PnL all-time+$214vol $6,973
PnL 30d+$17gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$6.20win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate64.3%adj 55.9% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$2,318cash n/a
Positions8 / 22open / all-time
Max drawdown−30.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 3mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$551below peak −$28Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
26/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale33
Adjusted win rateraw 64.3% · shrunk toward 50%40
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable45
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity70
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Noopen+$210AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yesclosed+$198DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? · Noclosed+$152US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Noclosed+$88Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? · Yesclosed+$66
Worst markets
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · Noclosed−$162Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? · Noclosed−$100AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? · Noclosed−$50Claude 4.7 released by April 17? · Noclosed−$50Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yesclosed−$10
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 1,180 | 73.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,080 | +$210 | $0 | |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | No | 297 | 79.5¢ | 95.4¢ | $283 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 203 | 77¢ | 93.5¢ | $189 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 184 | 91¢ | 98.4¢ | $181 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 177 | 88¢ | 95.9¢ | $170 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 234 | 64¢ | 63.5¢ | $149 | −$1.17 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 159 | 91¢ | 90.5¢ | $144 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 130 | 79¢ | 93.9¢ | $122 | +$19 | $0 |
Recent trades
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