sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,023

2Sherlock

0xbd8…006d
WR 70+WR 60+OtherPoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$3,513vol $112k
PnL 30d+$2,614gains $2,922 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$733win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate79.4%adj 68.5% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$7,459cash n/a
Positions25 / 59open / all-time
Max drawdown−19.6%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$3,571below peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

51/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale51
Adjusted win rateraw 79.4% · shrunk toward 50%71
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable59
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity80

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,135EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Noclosed+$2,0370 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? · Yesclosed+$517Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$485Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? · Yesclosed+$271

Worst markets

Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? · Yesclosed−$864Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$347Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m? · Noopen−$287Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$215Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$198

Open positions · 25

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Yes1,66099.6¢99.4¢$1,650−$2.62$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?No1,54399.7¢99.8¢$1,540+$1.54$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes1,04492.8¢92.6¢$967−$2.06$0
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes72687.6¢81.2¢$589−$47$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1,00063¢57.5¢$575−$55$0
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No56189.8¢93.8¢$526+$22$0
Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?Yes49671¢82.5¢$409+$57$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?No80034.4¢42¢$336+$61$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes28588.4¢89.5¢$255+$3.20$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?No80015¢29.5¢$236+$116$0
Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?Yes32950.1¢36.5¢$120−$45$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No20032¢39.5¢$79+$15$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No49613.9¢13¢$64−$4.64$0
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?Yes10040¢57¢$57+$17$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Yes1,5004.4¢2.5¢$37−$30$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?No418.9¢23.3¢$9.47+$5.85$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?Yes1,5001.7¢0.6¢$9.00−$16$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Yes1,7982.9¢0.1¢$0.90−$51$0
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes81742.5¢0¢$0−$347$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes5695.1¢0¢$0−$29−$0.37
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No5238¢0¢$0−$42−$1.54
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?No49656.6¢0¢$0−$281−$6.10
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Yes30916.4¢0¢$0−$51$0
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2559.6¢0¢$0−$25−$0.58
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?No10025¢0¢$0−$25−$21

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?15¢130$2079%51
BUY YesWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?99.5¢1,304$1,29879%51
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?13.6¢366$5079%51
BUY YesGemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?70.6¢366$25879%51
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?99.6¢35$3579%51
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?99.6¢260$25979%51
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?99.7¢1,248$1,24579%51
BUY YesGemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?51¢229$11779%51
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?38.3¢64$2579%51
BUY YesSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?2.9¢74$2.1579%51
BUY YesSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?2.9¢1,724$5079%51
SELL YesWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?22.9¢16$3.5779%51
SELL NoAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?97.9¢420$41279%51
SELL NoAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?98.5¢32$3279%51
BUY YesWill the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?87.4¢200$17579%51
BUY NoWill the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?99.9¢56$5679%51
BUY NoWill the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?99.4¢343$34179%51
SELL YesWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?43.9¢53$2379%51
BUY YesWill any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?95.3¢102$9779%51
BUY YesWill the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?35.8¢69$2579%51