| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 40.4k | 34.8¢ | 88.5¢ | $35.7k | +$21.7k | +$995 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 10.4k | 67.1¢ | 93.5¢ | $9,688 | +$2,736 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 7,823 | 45.4¢ | 94.5¢ | $7,393 | +$3,838 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 8,061 | 41.3¢ | 84¢ | $6,772 | +$3,445 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 7,157 | 8.5¢ | 79.5¢ | $5,690 | +$5,084 | +$1,313 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 14.6k | 15.5¢ | 15.5¢ | $2,263 | −$0.82 | +$6,225 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 12.1k | 56.2¢ | 12.5¢ | $1,511 | −$5,276 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,012 | 37¢ | 42.5¢ | $855 | +$111 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 6,071 | 25.2¢ | 10.5¢ | $637 | −$892 | $0 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 5,000 | 28.7¢ | 5.5¢ | $275 | −$1,163 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 1,179 | 18¢ | 15.5¢ | $183 | −$29 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 36.2¢ | 14.5¢ | $145 | −$217 | $0 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | 107 | 31.3¢ | 94.4¢ | $101 | +$68 | +$2,220 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 520 | 46.9¢ | 18.5¢ | $96 | −$148 | +$6.73 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 6.6¢ | 3.3¢ | $66 | −$65 | $0 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | 361 | 12.5¢ | 11¢ | $40 | −$5.73 | $0 | |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | Yes | 73 | 63.9¢ | 14¢ | $10 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 301k | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,904 | −$57 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 248k | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,844 | +$2,246 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 235k | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$21.5k | +$5,222 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Yes | 184k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,755 | +$7,871 | |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | No | 138k | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.5k | −$1,556 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | No | 115k | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18.5k | −$1,143 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | Yes | 97.5k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,939 | +$6.96 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Yes | 95.3k | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,460 | −$52 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 92.8k | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11.3k | +$13.1k | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Yes | 92.7k | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9,294 | +$3,734 | |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Yes | 90.7k | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,321 | $0 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | 84.6k | 28.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24.0k | −$18.4k | |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | No | 83.5k | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,738 | −$55 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | No | 80.3k | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,480 | +$8,403 | |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Yes | 73.6k | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,806 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | Yes | 69.8k | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,165 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | Yes | 62.2k | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,180 | $0 | |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | No | 57.8k | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,598 | +$7,206 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | No | 56.8k | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,116 | +$1,916 | |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Yes | 51.8k | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,294 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | Yes | 51.0k | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,651 | −$3,626 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | No | 49.0k | 25.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12.4k | +$5,850 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | No | 44.0k | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,022 | +$196 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | Yes | 43.6k | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,001 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 42.7k | 11.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,929 | +$1,114 | |
| Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? | Yes | 41.1k | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,641 | −$185 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | No | 40.1k | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,201 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 39.4k | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,198 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 38.3k | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,316 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | Yes | 38.0k | 22.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,709 | +$1,593 | |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 38.0k | 10.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,018 | +$54 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | No | 37.9k | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13.2k | −$2,372 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Yes | 34.4k | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$962 | +$1.48 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | Yes | 33.7k | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,805 | $0 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Yes | 31.7k | 29.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9,355 | +$6,592 | |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | No | 30.1k | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$520 | $0 | |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | No | 29.1k | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$778 | +$7,156 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 29.1k | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,209 | +$6,428 | |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 28.0k | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,668 | +$13 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14? | Yes | 27.9k | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,125 | $0 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 27.6k | 20.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,552 | +$551 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 26.6k | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,174 | +$4,060 | |
| Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing? | Yes | 26.0k | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | −$1.16 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 25.6k | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6,605 | +$8,498 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 24.4k | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,754 | −$97 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | No | 23.6k | 37.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8,925 | +$15 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? | No | 21.3k | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$308 | −$2.33 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | No | 20.0k | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,715 | $0 | |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | Yes | 19.4k | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,473 | $0 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 18.9k | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,121 | +$13.3k | |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | Yes | 18.6k | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9,275 | +$257 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 18.2k | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,268 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | No | 18.2k | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$508 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 18.2k | 18.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,418 | +$559 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 17.9k | 21¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,769 | +$9,046 | |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 17.9k | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$990 | $0 | |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 17.6k | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$548 | −$21 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | Yes | 16.6k | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$765 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15.9k | 25.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,074 | −$152 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | No | 15.8k | 36.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5,820 | +$1,280 | |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 15.7k | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$758 | $0 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Yes | 15.4k | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$667 | $0 | |
| Chirayu Rana sued? | No | 15.0k | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | $0 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | Yes | 14.9k | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$335 | −$144 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Yes | 14.4k | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,193 | −$260 | |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? | Yes | 14.2k | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$725 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? | Yes | 13.6k | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$136 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? | No | 13.5k | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$909 | −$34 | |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | No | 13.3k | 36¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,800 | +$9,214 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 12.9k | 24.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,120 | +$8,352 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | Yes | 12.5k | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,082 | +$1.09 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | No | 12.4k | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,196 | +$509 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | Yes | 11.6k | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$487 | +$753 | |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? | No | 11.2k | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,497 | +$379 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | Yes | 11.2k | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$170 | $0 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Yes | 10.2k | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,515 | +$13.5k | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$93 | −$106 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026? | No | 9,959 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$96 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9,867 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | −$1.97 | |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9,773 | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,942 | $0 | |
| Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? | Yes | 9,749 | 47.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,634 | +$110 | |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 9,106 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$111 | +$888 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | No | 8,457 | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$868 | +$298 | |