	+$7.78	$0	20d 19h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?	No	189	85.2¢	84.5¢	$160	−$1.27	$0	3mo
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?	No	204	76.7¢	76.5¢	$156	−$0.33	$0	4mo
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?	No	179	85¢	85¢	$152	$0	$0	3mo
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	No	198	72.5¢	75.9¢	$151	+$6.81	$0	45d 19h
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?	No	183	73.1¢	75¢	$137	+$3.42	$0	3mo
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	318	46.6¢	42.3¢	$134	−$14	$0	3mo
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	159	80.2¢	79.5¢	$126	−$1.15	$0	3mo
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	No	100	88¢	94¢	$94	+$6.00	$0	6mo
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	98	90¢	89.5¢	$88	−$0.49	$0	3mo
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	No	97	88¢	85.5¢	$83	−$2.42	$0	3mo
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	100	77¢	77.5¢	$78	+$0.50	$0	3mo
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	No	63	90¢	88.5¢	$56	−$0.94	$0	3mo
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	68	80.9¢	77.5¢	$53	−$2.28	$0	20d 19h
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	62	86¢	85¢	$53	−$0.62	$0	3mo
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	No	29	87¢	87.5¢	$25	+$0.14	$0	3mo
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?	No	17	89.6¢	88¢	$15	−$0.27	$0	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	86¢	6	$5.16	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	42¢	28	$12	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	84.9¢	18	$15	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	75¢	24	$18	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	88¢	16	$14	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	81¢	5	$4.05	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	42¢	13	$5.46	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	75¢	15	$11	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	84.9¢	12	$10	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	85.4¢	10	$8.54	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	86¢	19	$16	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	72¢	44	$32	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	72¢	25	$18	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	51¢	17	$8.67	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	81¢	7	$5.67	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	42¢	22	$9.24	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	84.9¢	18	$15	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	75¢	26	$20	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	85.5¢	23	$20	50%	20
1d ago	BUY No	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	86¢	22	$19	50%	20