| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50.8k | 60.6¢ | 84.5¢ | $43.0k | +$12.1k | −$2,471 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 42.8k | 83.8¢ | 79.5¢ | $34.0k | −$1,833 | −$195 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 17.5k | 85.9¢ | 90.5¢ | $15.9k | +$809 | −$282 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 16.5k | 88¢ | 95.6¢ | $15.8k | +$1,248 | +$435 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 20.6k | 46.7¢ | 71¢ | $14.6k | +$5,002 | +$14 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 18.8k | 74.5¢ | 75.5¢ | $14.2k | +$190 | +$1,824 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 12.8k | 62.5¢ | 67¢ | $8,597 | +$578 | $0 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 7,903 | 89.6¢ | 98.4¢ | $7,773 | +$691 | $0 | |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 5,631 | 89.9¢ | 96.1¢ | $5,411 | +$348 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? | No | 5,276 | 69.8¢ | 87.5¢ | $4,617 | +$936 | +$34 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 3,969 | 79.9¢ | 87¢ | $3,453 | +$282 | +$75 | |
| Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 3,588 | 81.3¢ | 93.1¢ | $3,341 | +$424 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 2,314 | 90.6¢ | 96.3¢ | $2,228 | +$132 | +$92 | |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | No | 1,610 | 95¢ | 96.4¢ | $1,551 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 1,679 | 89.3¢ | 88.5¢ | $1,486 | −$14 | +$24 | |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 1,347 | 88.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,287 | +$93 | +$147 | |
| Will no one dissent the October Fed decision? | No | 1,393 | 50.2¢ | 74¢ | $1,031 | +$331 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 1,021 | 89.8¢ | 94.5¢ | $964 | +$48 | +$66 | |
| Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 977 | 83.7¢ | 89.7¢ | $876 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 904 | 91.3¢ | 96.1¢ | $868 | +$43 | +$9.07 | |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 788 | 89¢ | 97.4¢ | $768 | +$66 | +$1.18 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? | Yes | 795 | 91¢ | 96.3¢ | $765 | +$42 | $0 | |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | No | 556 | 90¢ | 95.5¢ | $531 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 500 | 86¢ | 94.7¢ | $474 | +$44 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 444 | 90¢ | 94.9¢ | $422 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | Yes | 657 | 32¢ | 34.5¢ | $227 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 249 | 86¢ | 87.9¢ | $219 | +$4.73 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 221 | 85¢ | 95.5¢ | $211 | +$23 | +$3.68 | |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | No | 200 | 78¢ | 90.5¢ | $181 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 200 | 30.9¢ | 89.5¢ | $179 | +$117 | +$61 | |
| Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 166 | 88¢ | 93.3¢ | $155 | +$8.78 | $0 | |
| Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? | No | 200 | 85¢ | 76.5¢ | $153 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | No | 217 | 50.2¢ | 60.5¢ | $131 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? | Yes | 137 | 34.7¢ | 59.5¢ | $82 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | No | 244 | 47¢ | 31.3¢ | $76 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 381 | 25.8¢ | 15.5¢ | $59 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | Yes | 229 | 44.9¢ | 24.4¢ | $56 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | No | 48 | 68¢ | 99.2¢ | $48 | +$15 | $0 | |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? | No | 49 | 83¢ | 94¢ | $46 | +$5.40 | $0 | |
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026? | No | 40 | 85¢ | 87.5¢ | $35 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 334 | 23¢ | 10¢ | $33 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | Nothing | 27 | 85¢ | 93.7¢ | $25 | +$2.32 | $0 | |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | Yes | 433 | 6.9¢ | 5.5¢ | $24 | −$6.19 | $0 | |
| Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? | No | 23 | 75¢ | 95.5¢ | $22 | +$4.66 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? | Yes | 40 | 43¢ | 46.5¢ | $19 | +$1.40 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | Yes | 48 | 27¢ | 29.5¢ | $14 | +$1.19 | $0 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 20 | 55¢ | 68.7¢ | $14 | +$2.74 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? | Yes | 158 | 2.3¢ | 8.1¢ | $13 | +$9.11 | $0 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 141 | 7.5¢ | 8¢ | $11 | +$0.63 | +$729 | |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 87 | 28.6¢ | 12¢ | $10 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | Yes | 101 | 24.7¢ | 10¢ | $10 | −$15 | −$12 | |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | Yes | 200 | 27¢ | 4¢ | $7.90 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 132 | 11.3¢ | 4¢ | $5.30 | −$9.70 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | 5 | 77¢ | 94.5¢ | $4.72 | +$0.88 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in September? | Yes | 39 | 3.1¢ | 5.8¢ | $2.27 | +$1.05 | $0 | |
| Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? | No | 2 | 88¢ | 95.7¢ | $2.24 | +$0.18 | $0 | |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 235 | 17¢ | 0.3¢ | $0.59 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15.6k | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$125 | −$15 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August? | Yes | 2,300 | 4.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$102 | −$0.02 | |
| Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? | Yes | 2,000 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.97 | −$0.05 | |
| Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? | Yes | 1,800 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.16 | −$0.02 | |
| Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Yes | 1,645 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$247 | −$9.11 | |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August? | Yes | 1,600 | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.79 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June? | Yes | 1,400 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | Yes | 1,303 | 26.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$350 | −$13 | |
| Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in August? | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.59 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? | Yes | 1,000 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June? | Yes | 800 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.80 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July? | Yes | 700 | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July? | Yes | 700 | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 578 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.00 | −$0.32 | |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July? | Yes | 556 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 519 | 42.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$222 | −$6.36 | |
| Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July? | Yes | 500 | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | Yes | 500 | 32¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$160 | $0 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August? | Yes | 491 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.83 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August? | Yes | 425 | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? | Yes | 409 | 12.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | −$21 | |
| Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? | Yes | 374 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.00 | −$0.10 | |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June? | Yes | 319 | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.59 | $0 | |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July? | Yes | 300 | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | Yes | 284 | 29.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$85 | −$2.98 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 246 | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | Yes | 211 | 62¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$131 | −$66 | |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July? | Yes | 194 | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.16 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 150 | 50¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | −$9.53 | |
| Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m? | Yes | 143 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.47 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 138 | 36.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 120 | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29 | −$0.87 | |
| Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | Yes | 100 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.51 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July? | Yes | 99 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | Yes | 90 | 28¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$0.73 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? | Yes | 69 | 45¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | −$0.85 | |
| Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 63 | 40¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | −$0.60 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July? | Yes | 60 | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.54 | $0 | |
| Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | Yes | 50 | 21¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$0.19 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in August? | Yes | 48 | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.91 | $0 | |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June? | Yes | 36 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.07 | $0 | |
| Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? | Yes | 24 | 41.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10.00 | −$0.24 | |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June? | Yes | 20 | 39¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.80 | $0 | |